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Nintendo quarterly results (Switch 36.87 million)

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo quarterly results (Switch 36.87 million)

RolStoppable said:
Farsala said:

Switch will have better legs than the Wii, but that doesn't mean it isn't on a time limit. Once it finally gets a price cut, it may be too late to wring out fantastic sales.

3DS was very frontloaded in Japan, but I think most consoles are. Switch Lite will fix things, but sales might drop off quickly. After the 3DS resurgence in FY2017, Japan didn't recover like the Americas and Europe did.

Your post sounds like a softer version of the infamous "fall off a cliff" argument. If Switch doesn't accomplish something within five years, then it's never going to happen, or something like that. But new releases for Switch won't dry up and the existing library doesn't go away, so there's no urgency.

There's a Pachter version of "Switch won't sell 100m units lifetime" with the reasoning being that that would be 20m units per year which is absolutely not how console sales work. But this Pachter logic builds on the false premise that Nintendo consoles have short lifespans, so Nintendo must rush to get sales as fast as possible because there's a time limit. In that sense your post is comparable to Pachter's reasoning. With Switch being $300, it's a given that it will have multiple price cuts and such cuts are bound to happen once Switch is in danger of falling below 15m in annual shipments. The 3DS was an ill-conceived console and didn't have it in it to stay above 10m in annual shipments for more than three years, but Switch is a very different story. That's why Switch's current 13.5% advantage in LTD shipments will continue to grow by a couple of percent points each quarter, making 100m lifetime a pretty easy goal to reach.

The reason why Japan didn't recover for the 3DS like America and Europe did is that the 3DS was proportionally much more popular in Japan in the first place. The regional breakdown of the 3DS puts it roughly at 33/33/33 between Japan, Americas and Others, but the market sizes of Americas and Others are much bigger than Japan's. 3DS sales had a lot of room for growth in Americas and Others, but not so much in Japan where it was already on pace to become the third-best selling console of all time behind the GB/C and DS.

Eventually all console's sales fall off a cliff, and that typically happens when a new successor is announced.

My argument is a lot simpler than I have been stating so far.

1. All consoles have their own unique trajectory but...

2. Switch isn't outpacing fast selling consoles like the Wii (or 3DS in Japan)

3. Switch isn't outpacing leggier consoles like the PS2 or PS4.

So it seems apparent that you think it will outpace or match the PS4 in terms of legs, especially with a 125m prediction. You also keep talking about a price cut, but price cuts won't happen imo. If there is a price cut within a reasonable amount of time I would change my tune.



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Farsala said:

Eventually all console's sales fall off a cliff, and that typically happens when a new successor is announced.

My argument is a lot simpler than I have been stating so far.

1. All consoles have their own unique trajectory but...

2. Switch isn't outpacing fast selling consoles like the Wii (or 3DS in Japan)

3. Switch isn't outpacing leggier consoles like the PS2 or PS4.

So it seems apparent that you think it will outpace or match the PS4 in terms of legs, especially with a 125m prediction. You also keep talking about a price cut, but price cuts won't happen imo. If there is a price cut within a reasonable amount of time I would change my tune.

On point 3, Switch is actually outpacing the PS4 in Japan, America and globally. It's just that right now we are during the period where aligned launches give the PS4 an additional holiday season, but through 36 months Switch will be ahead just like it was through 12 and 24 months, respectively. Point 2 is similar in that Switch isn't outpacing those other consoles in each individual region, but that misses the bigger picture.

Here's the gap chart for Switch vs. PS4:
https://www.vgchartz.com/article/438517/switch-vs-ps4vgchartz-gap-chartsapril-2019-update/

The different launch timings don't allow a real like-for-like comparison, so the best reference points occur every 12 months because that means both consoles have gone through every month of the year the same amount of times.

Switch vs. Wii shows a clear Wii lead at the moment, but the same held true for PS4 vs. Wii at the same point in life. Nevertheless, the PS4 caught up to the Wii over time and with Switch keeping pace with the PS4, the same thing should be expected.

If a price cut is what it takes to change your tune, then so be it. I find it weird that you don't expect Switch to get a price cut ever, but time will take care of that.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

RolStoppable said:
Farsala said:

Eventually all console's sales fall off a cliff, and that typically happens when a new successor is announced.

My argument is a lot simpler than I have been stating so far.

1. All consoles have their own unique trajectory but...

2. Switch isn't outpacing fast selling consoles like the Wii (or 3DS in Japan)

3. Switch isn't outpacing leggier consoles like the PS2 or PS4.

So it seems apparent that you think it will outpace or match the PS4 in terms of legs, especially with a 125m prediction. You also keep talking about a price cut, but price cuts won't happen imo. If there is a price cut within a reasonable amount of time I would change my tune.

On point 3, Switch is actually outpacing the PS4 in Japan, America and globally. It's just that right now we are during the period where aligned launches give the PS4 an additional holiday season, but through 36 months Switch will be ahead just like it was through 12 and 24 months, respectively. Point 2 is similar in that Switch isn't outpacing those other consoles in each individual region, but that misses the bigger picture.

Here's the gap chart for Switch vs. PS4:
https://www.vgchartz.com/article/438517/switch-vs-ps4vgchartz-gap-chartsapril-2019-update/

The different launch timings don't allow a real like-for-like comparison, so the best reference points occur every 12 months because that means both consoles have gone through every month of the year the same amount of times.

Switch vs. Wii shows a clear Wii lead at the moment, but the same held true for PS4 vs. Wii at the same point in life. Nevertheless, the PS4 caught up to the Wii over time and with Switch keeping pace with the PS4, the same thing should be expected.

If a price cut is what it takes to change your tune, then so be it. I find it weird that you don't expect Switch to get a price cut ever, but time will take care of that.

It's true they are currently very close. However, regionally Switch will have less legs imo. In terms of Switch vs PS4, Switch's strength is Japan and Japan can only give so much.

If we are going with 1 to 1 comparisons, then I simply prefer FY 12 month comparisons. For PS4 it was X, 14.8, 20, 19, 16 and etc. For Switch it was X, 15, 17, and a prediction of 18. So Switch's highest years are being outpaced by PS4's highest years. In order for Switch to exceed or match the PS4, I would expect a FY prediction of 20m+ in the next few years.

It's not that I don't expect a price cut, I just expect it to be after 40 months, which is too late.



Barkley said:
zorg1000 said:

Mario is 1.33 million ahead of BotW

BOTW outshipped Mario again last quarter though, so it should overtake eventually though.

He also might be including WiiU numbers.

Thank you!

You have to include the WiiU numbers because both versions were released at the same time.



Valdney said:
Barkley said:

BOTW outshipped Mario again last quarter though, so it should overtake eventually though.

He also might be including WiiU numbers.

Thank you!

You have to include the WiiU numbers because both versions were released at the same time.

I am on-board with the idea that Breath of the Wild will hit 20 millions. The largest threat to that happening would be if Breath of the Wild 2. It’s hard to say, sometimes sequels help the older games (like Just Dance, where sequels heavily boosted the older sales) and sometimes they cannibalize them (like GTA PS2 where the older games stopped selling when newer ones came out).



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

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Jumpin said:
Valdney said:

Thank you!

You have to include the WiiU numbers because both versions were released at the same time.

I am on-board with the idea that Breath of the Wild will hit 20 millions. The largest threat to that happening would be if Breath of the Wild 2. It’s hard to say, sometimes sequels help the older games (like Just Dance, where sequels heavily boosted the older sales) and sometimes they cannibalize them (like GTA PS2 where the older games stopped selling when newer ones came out).

Because these games are shits, don't forget that SONY brought the concept of "garbage video game". Once a sequel comes, the previous episode instantly loses all its value, which is really opposite for Nintendo. Ocarina is today a shitty useless thing compared to Breath of the Wild, but still it is an even more respected game than the newer.



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
WR on TGM alternative mode : Fastest ITEM S9 rank ( <-- Just got massacred by the 2nd most powerfull player in the world )
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

Can we expect 30M Mario kart 8 deluxe lifetime?
For now, seems 25M is a given.

About Zelda, I don't think botw2 would impact botw sales. Part of newcomers that would buy Zelda botw would buy both now, because don't seems that botw2 is going to replace botw, like a mk9 would with 8.



jonathanalis said:
Can we expect 30M Mario kart 8 deluxe lifetime?
For now, seems 25M is a given.

About Zelda, I don't think botw2 would impact botw sales. Part of newcomers that would buy Zelda botw would buy both now, because don't seems that botw2 is going to replace botw, like a mk9 would with 8.

30M is possible, but not very certain. Yeah, 25 million seems pretty given. 22 million at the very least is very likely.

I really want Mario Kart 9. I've had Mario Kart 8 since I got a Wii U in June 2014. I even caved and got Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, but I got a decent discount on it. 

To me, Mario Kart 9 could release in 2021 or later and not steal too much of MK8D's sales. Maybe Nintendo could introduce Nintendo Selects by then, with MK8D as a budget title, and 9 as a full-price new release.

Waiting all the way until 2022-2024 for the Switch 2 to launch, and then getting a new Mario Kart after it launches seems agonizing to me. There's plenty to put in MK9. Bring back dual drivers and mission mode, and add some new characters, bring some back, etc. There's plenty of material for another new game on Switch.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

PS4: 122 mil (was 100 million) Xbox One: 55 mil (was 50 mil) Switch: 79 million

3DS: 77 mil (was 73 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

Farsala said:

It's true they are currently very close. However, regionally Switch will have less legs imo. In terms of Switch vs PS4, Switch's strength is Japan and Japan can only give so much.

If we are going with 1 to 1 comparisons, then I simply prefer FY 12 month comparisons. For PS4 it was X, 14.8, 20, 19, 16 and etc. For Switch it was X, 15, 17, and a prediction of 18. So Switch's highest years are being outpaced by PS4's highest years. In order for Switch to exceed or match the PS4, I would expect a FY prediction of 20m+ in the next few years.

It's not that I don't expect a price cut, I just expect it to be after 40 months, which is too late.

Switch is strong in Japan and the USA, that's the two biggest console markets and they can offset shortcomings in smaller markets quite easily. In Japan and the USA combined, Switch might very well beat the PS4 by 20m+ units lifetime. The PS4 needs a lot of other countries to merely level the playing field, hence why the two consoles are tracking at a similar pace worldwide.

Comparing full fiscal years:

Year PS4 Switch Notes
1 14.8m 15.05m -
2 17.7m 16.95m PS4 receives $50 price cut
3 20.0m 18.00m (projected) PS4 receives $50 price cut, Slim revision, and Pro revision introduced at $399
Switch remains at $299, sees introduction of Lite revision at $199
4 19.0m TBD -
5 17.8m TBD -
6 15.0m (projected) TBD -

It's a bit premature to draw the conclusion you did, based on only two complete years. Through the first two years the PS4 has an advantage of 0.5m, but it also received a $50 price cut during that time. Year 3 has yet to be seen if Nintendo only manages what they have forecasted.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Bofferbrauer2 said:
Amnesia said:
There are half millions of Switch in the VGC total that I can not explain, I have updated all my trimester except the last recent adjustment of 2018Q3, and I have a total of 35,33.

They are updating the numbers right now. Possibly you got to read the updated numbers, but still the old total sales?

No no..That was more stupid than that. I had simply counted only completed trimesters. I was missing the 2 first weeks of this July.



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
WR on TGM alternative mode : Fastest ITEM S9 rank ( <-- Just got massacred by the 2nd most powerfull player in the world )
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary