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Japan Sales Week 28, Jul 08 - 14 2019, Famitsu

Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Sales Week 28, Jul 08 - 14 2019, Famitsu

Amnesia said:
Chrkeller said:

In other threads people are predicting a whole new "Switch 2" in 2021.  Based on sales, I don't see it.

Everyone believes that he wants. Switch Pro or Plus or whatever is coming soon with only sperficial improvement, not the one of August, but I believe that soon (first half 2020) we get a 1080p screen with some unlocking of the Tegra X1, but no way this thing can run PS5/scarlet games like ReviewTechUSA alaways repeat.

And yes, in 2022 we get a new 9th gen console which will have a different name.

Thing is, it doesn't have to. As long as PS4/XBO will get supported with ports, there's no reason why they don't make a Switch version out of those, too. Sports games will get ports for a long time anyway - just look at the PS2.

Hence why I highly doubt there will be a Switch successor in 2022 already. There's simply no reason to kill off the Switch by that point already unless Sony or Microsoft (or somebody else, like Sega) brings out a new handheld console, which would force Nintendo to react to that (like they did with the DS against the PSP and the 3DS against the Vita).



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Bofferbrauer2 said:
Amnesia said:

Everyone believes that he wants. Switch Pro or Plus or whatever is coming soon with only sperficial improvement, not the one of August, but I believe that soon (first half 2020) we get a 1080p screen with some unlocking of the Tegra X1, but no way this thing can run PS5/scarlet games like ReviewTechUSA alaways repeat.

And yes, in 2022 we get a new 9th gen console which will have a different name.

Thing is, it doesn't have to. As long as PS4/XBO will get supported with ports, there's no reason why they don't make a Switch version out of those, too.

It doesn't even need that; it could live on just fine on indies, exclusives like Octopath and Astral Chain, ports of older games, and first party. AAA blockbusters have never been the system's selling point so losing what few it has won't matter.



curl-6 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Thing is, it doesn't have to. As long as PS4/XBO will get supported with ports, there's no reason why they don't make a Switch version out of those, too.

It doesn't even need that; it could live on just fine on indies, exclusives like Octopath and Astral Chain, ports of older games, and first party. AAA blockbusters have never been the system's selling point so losing what few it has won't matter.

Of course. But having these too is always a good bonus. It helps if people don't have to buy another system for some games they love, but like you said, they're hardly a selling point.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
curl-6 said:

It doesn't even need that; it could live on just fine on indies, exclusives like Octopath and Astral Chain, ports of older games, and first party. AAA blockbusters have never been the system's selling point so losing what few it has won't matter.

Of course. But having these too is always a good bonus. It helps if people don't have to buy another system for some games they love, but like you said, they're hardly a selling point.

Oh yeah, don't get me wrong, as a Switch owner it's nice to be able to play stuff like Doom, Wolfenstein II, and soon Witcher 3 on my system, it's just I doubt sales would be affected if games like that stopped.



curl-6 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Of course. But having these too is always a good bonus. It helps if people don't have to buy another system for some games they love, but like you said, they're hardly a selling point.

Oh yeah, don't get me wrong, as a Switch owner it's nice to be able to play stuff like Doom, Wolfenstein II, and soon Witcher 3 on my system, it's just I doubt sales would be affected if games like that stopped.

I think they have an effect even if they aren't massive system sellers.  I think they help most with perceived value and keeping the console relevant in people's minds when Nintendo themselves can't provide a release a month.  This first half of 2019 I think shows that.  The only big new game from Nintendo was Yoshi until Mario Maker came out at the very end.  Yet, it has been up YoY by a considerable margin.  Some of that is no doubt Smash, but I think it's no coincidence that last year a similar situation resulted in a pronounced drop off while this year it sustained momentum nicely.  Mortal Kombat reportedly saw strong sales and multiple other ports, remasters, and new releases filled out the schedule.  These didn't lead to sales spikes, but they kept Switch relevant in the general consumer base's minds.  

Basically, the problem PS5 and Scarlet will bring is not taking away massive system sellers, but rather the loss of those games will result in Switch being left out of the headlines for prolonged periods.  PS5 and Scarlet will be the new hot thing and that will pull spotlight from the Switch.  This is why I feel a Pro model would indeed be wise.  It can encourage more ports, but more importantly it gets the Switch back to feeling more new fresh.



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Nuvendil said:
curl-6 said:

Oh yeah, don't get me wrong, as a Switch owner it's nice to be able to play stuff like Doom, Wolfenstein II, and soon Witcher 3 on my system, it's just I doubt sales would be affected if games like that stopped.

I think they have an effect even if they aren't massive system sellers.  I think they help most with perceived value and keeping the console relevant in people's minds when Nintendo themselves can't provide a release a month.  This first half of 2019 I think shows that.  The only big new game from Nintendo was Yoshi until Mario Maker came out at the very end.  Yet, it has been up YoY by a considerable margin.  Some of that is no doubt Smash, but I think it's no coincidence that last year a similar situation resulted in a pronounced drop off while this year it sustained momentum nicely.  Mortal Kombat reportedly saw strong sales and multiple other ports, remasters, and new releases filled out the schedule.  These didn't lead to sales spikes, but they kept Switch relevant in the general consumer base's minds.  

Basically, the problem PS5 and Scarlet will bring is not taking away massive system sellers, but rather the loss of those games will result in Switch being left out of the headlines for prolonged periods.  PS5 and Scarlet will be the new hot thing and that will pull spotlight from the Switch.  This is why I feel a Pro model would indeed be wise.  It can encourage more ports, but more importantly it gets the Switch back to feeling more new fresh.

Those games that fill out the schedule don't have to be big current AAA blockbusters though, they can just as easily be stuff like Octopath or Cuphead. 



curl-6 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Of course. But having these too is always a good bonus. It helps if people don't have to buy another system for some games they love, but like you said, they're hardly a selling point.

Oh yeah, don't get me wrong, as a Switch owner it's nice to be able to play stuff like Doom, Wolfenstein II, and soon Witcher 3 on my system, it's just I doubt sales would be affected if games like that stopped.

Might be a slight drop, but nothing dramatic in most cases.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
curl-6 said:

Oh yeah, don't get me wrong, as a Switch owner it's nice to be able to play stuff like Doom, Wolfenstein II, and soon Witcher 3 on my system, it's just I doubt sales would be affected if games like that stopped.

Might be a slight drop, but nothing dramatic in most cases.

I don't envision a drop either, more a steady decline.  Which is fine because the Switch will be well on its way to a very healthy finish when the squeeze is truly felt imo.



Megiddo said:
Nuvendil said:

Listing off PS4 titles that never came to Switch is irrelevant to a discussion of Switch vs PS4 sales of third party games.  Most games that release on both are within the same neighborhood in sales.  But that assumes honest analysis is your goal, rather than confirmation bias being your guiding principle.

Irrelevant? You think third party software publishers see them as irrelevant? If you do then honestly, let me just laugh directly at you. Because you'd be so naive that I couldn't help myself from laughing. The success of third party titles on PS4, whether or not they are available on the Switch, is why it will continue to get more third party titles. The PS4 is an ecosystem where there the audience has many different tastes and are not completely focused on one sole publisher. That is its huge advantage when it comes to third party software. When or if the Switch reaches that point, when large-scale projects such as Yokai Watch aren't abject sales failures, then there would at least a starting point to discuss whether or not the Switch will overtake the PS4 in terms of third party coverage. 

That's the kind of circular logic that has made third party publishers lose ground in the Japanese market over the years.

1. Put games on PS.
2. Games sell better on PS than Nintendo because the games aren't even available on Nintendo.
3. Conclude to stay PS-exclusive based on the above.
4. Rinse and repeat.

The cherry on top is that Switch is supposed to prove itself when it's not even being given a chance to do so in most cases.

But that mindset is what makes the Japanese sales charts so much fun to follow. PS and Xbox get trounced and third parties tie their fates to those consoles, so Nintendo dominates Japan not just as a hardware manufacturer, but also as a software publisher.

Then again, the PS4 is approaching its end and supporting the PS5 is dangerous because the previous three PS consoles (PS3, PSV, PS4) all stumbled out of the gate. Quite a few third party publishers will be forced to reconsider their approach and do day and date launches of their games, so the circular logic can't be used forever.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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RolStoppable said:
Megiddo said:

Irrelevant? You think third party software publishers see them as irrelevant? If you do then honestly, let me just laugh directly at you. Because you'd be so naive that I couldn't help myself from laughing. The success of third party titles on PS4, whether or not they are available on the Switch, is why it will continue to get more third party titles. The PS4 is an ecosystem where there the audience has many different tastes and are not completely focused on one sole publisher. That is its huge advantage when it comes to third party software. When or if the Switch reaches that point, when large-scale projects such as Yokai Watch aren't abject sales failures, then there would at least a starting point to discuss whether or not the Switch will overtake the PS4 in terms of third party coverage. 

That's the kind of circular logic that has made third party publishers lose ground in the Japanese market over the years.

1. Put games on PS.
2. Games sell better on PS than Nintendo because the games aren't even available on Nintendo.
3. Conclude to stay PS-exclusive based on the above.
4. Rinse and repeat.

The cherry on top is that Switch is supposed to prove itself when it's not even being given a chance to do so in most cases.

But that mindset is what makes the Japanese sales charts so much fun to follow. PS and Xbox get trounced and third parties tie their fates to those consoles, so Nintendo dominates Japan not just as a hardware manufacturer, but also as a software publisher.

Then again, the PS4 is approaching its end and supporting the PS5 is dangerous because the previous three PS consoles (PS3, PSV, PS4) all stumbled out of the gate. Quite a few third party publishers will be forced to reconsider their approach and do day and date launches of their games, so the circular logic can't be used forever.

Have the other two points: Myopia generation and forget the handheld market.

1. The Myopia Generation

Only one or two generations are counted. Forget the other generations when Nintendo has the lead and has plenty of third parties support. And Third-party games sell well on Nintendo consoles. 

2. Forget the handheld market

The handheld market is dominated by Nintendo. Nintendo never loses in the realm of the handheld market. DS, 3DS have strong third-party support because of this. The switch is a hybrid system, i guess a big chunk of that support going to Switch.