As everyone know, there is a conference hold by Nintendo and Tencent at Shanghai August 2nd at 9:30 am local time...I can't find anymore the schedule but it looked like a 3 hours event with multiple parts in the program. This is not to announce that the administrative process has failed, or to tell that the Switch might come to China in 2025.

They will announce an imminent launch and they planned to announce it in loud conditions (physical event)

Just at the bottom of this goddamn picture, we see the upper part of the table which contains the schedule detailed, impossible to find anymore the complete view.

So if I share my personnal estimations, without China, and in considering that the Lite will have a succesful launch (with sticks fixed quickly...), my last number had increased to 120 millions of shipped Switch worldwide. This would give 40 millions for North America which count for 30-35% of the total.

There might be 400 millions of potentiel chinese consumers, who have a similar purchase capacity as Western Europe and North America, but people there were not especially waiting for Nintendo's latest big product...There might be still a lot of energy to spend for Nintendo to develop the sales there.

So my estimation goes for a good 12 millions for China, which would increase the global shipment from a 120 to 132 millions for me.

I've got no sense for China. I'm still waiting to find out more about how China will receive an actual console. It could be almost nothing, or it could be a huge ton. My biggest skepticism about China has to do with supply though. Nintendo is about to have trouble supplying the places where it is well established. I am not sure how they can supply China at the same time. It might just make Nintendo even more short supplied.

In the end, I still think Switch total sales will surpass PS2 even before China is taken into account. After adding in China who knows? It might be a drop in the bucket or it might double their total sales. I need to see how Nintendo is received there before I can decide.

I can't imagine the Switch beating the PS2 with no new 3rd party games from 2021 ported anymore. The Switch would need to sell well until 2026 to reach 150M.

You should have given a vote anyway...The middle of the Gaussian curve obtained with many votes should give a realistic estimation.

2-4 million if I am realisticly.

The Chinese gaming culture is not like Japan's but rather like South Korea.

When I was/am in China/south Korea I always saw the same phenomenon. Ugh my girlfriend don't want to sit home and play pc games today so we are going out to basically a PC bar that were extremely cheap, even in South Korea where you could spend an evening for just a few bucks and have any game you want to play.

We had an article years ago about how they wanted to organize a Melee tournament in South Korea in a local gameshop they basically asked country wide for players and only founded 8 contestants with a few of them being expats.

The share of households in SK with a video gaming console has shrunk to 5% (coming from 10% years earlier).

It is hard to sell a console in countries where gamedevs make 99% PC/Mobile games.

Ofcourse if Switch comes with some very popular Chinese games sure it could increase the sales but don't create big hopes...After the early august meeting we probably know more.

Also want to add this picture:

I'm going for less than 2m. But, really, I have no f-ing idea. Nobody does, as there is no precedent.

I have created this topic to have this kind of accurate opinion to feed mine...I have actually sold all my share 3 days ago, seeing the start of the share decrease linked to the drift problem, and imagining a very negative scenario with a huge quantity of Lite ready to take the boat equiped with screwed up sticks...Then 3 hours after that I sold everything, I see that Nintendo will refund and replace the joycons, and I also see the press event at Shanghai...

I have regreted my move, and I was hoping for a potential room to buy again, on August 1st precisely between the financial report when they automaticaly get a -5% hit whatever their report is, and the Shanghai event which could conclude on a strong surge of the share.

The number of third party games on the Switch is accelerating and will continue to accelerate.  Most Japanese games from here on are going to be on the Switch.  Western games?  Who knows.  But Japan is so heavily for the Switch that 90%+ of its third party games are going to get a Switch version (exclusive or multiplat).  This is going to keep Switch going strong enough to pass the PS2.

Some crazy predictions in here. Switch would be lucky to ship more than 1m in China, because... it's China. China could ban all consoles again at a moment's notice. China also takes a lot of time to release games, and most video game publishers likes to release their games in simplified Chinese as well. So that makes game release time take awhile, so Chinese sales will be slow until the games come.

Shame, I wish I had more votes here, but the tendency seems to go for a 6-8 millions for China.
I also had an hypothesis, feel free to answer with agressivity this time if you think it deserves it but at least I will know if my thought are coherent or not.
I always believed that the XBOX1 was performing poorly in Japan, because many japanese did not want to buy the console from the console maker from the country who destroyed them in 1945... Will the Chinese people be attracted from the console maker, from the country who considered them as "slave stock" for centuries ?

lol, they will ship one unit and then the Chinese will copy it and sell a cheaper Ninten swich! . Really though, the knock offs issue is pretty bad in China. I wouldn’t expect a ton of sales here... the Chinese people will be able to buy a knock off that plays all the switch games for half the price...