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NPD: PS4 2016 vs Switch 2019

Forums - Sales Discussion - NPD: PS4 2016 vs Switch 2019

How much more will Switch sell compared to PS4?

Switch will not outsell PS4 1 4.17%
 
500k-1 million 2 8.33%
 
1 million-1.5 million 4 16.67%
 
1.5 million-2 million 4 16.67%
 
2 million-2.5 million 3 12.50%
 
2.5 million-3 million 5 20.83%
 
Over 3 million 5 20.83%
 
Total:24
psychicscubadiver said:
PAOerfulone said:

Third Party Support has never been a selling point for Nintendo. At least nowhere near as much as it is for Sony and Microsoft. When the casual audience look for games/reasons to buy a PlayStation or Xbox, they look primarily for Call of Duty, FIFA, Grand Theft Auto, and NBA 2K, games that have become synonymous with the PlayStation and Xbox brands, more than even most of Sony and Microsoft's own first party franchises. But when they look for games/reasons to buy a Nintendo system, they look for Mario, Pokemon, Smash Bros., and Zelda. Nintendo games. It's not going to hurt the Switch in any significant way, if at all, because nobody, at this or any point, expected the Switch to have that level of 3rd party support.

Think of it this way. Imagine a scenario where all of the 3rd party developers, major and indie, Western and Japanese, from EA and Activision to Square Enix and Capcom. All of them... just vanished of the face of the earth. If Thanos snapped his fingers and made all the 3rd party developers disappear and it's just Sony, Microsoft, Nintendo, and all their subsidiaries and studios as the only game developers on the planet... Sony and Microsoft... are in a lot of trouble. They are in DEEP shit. They're in the middle of the ocean without a life vest and it's sink or swim. Microsoft much more than Sony. Sony could make it. It's not going to easy by any means, but they could make it. Meanwhile, Microsoft would pretty much be fucked... And they know it, that's why they went out and bought all those studios to add to their first party lineup. That's why the rumor has been out that Sony is on a shopping spree for developers to boost their own 1st party lineup.

Out of the Big Three, Nintendo easily is the most fit to survive in a video game industry with no 3rd party developers. And it's not because they have the most 1st party franchises, I actually think Sony may have them beat when it comes to quantity. It's because they have consistently put themselves first and given their own franchises top priority over anything else. And that's a double-edged sword, don't get me wrong. The downside to doing that is that they have, far too many times, alienated 3rd party developers or outright burned bridges (like they did with Square Enix in the late 90s). But the upside to that is they don't become nearly as reliant on 3rd party support as Sony and Microsoft, because they bank on themselves and a "do it ourselves" mentality. As a result, they have much more direct control over their own destiny. (It also helps when the top two best selling and most popular video game franchises of all time, Mario and Pokemon, are your own IPs.) But that's the benefit of banking on yourself; Sometimes you'll fall flat on your face, but when it pays off, it REALLY pays off.

As for porting PS5/Scarlett games to Switch. That depends on the type of game, if it's something that is scaled so that it can be on as many platforms as possible, then yes, it should still happen. Anything that's taking full advantage of the PS5 and Scarlett's hardware, obviously not. Will that hurt the Switch? No, I don't think so.

The main thing when it comes to the Switch's 3rd party support in later years is that it won't get it like Sony and Microsoft are used to, but it'll get it in ways that are specifically catered to take advantage of the Switch. (i.e. Mario & Rabbids, Octopath Traveler, Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3, Bayonetta 3, SMT V.) What you need to remember about the Switch is that, moving forward (or at least in the forseeable future), it is going to be the ONLY dedicated video game system that is portable. So all of the handheld, portable, 3rd party support and games that you would see on the DS/PSP, 3DS/Vita... Especially from Japan, is all going to the Switch. Because the appeal of developing for handhelds has always been that it was significantly more affordable than consoles and the portability factor. Two core concepts the Switch will retain and should be emphasized more and more as the new gen consoles arrive and the Switch's price drops to handheld levels. 

The Switch doesn't need to have the same 3rd party support as Sony and Microsoft, although it would definitely be nice to have... it needs the right 3rd party support.

And a big thing to consider in 3rd party support these days is the Indies.

Indies are on the rise as sources of quality gameplay outside of the main studios, and they sell like gangbusters on the Switch. They are seldom so graphically intense that running on Nintendo hardware is difficult. Add to that, that Nintendo are supposedly actively working with Indie developers and encouraging them to come to Switch. Things like Cadence of Hyrule would certainly suggest that that's the case. Even if all of the major studios abandon Switch in favor of the new consoles, I still feel that there will be a wealth of Indie developers putting their games on Switch and reaping the benefits when Switch owners look for titles in between big Nintendo releases. 

That said, I wish Nintendo curated the eShop a bit better. Great games could be buried in some of the garbage that's on there now.

Or at least come up with better sorting options in the e-Shop. I really have to look into the e-Shop every week, otherwise some new good games might get drowned out by a flood of new titles. At least I can wishlist the interesting ones for later...



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curl-6 said:
LudicrousSpeed said:
Most impressive part is outside of Yoshi, there were no really huge releases either. Imagine what it could do with adequate third party support.

Or adequate first party support.

Every company has stretches without releases. Overall Nintendo has done great with Switch.



LudicrousSpeed said:
curl-6 said:

Or adequate first party support.

Every company has stretches without releases. Overall Nintendo has done great with Switch.

They do have an unfortunate habit of leaving the first half of the year devoid of system sellers, though they seem to have learned as next year Animal Crossing is hitting in March.



curl-6 said:
LudicrousSpeed said:

Every company has stretches without releases. Overall Nintendo has done great with Switch.

They do have an unfortunate habit of leaving the first half of the year devoid of system sellers, though they seem to have learned as next year Animal Crossing is hitting in March.

What you call a habit is actually an exception. Between the four years 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, the only year that had no system seller in its first half is 2018. And no, I am not cheating with 2019 because I count Super Mario Maker 2 due to its June 28th release, because one game you have a habit of shoving out of the way (New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe) is a system seller. NSMBU Deluxe is #10 on Switch's LTD chart, but it's actually the ninth-best-selling Switch game in the USA because NPD has the illogical habit of counting Pokémon versions as entirely different games.

That doesn't mean that Nintendo can't do better in the first half of the year, but merely that your assertion is wrong.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

How is the February difference positive for Switch?



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Areaz32 said:

How is the February difference positive for Switch?

By getting the difference of both platform's January and February total. 



             

Nintendo Switch FC: SW-6340-7643-4233 aka Renji

Steam: Lee Roid

Areaz32 said:

How is the February difference positive for Switch?

Accumulative difference. Its lead in January was big enough to offset PS4's lead in February. 



Well done Poison, tagging!



People expecting Switch to not affect PS5 and Scarlett are going to be in for a shock once they release.  These consoles do, in fact, compete with each other.  Sony and Microsoft are going to launch expensive consoles against Nintendo's cheap and popular console.  How will they fare?  What does history tell us?


For 2006-2009, the Wii was selling at record levels.  At the same time the PS3, in particular, was suffering compared to earlier Sony consoles.  This was not a coincidence.  Wii was eating its lunch.  People bought the cheap and novel console over the expensive and powerful one.  

After 2009, we got a different story.  Wii sales dropped off quickly, while PS3 and XBox360 sales were picking up.  Again, this is not a coincidence.  These consoles are competing.  Sales of one goes down while the others go up.  They are clearly competing with one another. 

In the end, total sales for Sony/Microsoft for gen 7 were 87.4m (PS3) + 85.8m (XB360) = 173.2m.  Meanwhile, in generation 6 total sales were 157.7m (PS2) + 24.7m (XBox) = 182.4m.  There were about 9m people who switched to the Wii in generation 7, and had a Wii only.  That means the vast majority of Wii owners (101.6m) decided to get a second console.  For many households what happened was they bought a Wii first and then got a PS3 or XBox360 after the consoles dropped in price.  Lots of gamers get tired of a console after 3-6 years, and good games on the Wii dried up after a few years.  These Wii owners switched over to the PS3 or XB0x360.

That is the sort thing we should expect for PS5 and Scarlett.  Again we have expensive and powerful consoles competing against a cheap and novel one.  We should expect their sales to stall for the first few years.  Most people are just going to buy a Switch instead of a $500 console.  After that it kind of depends on how popular the Switch's successor is.  People might transition from Switch to "Switch 2" or they might transition from Switch to PS5 and Scarlett. 

Either way, all of these consoles are, in fact, competing with one another.  Since Switch is such a popular (and cheap) console, expect it to take sales from PS5 and Scarlett.  Anyone who expects these consoles to sell well right from the start is in for a big surprise.



Shadow1980 said:
Ryng_Tolu said:
PS4 November 2016 numbers estimate should be around 1.2m. The 1.1m was the first leak which was confirmed to be off after one year.

Source?

Don't really have a leak but Zhuge said tthe 1.1m was fake.

Then, it was confirmed that PS4 was up YOY by 40% in November 2017, and we have 1.69m as leaked numbers. That's where i find my 1.2m estimate for Nov 2016