Quantcast
Global Hardware 6 July 2019

Forums - Latest Charts - Global Hardware 6 July 2019

People saying the ps4 is going to sell 140 million reminds me of the people who said the ps3 was going to sell 100 million just before the ps4 released.



Around the Network
CGI-Quality said:
pikashoe said:

I'd say between 110 and 120 million is more likely.

Both predictions will prove too low.

If the PS5 flops and people continue buying the PS4 instead, yes.

Otherwise, it's getting tough to imagine the PS4 still selling over 120M. It's already close to 2M down compared to same time last year (2M should be reached in 2 weeks), and the gap keeps growing faster. Even a $100 cheaper Superslim could only do so much anymore, and the longer it takes before it's getting released, the harder it will get to get to 120M and over.

For the record, I expect the PS4 to sell another 7M (without a Superslim) to 9M (with a superslim releasing this year), making it 12-14M for this year and 104-106M total sales. Next year, with the PS5 reveal, I expect the sales to come crashing down to about 6-7M, so 110M-113M, and an additional 4-5M after that, so 114M-118M total. Not far below the 120M, mind you, but not past it either.



pikashoe said:
People saying the ps4 is going to sell 140 million reminds me of the people who said the ps3 was going to sell 100 million just before the ps4 released.

I didn't see anyone say 140 million.

I said 130 million; I think the situation is different to PS3 as PS4's price can be brought lower due to not using exotic custom chips and hence I think it will sell for longer after PS5 comes out as a $200 entry level system.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
CGI-Quality said:

Both predictions will prove too low.

If the PS5 flops and people continue buying the PS4 instead, yes.

Otherwise, it's getting tough to imagine the PS4 still selling over 120M. It's already close to 2M down compared to same time last year (2M should be reached in 2 weeks), and the gap keeps growing faster. Even a $100 cheaper Superslim could only do so much anymore, and the longer it takes before it's getting released, the harder it will get to get to 120M and over.

For the record, I expect the PS4 to sell another 7M (without a Superslim) to 9M (with a superslim releasing this year), making it 12-14M for this year and 104-106M total sales. Next year, with the PS5 reveal, I expect the sales to come crashing down to about 6-7M, so 110M-113M, and an additional 4-5M after that, so 114M-118M total. Not far below the 120M, mind you, but not past it either.

"Next year, with the PS5 reveal, I expect the sales to come crashing down to about 6-7M" - The PS3 sold 8.2m in 2013, the PS4 was revealed February 2013... there's no way the PS4 crashes down to 6-7m and sells even worse than the ps3 did in this time frame.

Sony's forecast is 16m shipped this fiscal year. Which would mean 112.8m shipped by March 31st 2020?

For them to ship less than 120m would be insane.

FY 2013/2014 - 7.5m
FY 2014/2015 - 14.8m
FY 2015/2016 - 17.7m
FY 2016/2017 -  20m
FY 2017/2018 - 19m
FY 2018/2019 - 17.8m
FY 2019/2020 - 16m       (FORECAST)

So that puts them up to 112.8m, even if they don't quite meet the forecast this year they'll still be on track for 120m+ over the next few years.

The PS3 didn't stop production/shipments until May 2017, 3 and a half years after the PS4 released, and that was a much less successful console.

FY 2020/2021 - 8m
FY 2021/2022 - 3.5m
FY 2022/2023 - 1.5m

Conservative estimate, would put PS4 at 125.8m lifetime.



LTD Sales Predictions: PS4 - 130m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 52m
2019 Sales : PS4 - 15m, Switch - 18.8m, XBO - 4.8m
2020 Sales: Switch - 22m (Peak Year)

Barkley said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

If the PS5 flops and people continue buying the PS4 instead, yes.

Otherwise, it's getting tough to imagine the PS4 still selling over 120M. It's already close to 2M down compared to same time last year (2M should be reached in 2 weeks), and the gap keeps growing faster. Even a $100 cheaper Superslim could only do so much anymore, and the longer it takes before it's getting released, the harder it will get to get to 120M and over.

For the record, I expect the PS4 to sell another 7M (without a Superslim) to 9M (with a superslim releasing this year), making it 12-14M for this year and 104-106M total sales. Next year, with the PS5 reveal, I expect the sales to come crashing down to about 6-7M, so 110M-113M, and an additional 4-5M after that, so 114M-118M total. Not far below the 120M, mind you, but not past it either.

"Next year, with the PS5 reveal, I expect the sales to come crashing down to about 6-7M" - The PS3 sold 8.2m in 2013, the PS4 was revealed February 2013... there's no way the PS4 crashes down to 6-7m and sells even worse than the ps3 did in this time frame.

Sony's forecast is 16m shipped this fiscal year. Which would mean 112.8m shipped by March 31st 2020?

For them to ship less than 120m would be insane.

FY 2013/2014 - 7.5m
FY 2014/2015 - 14.8m
FY 2015/2016 - 17.7m
FY 2016/2017 -  20m
FY 2017/2018 - 19m
FY 2018/2019 - 17.8m
FY 2019/2020 - 16m       (FORECAST)

So that puts them up to 112.8m, even if they don't quite meet the forecast this year they'll still be on track for 120m+ over the next few years.

The PS3 didn't stop production/shipments until May 2017, 3 and a half years after the PS4 released, and that was a much less successful console.

FY 2020/2021 - 8m
FY 2021/2022 - 3.5m
FY 2022/2023 - 1.5m

Conservative estimate, would put PS4 at 125.8m lifetime.

I know Sony's forecast. But it's already trailing last year by almost 2M. In other words, Sony would need to sell as many consoles as it did last year during it's second half, and I don't see that happening at all. It's at 140k weekly now while the lowest it got last year was 200k, with September and October being 300k weekly and 1.6M on BF. Even with a $100 pricecut/cheaper superslim, even with Concrete Genie and Death Stranding, I don't see that happening. The baseline just dropped too low already. Hence why I said 14M at best this year.

Also, the forecast is for the FY, so April through March. But even then, in just one quarter, the PS4's sales dropped by over 1M already. And I'm certain they gonna revise the numbers downwards after the holiday season.

As for the PS3, keep in mind that the PS3 had a slow buildup and peaked only in 2011. It also had less market coverage at the time than the PS4 has right now. PS3 also didn't drop nearly as hard in sales in 2012, the year before it's launch, as it's doing this year. In fact, 2012 was just a 2M drop - just like what we had last year for the PS4. It then dropped by a third in the following year - which is what the PS4 will do this year if there's no $100 pricecut or a Superslim at $199 to catch up the sales somewhat.



Around the Network

NS a little down, but still dominating totally unopposed, as PS4, still strong, is following the natural course of an ending gen leader console, and there never were much direct competition with NS. PS4 needs a price cut this Autumn simply due to its age, and having to stay healthy enough until PS5 launch.
NS OTOH is marching unstoppable towards its domination years, this will be the first of at least two, most probably three, and playing well its cards, maybe even four years.
This will also bring us many 3rd party multiplat games, developed on NS first and then scaled up for other platforms, with very frugal minimum system requirements, allowing the widest PC gaming audiens and keeping dev costs very reasonable, many devs and publishers will thrive thanks to this for the next years.



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")

A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.

TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW!

        

A lot of Switches this week again.

As for PS4 lifetime sales. It's definately looking like PS4 wont hit it's forecast. Even if they release a Superslim and cut prices even more they have lost a huge chunk of their pace from last year already and I cant see them make that up.

Sony announced it had shipped 98.6M units in late April so we should at the very least close in on 100M if not already even though I think they would have made some sort of PR if they did ship 100M units.

130M might be achievable, but as a floor? that's bold. Another 32M consoles shipped is still a lot of consoles.. my guess would be somewhere in the 120-130M range



siebensus4 said:
I think it's already safe to say that the XBox All Digital Edition had no sustained impact. I wonder how this influences Microsoft's next gen plans.

I think the all digital Xbone came way too late, and was priced too high.  If they sell it at $99 with 3 months of Gamepass this holiday season, it might do something.  That would also seem to be consistent with their push to increase services revenue, without care for hardware sales.  They'd get more people into the family with the low upfront cost, then hope to extract $100+ per year from them with services.  

The same thing might be even more effective in 2020, with the launch of Halo: Infinite.  

In any case, I'm curious to see what everyone does over the next few years as some companies focus on traditional business models, while others move in a different direction.  I suspect that we'll see a lot of different ideas thrown at the wall.  It may be a while before we know which ones stick.  



Are we still in some kind of bizarro world where people expect the PS4 to hit 100M-110M and just suddenly stop selling?



Train wreck said:
Are we still in some kind of bizarro world where people expect the PS4 to hit 100M-110M and just suddenly stop selling?

Yes, the ECG (Epic Cliff Gang) is always looking for ways to see consoles plunging faster than more earth to earth estimates.



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909