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Ps4 @100mill shipped!

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Bofferbrauer2 said:
colafitte said:

And Switch seems to have done 2'1M shipped this quarter and it's 36'87M shipped lifetime in total....It has to be overtracked here, right?

Yes, certainly a bit. Not too much, I presume however, due to the new models incoming and shortages already showing up left and right, which means not much in transit.

I'd say PS4 is about 300k undertracked and Switch the same amount overtracked

That could be possible.

I really think PS4 is going to show a huge decline in next Q2 compared to last year and they seem to expect another great decline in Q3 too. So i really think they must have overshipped this quarter. If they have surpassed 100M shipped by the end of June it won't be too surprising if they in fact sold around 98M to consumers.

As for Switch, 36'9M at the end of June should mean (despite preparing for Switch Lite) that Switch must have sold around 35'0-35'5M to consumers.

So yes, Switch should not be too much overtracked, a few 100k's but PS4 must be close to 1'0M at least undertracked in my opinion. 3M or more in transit in this period of the year is just too much, it's Holiday season levels. 2M in fact is already too high in normal conditions but i can believe it possible.



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twintail said:
LordLichtenstein said:

I .. actually .. believe .. PS4 has a chance of reaching PS2. If Sony's estimates hold up, PS4 will have shipped 112M LTD by March 2020, leaving it only 43M short of the PS2.

Sony has yet to lower the price of the PS4 to $199, and exclusive games such as Death Stranding, The Last of Us - Part II, Ghost of Tsushima, Dreams and Final Fantasy VII Remake has yet to release - and let us not forget CD Project Red's juggernaut, Cyberpunk 2077, is releasing next year as well. Exciting times ahead.

PS4 might be shipping faster than the PS2 but I doubt it will reach those sales. I think it has a life after PS5 but probably not for as long as the PS4. I guess it depends on the PS5 price and what still releases on the PS4 post PS5. Will be fun to watch.

https://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/1156086524397727745/photo/1

I'm certain PS5 will launch at $499. If Sony lowers the price of PS4 to $199 or $249, I don't see why it can't catch PS2. Also, let us not forget that PS5 is confirmed to be PS4 BC. That will surely play in PS4's favour as well.



Main highlights-
PS4 HW: 100m
PS4 SW: Over 1 billion
PS+ Subs: 36.2+ million

Not bad.
Didnt even notice the over 1bn in software until I saw a tweet by ZhugeEX

Avg PS4 user has bought more than 10 games.
How many consoles reach attachment rates this high? and PS4 will still have a few years more to build that up.



LordLichtenstein said:

I .. actually .. believe .. PS4 has a chance of reaching PS2. If Sony's estimates hold up, PS4 will have shipped 112M LTD by March 2020, leaving it only 43M short of the PS2.

Sony has yet to lower the price of the PS4 to $199, and exclusive games such as Death Stranding, The Last of Us - Part II, Ghost of Tsushima, Dreams and Final Fantasy VII Remake has yet to release - and let us not forget CD Project Red's juggernaut, Cyberpunk 2077, is releasing next year as well. Exciting times ahead.

For comparison this is what other PlayStation consoles shipped after the successor launched:

PS1 - ~29m

PS2 - ~48m

PS3 - 7m

So while the likely 38m it would need to ship after PS5 launches isn't unheard of, I really don't think it can do it. I'll be pleasantly surprised if it manages half of that post-ps5.

A lot of it does depend on the strategy Sony go for I guess.



Predictions (Made July 2019)

LTD: PS4 - 130m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 52m       2019 : PS4 - 15m, Switch - 18.8m, XBO - 4.8m        2020: Switch - 22m (Peak Year)

colafitte said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Yes, certainly a bit. Not too much, I presume however, due to the new models incoming and shortages already showing up left and right, which means not much in transit.

I'd say PS4 is about 300k undertracked and Switch the same amount overtracked

That could be possible.

I really think PS4 is going to show a huge decline in next Q2 compared to last year and they seem to expect another great decline in Q3 too. So i really think they must have overshipped this quarter. If they have surpassed 100M shipped by the end of June it won't be too surprising if they in fact sold around 98M to consumers.

As for Switch, 36'9M at the end of June should mean (despite preparing for Switch Lite) that Switch must have sold around 35'0-35'5M to consumers.

So yes, Switch should not be too much overtracked, a few 100k's but PS4 must be close to 1'0M at least undertracked in my opinion. 3M or more in transit in this period of the year is just too much, it's Holiday season levels. 2M in fact is already too high in normal conditions but i can believe it possible.

Or in fact the ps4 is still selling verry,verry well and they didnt "overship" like you think they did, they lowered there forecast to 15mill thats just 1mill less.

And lets not forget the actual sales always have been more then what sony forecast.



 

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Barkley said:
LordLichtenstein said:

I .. actually .. believe .. PS4 has a chance of reaching PS2. If Sony's estimates hold up, PS4 will have shipped 112M LTD by March 2020, leaving it only 43M short of the PS2.

Sony has yet to lower the price of the PS4 to $199, and exclusive games such as Death Stranding, The Last of Us - Part II, Ghost of Tsushima, Dreams and Final Fantasy VII Remake has yet to release - and let us not forget CD Project Red's juggernaut, Cyberpunk 2077, is releasing next year as well. Exciting times ahead.

For comparison this is what other PlayStation consoles shipped after the successor launched:

PS1 - ~29m

PS2 - ~48m

PS3 - 7m

So while the likely 38m it would need to ship after PS5 launches isn't unheard of, I really don't think it can do it. I'll be pleasantly surprised if it manages half of that post-ps5.

A lot of it does depend on the strategy Sony go for I guess.

As this gen have proved, Sony will go for pure profits, not raw sales numbers. I don't expect 50M sold after Nov 2020, or 30, or 20..... If PS4 sells 10-15M more after PS5 launches at 299-249$ they will be happy. 

So my guess is still the same...around 130M sold lifetime, and by far, the most succesful and profitable Playstation console ever.



Bravo Sony !
It's been a perfect storm this gen.
130 million+ when it's all said and done ending as the 3rd best selling console of all time. (Prediction)
Bring on the PS5.



colafitte said:
Barkley said:

For comparison this is what other PlayStation consoles shipped after the successor launched:

PS1 - ~29m

PS2 - ~48m

PS3 - 7m

So while the likely 38m it would need to ship after PS5 launches isn't unheard of, I really don't think it can do it. I'll be pleasantly surprised if it manages half of that post-ps5.

A lot of it does depend on the strategy Sony go for I guess.

As this gen have proved, Sony will go for pure profits, not raw sales numbers. I don't expect 50M sold after Nov 2020, or 30, or 20..... If PS4 sells 10-15M more after PS5 launches at 299-249$ they will be happy. 

So my guess is still the same...around 130M sold lifetime, and by far, the most succesful and profitable Playstation console ever.

130M seems very irrational to me. By November 2020, when PS5 launches, PS4's LTD should be around 116-118M. Are you seriously suggesting that PS4 will only sell 12-14M after PS5 launches? 



LordLichtenstein said:
colafitte said:

As this gen have proved, Sony will go for pure profits, not raw sales numbers. I don't expect 50M sold after Nov 2020, or 30, or 20..... If PS4 sells 10-15M more after PS5 launches at 299-249$ they will be happy. 

So my guess is still the same...around 130M sold lifetime, and by far, the most succesful and profitable Playstation console ever.

130M seems very irrational to me. By November 2020, when PS5 launches, PS4's LTD should be around 116-118M. Are you seriously suggesting that PS4 will only sell 12-14M after PS5 launches? 

Honestly if they stick with 299$ forever.... something like that could happend.
I just think most of us expect them to do a price cut at some point, to push sales for the last bit of the gen and after.

I wouldnt be surprised, if after the PS5 launches, the PS4 still manages to overall do another 20m or so total.



Congrats Sony. Can't wait for PS5. Wake me up when PS5 is released.



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