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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Sales Week 28, Jul 08 - 14 2019, Famitsu

Bofferbrauer2 on 18 July 2019
curl-6 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Of course. But having these too is always a good bonus. It helps if people don't have to buy another system for some games they love, but like you said, they're hardly a selling point.

Oh yeah, don't get me wrong, as a Switch owner it's nice to be able to play stuff like Doom, Wolfenstein II, and soon Witcher 3 on my system, it's just I doubt sales would be affected if games like that stopped.

Might be a slight drop, but nothing dramatic in most cases.



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Nuvendil on 18 July 2019
Bofferbrauer2 said:
curl-6 said:

Oh yeah, don't get me wrong, as a Switch owner it's nice to be able to play stuff like Doom, Wolfenstein II, and soon Witcher 3 on my system, it's just I doubt sales would be affected if games like that stopped.

Might be a slight drop, but nothing dramatic in most cases.

I don't envision a drop either, more a steady decline.  Which is fine because the Switch will be well on its way to a very healthy finish when the squeeze is truly felt imo.



Agente42 on 18 July 2019
RolStoppable said:
Megiddo said:

Irrelevant? You think third party software publishers see them as irrelevant? If you do then honestly, let me just laugh directly at you. Because you'd be so naive that I couldn't help myself from laughing. The success of third party titles on PS4, whether or not they are available on the Switch, is why it will continue to get more third party titles. The PS4 is an ecosystem where there the audience has many different tastes and are not completely focused on one sole publisher. That is its huge advantage when it comes to third party software. When or if the Switch reaches that point, when large-scale projects such as Yokai Watch aren't abject sales failures, then there would at least a starting point to discuss whether or not the Switch will overtake the PS4 in terms of third party coverage. 

That's the kind of circular logic that has made third party publishers lose ground in the Japanese market over the years.

1. Put games on PS.
2. Games sell better on PS than Nintendo because the games aren't even available on Nintendo.
3. Conclude to stay PS-exclusive based on the above.
4. Rinse and repeat.

The cherry on top is that Switch is supposed to prove itself when it's not even being given a chance to do so in most cases.

But that mindset is what makes the Japanese sales charts so much fun to follow. PS and Xbox get trounced and third parties tie their fates to those consoles, so Nintendo dominates Japan not just as a hardware manufacturer, but also as a software publisher.

Then again, the PS4 is approaching its end and supporting the PS5 is dangerous because the previous three PS consoles (PS3, PSV, PS4) all stumbled out of the gate. Quite a few third party publishers will be forced to reconsider their approach and do day and date launches of their games, so the circular logic can't be used forever.

Have the other two points: Myopia generation and forget the handheld market.

1. The Myopia Generation

Only one or two generations are counted. Forget the other generations when Nintendo has the lead and has plenty of third parties support. And Third-party games sell well on Nintendo consoles. 

2. Forget the handheld market

The handheld market is dominated by Nintendo. Nintendo never loses in the realm of the handheld market. DS, 3DS have strong third-party support because of this. The switch is a hybrid system, i guess a big chunk of that support going to Switch. 



curl-6 on 18 July 2019

Very interested to see how Dragon Quest 11 S performs on Switch.

It's a very late port, but it's one of the most popular franchises in the Japan, and now on nation's platform of choice.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 19 July 2019

The_Liquid_Laser on 18 July 2019
Megiddo said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Nintendo has begun it's domination of Japan. Is there any doubt that at least 90% of Japanese games are coming to Switch over the next few years? It's going to be their sole dominant platform.

There is a huge amount of doubt until Japanese gamers show that they are willing to buy full price retail Switch games from publishers other than Nintendo.

20k for God Eater 3 is pathetic even for it being a late port. YW4 sales were miserable. Other than Minecraft which sells on pretty much everything there has yet to be any major standout third party title on the Switch, so why would third party publishers want to focus on the Switch if the audience isn't buying their games in even slightly impressive quantities?

You don't think Dragon Quest 11 S will sell well?  How could it not?



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
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Nuvendil on 19 July 2019
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Megiddo said:

There is a huge amount of doubt until Japanese gamers show that they are willing to buy full price retail Switch games from publishers other than Nintendo.

20k for God Eater 3 is pathetic even for it being a late port. YW4 sales were miserable. Other than Minecraft which sells on pretty much everything there has yet to be any major standout third party title on the Switch, so why would third party publishers want to focus on the Switch if the audience isn't buying their games in even slightly impressive quantities?

You don't think Dragon Quest 11 S will sell well?  How could it not?

I mean, I wouldn't be surprised at all if it underperformed to some degree.  Not because there's no audience for DQ on Nintendo platforms, the 3DS release did great.  It's just that t's more than two years late.  Should still do well, but any comparisons to the PS4 release will need to be done with the extenuating circumstances in mind.



The_Liquid_Laser on 19 July 2019
Nuvendil said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

You don't think Dragon Quest 11 S will sell well?  How could it not?

I mean, I wouldn't be surprised at all if it underperformed to some degree.  Not because there's no audience for DQ on Nintendo platforms, the 3DS release did great.  It's just that t's more than two years late.  Should still do well, but any comparisons to the PS4 release will need to be done with the extenuating circumstances in mind.

What would underperforming look like in terms of sales numbers?  Considering it has sold to both the PS4 and 3DS previously, what would be "on par" or "below par" or "above par"?



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox

The_Liquid_Laser on 19 July 2019

FYI, here is a list of the top 30 games this week from Famitsu.
https://www.perfectly-nintendo.com/japan-famitsu-sales-for-week-28-2019-july-8th-july-14th/

In the top 30, you get this distribution of games:

NSW - 20
PS4 - 9
3DS - 1

If you break them down by first and third party, then it looks like this:

NSW, 1st - 11
NSW, 3rd - 9
PS4, 1st - 2
PS4, 3rd - 7
3DS, 1st - 1

There are 9 Switch third party games in the top 30, while the PS4 only has 7.  That means that third party companies are better off releasing their games on the Switch right now.  Some might be Switch exclusives and some might get a release on both Switch and PS4.  Either way, these third party companies are benefiting from releasing on Switch right now.  I say this because the install base for PS4 and Switch are roughly the same in Japan and there are 11 Switch first party games on the list.  In spite of all of this, there are still more Switch third party titles on the list than PS4 third party titles.

Going forward, Switch install base is going to shoot far ahead of PS4 in Japan.  Why wouldn't Japanese companies want their games on the Switch?  Of course they would!  There should be no reason to doubt.  Over the next few years expect 90%+ of Japanese games to get a version on the Switch.  Switch is by far the dominant platform and third party games are already selling well.



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox

Barkley on 19 July 2019
The_Liquid_Laser said:

There are 9 Switch third party games in the top 30, while the PS4 only has 7.  That means that third party companies are better off releasing their games on the Switch right now.

No... that's not what it means. God Eater 3 just launched on Switch so is one of those 9 games in the top 30. Just as Yokai Watch 4 released recently.

If a bunch of third party games released on PS4 next month they'd have a high number of releases in the top 30, doesn't mean it is better than the Switch as a platform for third parties, it just means it's had new releases.

The better example would be sales of specific games that launched simultaneously on both platforms.

Attack on Titan 2 - PS4: 20.2k  NSW: 25.8k

Anyway as they're third parties and both platforms are performing well in terms of games sales, Japanese Developers are better off releasing their games on both platforms.



The_Liquid_Laser on 19 July 2019
Barkley said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

There are 9 Switch third party games in the top 30, while the PS4 only has 7.  That means that third party companies are better off releasing their games on the Switch right now.

No... that's not what it means. God Eater 3 just launched on Switch so is one of those 9 games in the top 30. Just as Yokai Watch 4 released recently.

If a bunch of third party games released on PS4 next month they'd have a high number of releases in the top 30, doesn't mean it is better than the Switch as a platform for third parties, it just means it's had new releases.

The better example would be sales of specific games that launched simultaneously on both platforms.

Attack on Titan 2 - PS4: 20.2k  NSW: 25.8k

Anyway as they're third parties and both platforms are performing well in terms of games sales, Japanese Developers are better off releasing their games on both platforms.

My arguement is that going forward most games are going to get a Switch version.  You are countering that by saying that Switch already is goetting a lot of releases.  Your arguement is actually proving my point, not contradicting it.



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox