I know Sony's forecast. But it's already trailing last year by almost 2M. In other words, Sony would need to sell as many consoles as it did last year during it's second half, and I don't see that happening at all. It's at 140k weekly now while the lowest it got last year was 200k, with September and October being 300k weekly and 1.6M on BF. Even with a $100 pricecut/cheaper superslim, even with Concrete Genie and Death Stranding, I don't see that happening. The baseline just dropped too low already. Hence why I said 14M at best this year.

Also, the forecast is for the FY, so April through March. But even then, in just one quarter, the PS4's sales dropped by over 1M already. And I'm certain they gonna revise the numbers downwards after the holiday season.

As for the PS3, keep in mind that the PS3 had a slow buildup and peaked only in 2011. It also had less market coverage at the time than the PS4 has right now. PS3 also didn't drop nearly as hard in sales in 2012, the year before it's launch, as it's doing this year. In fact, 2012 was just a 2M drop - just like what we had last year for the PS4. It then dropped by a third in the following year - which is what the PS4 will do this year if there's no $100 pricecut or a Superslim at $199 to catch up the sales somewhat.

NS a little down, but still dominating totally unopposed, as PS4, still strong, is following the natural course of an ending gen leader console, and there never were much direct competition with NS. PS4 needs a price cut this Autumn simply due to its age, and having to stay healthy enough until PS5 launch.
NS OTOH is marching unstoppable towards its domination years, this will be the first of at least two, most probably three, and playing well its cards, maybe even four years.
This will also bring us many 3rd party multiplat games, developed on NS first and then scaled up for other platforms, with very frugal minimum system requirements, allowing the widest PC gaming audiens and keeping dev costs very reasonable, many devs and publishers will thrive thanks to this for the next years.

A lot of Switches this week again.

As for PS4 lifetime sales. It's definately looking like PS4 wont hit it's forecast. Even if they release a Superslim and cut prices even more they have lost a huge chunk of their pace from last year already and I cant see them make that up.

Sony announced it had shipped 98.6M units in late April so we should at the very least close in on 100M if not already even though I think they would have made some sort of PR if they did ship 100M units.

130M might be achievable, but as a floor? that's bold. Another 32M consoles shipped is still a lot of consoles.. my guess would be somewhere in the 120-130M range

I think the all digital Xbone came way too late, and was priced too high.  If they sell it at $99 with 3 months of Gamepass this holiday season, it might do something.  That would also seem to be consistent with their push to increase services revenue, without care for hardware sales.  They'd get more people into the family with the low upfront cost, then hope to extract $100+ per year from them with services.  

The same thing might be even more effective in 2020, with the launch of Halo: Infinite.  

In any case, I'm curious to see what everyone does over the next few years as some companies focus on traditional business models, while others move in a different direction.  I suspect that we'll see a lot of different ideas thrown at the wall.  It may be a while before we know which ones stick.  

Are we still in some kind of bizarro world where people expect the PS4 to hit 100M-110M and just suddenly stop selling?

Always surprise me how bad Xbox is doing

I don't think it's that bold.

PS4 has been $300 for a long time, I think a drop to $250 then later $200 would bring in a large influx of low budget buyers, and that with PS5 looking to be a $500 proposition, a cheap $200 alternative will do well into 2021 and even 2022 much like PS2 did into 2006 and beyond.

There's also market saturation. The writings are on the wall, PS4 has dropped off significantly this year and I dont think it has much to do with price. I dont think priced down revisions will do as much as some expect. It's definately going to help but we're still looking at 32M+ for hardware, the console market is not the same now as it was when the PS2 was the evergreen console. Though one must consider that it's possible that PS5 takes the early route of PS3 and if that was to happen.. it would definately help the PS4's legs. I dont think Sony will make that mistake again though.

Going by the "PS4/XBO/NS - 2018 vs 2019" thread, you notice that the PS4 is down ~25% vs 2018.

"I dont think it has much to do with price." -Mboli

Then why did the amazon prime day price drops have such a huge effect on sales? in the US.
Theres clearly still demand, if the price is right. There was like 5-6 sku's of PS4's ahead of the highest ranked Switch sku.
price still plays a huge part.

So I think its too early to say, demand is just down 25% and theres nothing sony can do about it, so this year will only be a ~14m year.

If they do a perm price drop, I'm pretty sure they can get to 16m+ sales.

But only if the pricedrop is $100, $50 won't cut it.

And even then, taking just Prime day (which is a one day promotion) for everyday sales is pretty dangerous. Sure, the first days, demand will be very high, and the baseline will definitely be higher afterwards, but the question is by how much. I expect a worldwide $50 pricecut to just be enough for a 30-40k increase in the baseline now after a spike in the first weeks. That wouldn't be enough to even reach last year's sales anymore.

A $100 pricecut of $199 Superslim could do it, here I do expect a rise in the baseline of 60-90k. But every day without any cut or superslim makes it just more and more difficult to achieve.