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Ps4 @100mill shipped!

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LordLichtenstein said:
colafitte said:

As this gen have proved, Sony will go for pure profits, not raw sales numbers. I don't expect 50M sold after Nov 2020, or 30, or 20..... If PS4 sells 10-15M more after PS5 launches at 299-249$ they will be happy. 

So my guess is still the same...around 130M sold lifetime, and by far, the most succesful and profitable Playstation console ever.

130M seems very irrational to me. By November 2020, when PS5 launches, PS4's LTD should be around 116-118M. Are you seriously suggesting that PS4 will only sell 12-14M after PS5 launches? 

Yes. Let me expain.

Units shipped by (calendar year):

end of 2018 - 94'2M shipped

end of 2019 they ship 15M this year -> 109M lifetime

end of 2020 (by the time PS5 launches) -> 8-10M that year -> 117-119M lifetime

The moment PS5 launches, i don't expect any price cuts for PS4, or really big ones.

end of 2021 -> 5M that year -> 122-124M lifetime

and in the next few years around 6-10M shipped more, so yes, around 10-15M more after PS5 launches and around 130M shipped in total in the end, more or less.

PS3 only sold 7M after PS4 launched....If PS4 sells 15M after PS5 it won't be irrational at all in my opinion. Remember, all of this based in a console still at 249-299$.



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Barkley said:
LordLichtenstein said:

I .. actually .. believe .. PS4 has a chance of reaching PS2. If Sony's estimates hold up, PS4 will have shipped 112M LTD by March 2020, leaving it only 43M short of the PS2.

Sony has yet to lower the price of the PS4 to $199, and exclusive games such as Death Stranding, The Last of Us - Part II, Ghost of Tsushima, Dreams and Final Fantasy VII Remake has yet to release - and let us not forget CD Project Red's juggernaut, Cyberpunk 2077, is releasing next year as well. Exciting times ahead.

For comparison this is what other PlayStation consoles shipped after the successor launched:

PS1 - ~29m

PS2 - ~48m

PS3 - 7m

So while the likely 38m it would need to ship after PS5 launches isn't unheard of, I really don't think it can do it. I'll be pleasantly surprised if it manages half of that post-ps5.

A lot of it does depend on the strategy Sony go for I guess.

Yeah, the PS1 and PS2 had legs due to late launches in a significant amount of countries. PS3 didn't have late launches and neither will the PS4.  Sony is also going for profit and until they change my mind with price cuts, I don't think they will surpass 115m-125m sales.



Kudos Sony, really impressive.
Now go give the thing a price cut, not lowball the forecast, PS4 has gotten you all it could, improve even more the userbase to grow PS+ even further is a better strategy now. The profit you'll lose with each console will be mitigated by the extra subscriptions and be well rewarded into the PS5 gen.
100M is enough, PS4 needs to be at least at $250 now and $200 by the time you announce the PS5.
It's time, do it.

Also VGC numbers beetwen PS4 and Switch were making no sense as expected (the team does what it can, keep up with your work, I really appreciate it), so it's time for some big adjustments here and there.



Farsala said:
Barkley said:

For comparison this is what other PlayStation consoles shipped after the successor launched:

PS1 - ~29m

PS2 - ~48m

PS3 - 7m

So while the likely 38m it would need to ship after PS5 launches isn't unheard of, I really don't think it can do it. I'll be pleasantly surprised if it manages half of that post-ps5.

A lot of it does depend on the strategy Sony go for I guess.

Yeah, the PS1 and PS2 had legs due to late launches in a significant amount of countries. PS3 didn't have late launches and neither will the PS4.  Sony is also going for profit and until they change my mind with price cuts, I don't think they will surpass 115m-125m sales.

Yeah looking into it further, price cuts no doubt play a huge part in PS1/PS2 legs, they got ridiculously cheap. Here's the last official price cuts I can find for USA.

PS1 - $49 (May 2002)
PS2 - $99 (April 2009)
PS3 - $269 (Super Slim Launch) (September 2012)

It's crazy to think that the PS3's RRP was only dropped to a minimum of $269 and recieved no price cut after the PS4. It's no wonder it's legs were so short.

So PS4's legs post-ps5 all depend on if it gets a price cut, and how far down they can go. A $49 console... I had no idea PS1 went that low. xD

Source: https://vgsales.fandom.com/wiki/Price_cuts



Predictions (Made July 2019)

LTD: PS4 - 130m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 52m       2019 : PS4 - 15m, Switch - 18.8m, XBO - 4.8m        2020: Switch - 22m (Peak Year)


I know it's not sold , but it i can bet my ear that it will be sold 100M for 6 month a head . So...Bring it in the Champagne 



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Barkley said:

PS1 - $49 (May 2002)
PS2 - $99 (April 2009)
PS3 - $269 (Super Slim Launch) (September 2012)

It's crazy to think that the PS3's RRP was only dropped to a minimum of $269 and recieved no price cut after the PS4. It's no wonder it's legs were so short.

So PS4's legs post-ps5 all depend on if it gets a price cut, and how far down they can go. A $49 console... I had no idea PS1 went that low. xD

Source: https://vgsales.fandom.com/wiki/Price_cuts

Just to add onto this with adjusted for inflation prices:

PS1 - $69
PS2 - $118
PS3 - $300

So the PS3 at it's cheapest RRP is the same as the current RRP of the PS4. Mental. Guess they really never managed to get production costs down that far and that really shows why the PS3 legs were so bad.

We'll never see a console as cheap as the ps2 again though, even adjusted for inflation. The controllers are far more expensive to produce then they were, the now necessary inclusion of storage also drives up the minimum possible price.



Predictions (Made July 2019)

LTD: PS4 - 130m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 52m       2019 : PS4 - 15m, Switch - 18.8m, XBO - 4.8m        2020: Switch - 22m (Peak Year)


Took a little more than it should for the HW this semester.

But it done great on SW, and digital increased even more. They have been doing a lot of flash sales though.

A little disappointed on the PS+ numbers though, the attach ratio dropped from near 50% to about 33%. Plus it seems like the first time they lowered a forecast, they may have done one before in PS4 time but I don't remember. At least they met all the projections.

Last edited by DonFerrari - on 30 July 2019

duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Barkley said:
Barkley said:

PS1 - $49 (May 2002)
PS2 - $99 (April 2009)
PS3 - $269 (Super Slim Launch) (September 2012)

It's crazy to think that the PS3's RRP was only dropped to a minimum of $269 and recieved no price cut after the PS4. It's no wonder it's legs were so short.

So PS4's legs post-ps5 all depend on if it gets a price cut, and how far down they can go. A $49 console... I had no idea PS1 went that low. xD

Source: https://vgsales.fandom.com/wiki/Price_cuts

Just to add onto this with adjusted for inflation prices:

PS1 - $69
PS2 - $118
PS3 - $300

So the PS3 at it's cheapest RRP is the same as the current RRP of the PS4. Mental. Guess they really never managed to get production costs down that far and that really shows why the PS3 legs were so bad.

We'll never see a console as cheap as the ps2 again though, even adjusted for inflation. The controllers are far more expensive to produce then they were, the now necessary inclusion of storage also drives up the minimum possible price.

Sony can sell the current PS4 slim at 199$ without loss imo, and probably tiny bit of profit.
If they actually do a super slim (7nm shrink), they *might* be able to sell at 149$ without a loss.

The possibility of a super slim (with a good price) would def. help, it increase those legs after the PS5.
Not quite as cheap as the PS2 was (after inflation) but not that far from it (118$ vs 149$).

Plus with this many units sold,.... does anyone expect 3rd party to just abandon it, the day PS5 launches?
There will be multiplats, that have both PS4 + PS5 versions at launch, for years to come, due to how popular the PS4 is.



This is what I think will happen:

06½ Years - FY19: April 1st 2019 - March 31st 2020 = 15.00M (111.8M)
07½ Years - FY20: April 1st 2020 - March 31st 2021 = 12.50M (124.3M) - $249 
08½ Years - FY21: April 1st 2021 - March 31st 2022 = 10.00M (134.3M)
09½ Years - FY22: April 1st 2022 - March 31st 2023 = 07.50M (141.8M) - $199
10½ Years - FY23: April 1st 2023 - March 31st 2024 = 05.00M (146.8M)
11½ Years - FY24: April 1st 2024 - March 31st 2025 = 02.50M (149.3M) - Discontinue

If PS5 launches at $499, then these numbers might be higher - and PS4 might catch PS2. Or so I hope. 



JRPGfan said:

Sony can sell the current PS4 slim at 199$ without loss imo, and probably tiny bit of profit.
If they actually do a super slim (7nm shrink), they *might* be able to sell at 149$ without a loss.

The possibility of a super slim (with a good price) would def. help, it increase those legs after the PS5.
Not quite as cheap as the PS2 was (after inflation) but not that far from it (118$ vs 149$).

Plus with this many units sold,.... does anyone expect 3rd party to just abandon it, the day PS5 launches?
There will be multiplats, that have both PS4 + PS5 versions at launch, for years to come, due to how popular the PS4 is.

3rd parties didn't really abandon the PS3 either. Destiny, Watch Dogs, Shadow of Mordor, AC Rogue, FF XIII Lightning Returns, South Park Stick of Truth, Dark Souls 2, Metal Gear Solid 5, Alien Isolation, Borderlands Presequel, CoD Advanced Warfare/Blackops 3, Far Cry 4, Resident Evil Revelations 2. Though you're right that PS4 support should be better.

$149 might be possible, though I don't expect we'll see it happen. If it did drop to $149 though I could see it actually beating the PS2. We're not even down to $249 yet though.



Predictions (Made July 2019)

LTD: PS4 - 130m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 52m       2019 : PS4 - 15m, Switch - 18.8m, XBO - 4.8m        2020: Switch - 22m (Peak Year)