125m LTD?

vs. Current

Japan 8.76m (35%)

Americas: 14.84m  (30%)

Europe: 9.6m (27%)

Other: 3.69m (25%)

As we go down the list the undertaking gets more difficult. How do you expect Europe and Others to rebound?

125m means a comparison with the Wii or (current sales) PS4 would be valid, since it should far surpass the Wii and match the PS4. 25m in Japan means a comparison with 3DS would be valid, since it should match it.

In Japan it is 8.76m Switch vs 12.18m 3DS, or 72%. It is certainly probable that Switch will make great strides with Switch Lite.

50m in Americas would make the Switch a better seller than the Wii and much better than PS4, but its current pace does not match that.

35m in Europe and 15m in Others would also make the Switch a better seller than the Wii, and closely behind the PS4.

A strict price cut isn't happening as we have confirmed the new SKU of Switch as well as the Lite.

Nintendo then goes on to pack a free copy of 1-2-Switch with every revised Switch model.

My predictions

Japan 20-25m

Americas 40-45m

Europe 25-30m

Other 10-15m

Total 95-115m

Yeah basically what I'd say.

Japan will have to accelerate a lot for that, as Europe is already accelerating and also proably going to enjoy a big boost from the Lite.

Other might get interesting once it starts selling in China. In fact, I'm pretty sure this is the reason why they separated Europe from the Other region.

In every of my scenarios, I never see the Switch passing the PS4 at the end.

I have counted  with a powerfull 4,5 millions for the next Q with the Lite Launch.

Those numbers seem extraordinarily low. The population of Earth is 7.53 billion, and only 36 million bought a Switch? I'm not the best in math, but I am pretty sure this is less than 10% of the human market share; really sad Nintendo! If Nintendo ran things correctly they could have sold 100 billion units by now. Nintendo is DOOMED.

Looks like people DO want singleplayer games, as long as they are extremely good.  Perhaps what these publishers mean is, "no one wants to play our singleplayer games anymore."

I don't know why I want to answer seriously to this...

7,53 billion....Let's ignore the conspiracy theory which pretends that we would in fact be around 4,5.

So, 7,53, but probably only 2 billions with the capacity to pay for a Switch.

Among these 2 billions, only 1 knows well enough what is Nintendo.

Then only 300 millions of these last 1 billion are in the segment of the population in condition to buy a Switch (15-50 years old with enough freetime to spend on unproductive activity)

So you are right somehow, only 10% of the potential consumers have bought a Switch. 300 millions could be a number reached by the Switch if there was no other way to play video games.

It depends on what kind of sales curve you used.  The 3DS and Wii U have similar shaped curves (very front loaded).  The Wii and the Gameboy Advance have a different shaped sales curve.  And then there is the Gameboy, which sales curve is extremely different from the others.  In order to know what kind of sales to model future sales, you need to know what kind of situation the Switch is in, and which past consoles had a similar situation.  That will determine if you think Switch is in "slow mode" right now or if you think sales are going to "fall off a cliff" (or somewhere in between).

I personally think the Switch's sales curve will have a shape most similar to the NES.  (DS is also pretty similar.)  With the NES, Nintendo was making first party games for only one system, and also there were really two groups (Japan and US) with one group largely coming in a lot later than the other.  I see Switch as very similar to this, but in this case the two groups are home and handheld gamers, and I expect the home gamers to come in later in large numbers (although we should start seeing the beginning of it this year).  Run the numbers using proportional sales from the NES, with 1983 NES corresponding to 2017 Switch and see what kind of sales you get.