Quantcast
NPD: PS4 2016 vs Switch 2019

Forums - Sales Discussion - NPD: PS4 2016 vs Switch 2019

How much more will Switch sell compared to PS4?

Switch will not outsell PS4 4 11.11%
 
500k-1 million 2 5.56%
 
1 million-1.5 million 7 19.44%
 
1.5 million-2 million 6 16.67%
 
2 million-2.5 million 4 11.11%
 
2.5 million-3 million 5 13.89%
 
Over 3 million 8 22.22%
 
Total:36
gamingsoul said:

interesting opinion, you could be right, but what’s your take on third party support? So far we have seen some very good switch ports while others not so much, will it be posible to port ps5/xbox2 games to the switch? I think it’s very unlikely that third party developers will develope exclusive for the switch and with new hardware people will be expecting bigger more impressive games, don’t you think it could hurt the switch? in this industry hype sometimes drive sales alone, also could the switch keep selling so well with just nintendo and indie support?will developers prefer the higher user base of the switch over the new technology? The gaming industry is very interesting at this point.

Third Party Support has never been a selling point for Nintendo. At least nowhere near as much as it is for Sony and Microsoft. When the casual audience look for games/reasons to buy a PlayStation or Xbox, they look primarily for Call of Duty, FIFA, Grand Theft Auto, and NBA 2K, games that have become synonymous with the PlayStation and Xbox brands, more than even most of Sony and Microsoft's own first party franchises. But when they look for games/reasons to buy a Nintendo system, they look for Mario, Pokemon, Smash Bros., and Zelda. Nintendo games. It's not going to hurt the Switch in any significant way, if at all, because nobody, at this or any point, expected the Switch to have that level of 3rd party support.

Think of it this way. Imagine a scenario where all of the 3rd party developers, major and indie, Western and Japanese, from EA and Activision to Square Enix and Capcom. All of them... just vanished of the face of the earth. If Thanos snapped his fingers and made all the 3rd party developers disappear and it's just Sony, Microsoft, Nintendo, and all their subsidiaries and studios as the only game developers on the planet... Sony and Microsoft... are in a lot of trouble. They are in DEEP shit. They're in the middle of the ocean without a life vest and it's sink or swim. Microsoft much more than Sony. Sony could make it. It's not going to easy by any means, but they could make it. Meanwhile, Microsoft would pretty much be fucked... And they know it, that's why they went out and bought all those studios to add to their first party lineup. That's why the rumor has been out that Sony is on a shopping spree for developers to boost their own 1st party lineup.

Out of the Big Three, Nintendo easily is the most fit to survive in a video game industry with no 3rd party developers. And it's not because they have the most 1st party franchises, I actually think Sony may have them beat when it comes to quantity. It's because they have consistently put themselves first and given their own franchises top priority over anything else. And that's a double-edged sword, don't get me wrong. The downside to doing that is that they have, far too many times, alienated 3rd party developers or outright burned bridges (like they did with Square Enix in the late 90s). But the upside to that is they don't become nearly as reliant on 3rd party support as Sony and Microsoft, because they bank on themselves and a "do it ourselves" mentality. As a result, they have much more direct control over their own destiny. (It also helps when the top two best selling and most popular video game franchises of all time, Mario and Pokemon, are your own IPs.) But that's the benefit of banking on yourself; Sometimes you'll fall flat on your face, but when it pays off, it REALLY pays off.

As for porting PS5/Scarlett games to Switch. That depends on the type of game, if it's something that is scaled so that it can be on as many platforms as possible, then yes, it should still happen. Anything that's taking full advantage of the PS5 and Scarlett's hardware, obviously not. Will that hurt the Switch? No, I don't think so.

The main thing when it comes to the Switch's 3rd party support in later years is that it won't get it like Sony and Microsoft are used to, but it'll get it in ways that are specifically catered to take advantage of the Switch. (i.e. Mario & Rabbids, Octopath Traveler, Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3, Bayonetta 3, SMT V.) What you need to remember about the Switch is that, moving forward (or at least in the forseeable future), it is going to be the ONLY dedicated video game system that is portable. So all of the handheld, portable, 3rd party support and games that you would see on the DS/PSP, 3DS/Vita... Especially from Japan, is all going to the Switch. Because the appeal of developing for handhelds has always been that it was significantly more affordable than consoles and the portability factor. Two core concepts the Switch will retain and should be emphasized more and more as the new gen consoles arrive and the Switch's price drops to handheld levels. 

The Switch doesn't need to have the same 3rd party support as Sony and Microsoft, although it would definitely be nice to have... it needs the right 3rd party support.



Pancho A. Ovies

Nintendo Switch in Japan (Famitsu): 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238945&page=2

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=239387

Around the Network

2016 is PS4's 4th year.



BraLoD said:
2016 is PS4's 4th year.

It's the PS4's 3rd full year. Technically 2019 is the Switch's 2nd full year... but whatever it's the best we can do. xD



Predictions (Made July 2019)

LTD: PS4 - 130m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 52m       2019 : PS4 - 15m, Switch - 18.8m, XBO - 4.8m        2020: Switch - 22m (Peak Year)


Barkley said:
BraLoD said:
2016 is PS4's 4th year.

It's the PS4's 3rd full year. Technically 2019 is the Switch's 2nd full year... but whatever it's the best we can do. xD

Yes, if you consider 2016 the 3rd year for PS4 then 2019 is the 2nd year for Switch.



BraLoD said:
Barkley said:

It's the PS4's 3rd full year. Technically 2019 is the Switch's 2nd full year... but whatever it's the best we can do. xD

Yes, if you consider 2016 the 3rd year for PS4 then 2019 is the 2nd year for Switch.

Difference is PS4 only had 1 and a half months in 2013, while Switch had 10 full months in 2017.

This way makes the most sense because it's the closest you can get.

2016 started with PS4's 777th day on the market, 2019 began with Switch's 669th day on the market. A gap of 158 days.

2015 v 2019 would be a gap of 257 days.



Predictions (Made July 2019)

LTD: PS4 - 130m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 52m       2019 : PS4 - 15m, Switch - 18.8m, XBO - 4.8m        2020: Switch - 22m (Peak Year)


Around the Network

Most impressive part is outside of Yoshi, there were no really huge releases either. Imagine what it could do with adequate third party support.



PAOerfulone said:
gamingsoul said:

Third Party Support has never been a selling point for Nintendo. At least nowhere near as much as it is for Sony and Microsoft. When the casual audience look for games/reasons to buy a PlayStation or Xbox, they look primarily for Call of Duty, FIFA, Grand Theft Auto, and NBA 2K, games that have become synonymous with the PlayStation and Xbox brands, more than even most of Sony and Microsoft's own first party franchises. But when they look for games/reasons to buy a Nintendo system, they look for Mario, Pokemon, Smash Bros., and Zelda. Nintendo games. It's not going to hurt the Switch in any significant way, if at all, because nobody, at this or any point, expected the Switch to have that level of 3rd party support.

Think of it this way. Imagine a scenario where all of the 3rd party developers, major and indie, Western and Japanese, from EA and Activision to Square Enix and Capcom. All of them... just vanished of the face of the earth. If Thanos snapped his fingers and made all the 3rd party developers disappear and it's just Sony, Microsoft, Nintendo, and all their subsidiaries and studios as the only game developers on the planet... Sony and Microsoft... are in a lot of trouble. They are in DEEP shit. They're in the middle of the ocean without a life vest and it's sink or swim. Microsoft much more than Sony. Sony could make it. It's not going to easy by any means, but they could make it. Meanwhile, Microsoft would pretty much be fucked... And they know it, that's why they went out and bought all those studios to add to their first party lineup. That's why the rumor has been out that Sony is on a shopping spree for developers to boost their own 1st party lineup.

Out of the Big Three, Nintendo easily is the most fit to survive in a video game industry with no 3rd party developers. And it's not because they have the most 1st party franchises, I actually think Sony may have them beat when it comes to quantity. It's because they have consistently put themselves first and given their own franchises top priority over anything else. And that's a double-edged sword, don't get me wrong. The downside to doing that is that they have, far too many times, alienated 3rd party developers or outright burned bridges (like they did with Square Enix in the late 90s). But the upside to that is they don't become nearly as reliant on 3rd party support as Sony and Microsoft, because they bank on themselves and a "do it ourselves" mentality. As a result, they have much more direct control over their own destiny. (It also helps when the top two best selling and most popular video game franchises of all time, Mario and Pokemon, are your own IPs.) But that's the benefit of banking on yourself; Sometimes you'll fall flat on your face, but when it pays off, it REALLY pays off.

As for porting PS5/Scarlett games to Switch. That depends on the type of game, if it's something that is scaled so that it can be on as many platforms as possible, then yes, it should still happen. Anything that's taking full advantage of the PS5 and Scarlett's hardware, obviously not. Will that hurt the Switch? No, I don't think so.

The main thing when it comes to the Switch's 3rd party support in later years is that it won't get it like Sony and Microsoft are used to, but it'll get it in ways that are specifically catered to take advantage of the Switch. (i.e. Mario & Rabbids, Octopath Traveler, Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3, Bayonetta 3, SMT V.) What you need to remember about the Switch is that, moving forward (or at least in the forseeable future), it is going to be the ONLY dedicated video game system that is portable. So all of the handheld, portable, 3rd party support and games that you would see on the DS/PSP, 3DS/Vita... Especially from Japan, is all going to the Switch. Because the appeal of developing for handhelds has always been that it was significantly more affordable than consoles and the portability factor. Two core concepts the Switch will retain and should be emphasized more and more as the new gen consoles arrive and the Switch's price drops to handheld levels. 

The Switch doesn't need to have the same 3rd party support as Sony and Microsoft, although it would definitely be nice to have... it needs the right 3rd party support.

And a big thing to consider in 3rd party support these days is the Indies.

Indies are on the rise as sources of quality gameplay outside of the main studios, and they sell like gangbusters on the Switch. They are seldom so graphically intense that running on Nintendo hardware is difficult. Add to that, that Nintendo are supposedly actively working with Indie developers and encouraging them to come to Switch. Things like Cadence of Hyrule would certainly suggest that that's the case. Even if all of the major studios abandon Switch in favor of the new consoles, I still feel that there will be a wealth of Indie developers putting their games on Switch and reaping the benefits when Switch owners look for titles in between big Nintendo releases. 

That said, I wish Nintendo curated the eShop a bit better. Great games could be buried in some of the garbage that's on there now.

Last edited by psychicscubadiver - on 06 July 2019

Barkley said:
BraLoD said:

Yes, if you consider 2016 the 3rd year for PS4 then 2019 is the 2nd year for Switch.

Difference is PS4 only had 1 and a half months in 2013, while Switch had 10 full months in 2017.

This way makes the most sense because it's the closest you can get.

2016 started with PS4's 777th day on the market, 2019 began with Switch's 669th day on the market. A gap of 158 days.

2015 v 2019 would be a gap of 257 days.

I'm not constesting which should be the comparison base years.

I'm saying 2016 was PS4's 4th year or PS4's 3rd full year.

Meanwhile 2019 is Switch's 3rd year or Switch's 2nd full year.

He can compare anything he feels like making a comparison.

But they are not the same 3rd year as the OP says. That's all.



gamingsoul said:
The switch is doing really well, if it keeps going like this for a few years it could beat the ps4 or atleast get very close, but something everyone is not mentioning is the arrival of the new generation, right now the ps4 and Xbox are on the way out and nintendo is getting all the attention, but as soon as the new consoles arrive I wonder if the switch could keep selling so well, a price drop and mini switch could do it but new hardware will probably leave nintendo without triple aaa third party support, plus new stuff creates more hype, it will be very interesting to see what happens.

The console market is not an absolutely zero-sum game, especially considering that Nintendo is offering a fundamentally different product than what Sony & MS offer. A Nielsen survey from back in Jan. 2015 showed nearly three-quarters of PS4 & XBO owners at the time also owned a Wii in the previous generation, and both it and another survey in March 2012 indicated that there had to be a non-trivial amount overlap between platform owners. Furthermore, sales data clearly shows that the arrival of a new system in one brand has absolutely zero effect on sales of a console from another brand (though when a system gets a next-gen replacement, that does tend to eat into its sales).

While PlayStation and Xbox do have a lot in common, with comparable power and 90% or more of their libraries being games released on both systems, the sale of one does not necessarily always entail the loss of a sale by the other. While the majority of people will be satisfied with having one system in a given generation, some people buy multiple systems. I have a PS4, XBO, and Switch. In fact, the only major console I missed out on in the past 25 years was the Saturn, which had been discontinued shortly before I got my first job.

If PS & Xbox isn't an absolute zero-sum game, then the idea that the PS5 and Scarlet will cannibalize Switch sales is without any sort of basis.



LudicrousSpeed said:
Most impressive part is outside of Yoshi, there were no really huge releases either. Imagine what it could do with adequate third party support.

Or adequate first party support.