I was just watching this...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UHDytUyht7k

We have no clue about the last numbers of Labo ? the #4 was a flop ?

Weird way to low-ball. Aren't you supposed to start with the lower target? Sony projected 16 million for the fiscal year three months ago.

And it's pretty clear as to why they reduced it:

https://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/er/pdf/19q1_supplement.pdf

https://www.sony.net/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/er/pdf/19q1_sonypre.pdf

It's odd because the Q1 the PS4 just had is better than any Q1 the Switch has ever had and was a very solid start to the fiscal year. There's virtually no YoY decline from last year's Q1 which was 3.2 million. They may be forecasting in China tarrifs forcing them to up-price the PS4 later in the fiscal year which they have warned about. 

AAA isn't a type of IP, it's a process of how a game is made. Nintendo has dozens of franchises they can make an "AAA" out of. It's not really important to their business model because Nintendo is already outselling Sony without the need for AAA games.

Most of those franchises you listed are not only NOT Sony franchises. Not only that, they're franchises which are either already available on the Switch or will be in the future.

When taking into account Sony's actual published games, only three of them on the PS4 have shipped above 10 million (10 games total have shipped over 10 million on PS4, Horizon Zero Dawn is the only exclusive not published by Sony). After 2 years and 1 quarter on the market, Nintendo is already ahead of Sony with 5 published games exceeding 10 million, and will almost certainly have 8 by the end of the year; 9 if Astral Chain turns out to sell very well.

Another thing to consider is that Nintendo games often have much longer periods of relevance on the market than Sony games. The sales of those 5 games are still very much in progress: Breath of the Wild alone has sold 2 million units in 2019, Mario Kart 8 has sold 3 million so far this year.

Aside from dormant franchises, Nintendo has this uncanny ability to take old franchises and spin them into something brand-new. We could have a Mario RPG, a new 3D high-pace action-packed Kid Icarus game, a high-end Lylat Wars-style Star Fox game, a 3D Donkey Kong Country platformer/adventure, a new Diddy Kong Racing, a beefed-up Xenoblade Chronicles X game (which is basically its own thing), a new Health-Pack/Fit game (actually shocked Nintendo hasn't dipped into this well yet), 1080 Snowboarding (we're due for a major snowboard title), they could resurrect the Cruisin franchise and pump it up. And these aren't just random guesses, Nintendo has already done this in past generations - they just haven't released anything this generation yet in those styles.

You can't really make a serious argument that any company has an intellectual property library as deep as Nintendo. Additionally, the Switch isn't a console whose sales trajectory you can predict since there's never been a console-like Switch released before; additionally, Switch's sales trajectory is already different from any past consoles, and the fact that it has multiple form factors with multiple pricing tiers is a new game for dedicated console platforms. It can be noted that Switch managed to stay on par with PS4 sales with no price drop (PS4 had its first in less than 2 years) and it's first real shift in price models will occur later this year with the new models.

Can Switch sell 40 million+ in the next 2 years? It's possible when taking the variables into account. The new models, price points, a massive IP about to release, and the current actively selling software. All of these factors create a lot of hooks for new customers: someone who wants Zelda or Mario Kart but doesn't want to pay above 200 USD for a Switch will now be purchasing one; Pokemon fans who didn't have a Switch yet will now be purchasing one; new people who are interested in being a part of Switch's growing library of local multiplayer games will continue purchasing them (IMO, this is the main force selling the Switch right now, but I work in an office with a lot of gamers, so that is my window).

What we can say without a doubt:
* Nintendo will extend its lead as the top publisher by a significant margin this generation.
* The Nintendo Switch will sell many tens of millions of more units.
* The Nintendo Switch will have the most games that exceed the 10 million mark.

I wonder whether it's already passed the Xbox One or if it's neck to neck. To be sure we'd need Microsoft to release official figures.

Regardless I think it's safe to say that even if the Switch hasn't passed the Xbox, it will for sure soon...

Uh, Horizon Zero Dawn is published by Sony. And Sony have published 5 games over 10m sales on PS4.

God of War
Spiderman
Horizon Zero Dawn
TLOU Remastered
Uncharted 4

Also did you just suggest Astral Chain could sell over 10m?

Mario Party Switch continues to sell about 150,000 per month and will probably join the 10 million club in 2020. Astral Chain is a big unknown - my gut says it will sell low, but Switch games tend to surprise. Astral Chain seemed much more widely appealing than I previously thought it would be before I played it. My issue came with the fact that the developer tends to make very niche action titles like Madworld and Bayonetta; Astral Chain is a different kind of game, it kind of reminded me of FFX somehow.

Like I said earlier, shipments were flat YoY but sell-through probably wasn't as high as they were expecting. We have gotten data for places like US, Japan and i think a few European countries and all tell the same story of a pretty notable decline (something like ~30%)

Lots of gorgeous numbers here. BotW already the first Zelda to sell 15+ million in a single release, soon to become the first Zelda to sell 15+ million in a single SKU. Promising for the title to maybe become Zelda's first 20+ million seller. Mario Kart 8 looks destined for 20+ million as well (already is if you count Wii U sales), and possibly Odyssey and Ultimate as well. Splatoon on the verge of 10+ million, Super Mario Party might reach that as well and become the series' best seller. I remember us all making these crazy predictions and feeling like we knew they were crazy but that they felt like they could actually come true, now they're on the verge of doing so.

Also holy shit think about the attach rates here! There are 36 million Switches in people's hands, and MULTIPLE games that have sold to between a third and a half of that number. Even the Wii only had 5 games that sold to a quarter, and only 10 games that even sold to a TENTH of its base. And you can't simply blame the Wii having a bigger and thus more diverse audience to have to sell to, because the N64 had only 1 game to sell to over a third of its audience, 2 to a quarter, and 12 titles to a tenth. Meanwhile Switch has 4 going on 5 selling to a third, one of which is nearly at 50%, 6 titles selling to a quarter, and already nearly has 10 selling to a tenth and that's before either a mainline Pokemon or Animal Crossing, or Luigi's Mansion, and Super Mario Maker could get there eventually, and all this when we're only halfway through the life cycle.

I think there's been a mistake. Astral Chain isn't made by Monolith Soft.