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NPD: PS4 2016 vs Switch 2019

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How much more will Switch sell compared to PS4?

Switch will not outsell PS4 1 4.17%
 
500k-1 million 2 8.33%
 
1 million-1.5 million 4 16.67%
 
1.5 million-2 million 4 16.67%
 
2 million-2.5 million 3 12.50%
 
2.5 million-3 million 5 20.83%
 
Over 3 million 5 20.83%
 
Total:24

I believe that Playstation 4 sells around 38 to 40 million in North America, until its life cycle ends, around 2021 to 2022.
Playstation 4 to sell 4 million in North America by 2020
3 million in 2021 and 2 million in 2022 and some remnants in 2023.



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I'm guessing Switch wins this one. Pokemon should do the trick.




Looking more critically, the Nintendo Switch is expected to sell somewhere around 6 to 6.5 million this year in North America due to major year-end titles this year.
The Switch is expected to reach close to 20 million units by December 31.
Next year another 6 to 7 million, 2021 plus 5 million and the Switch should hit its 30-33 million before 2022 arrive in North America. Its life cycle is 40 million.

Awesome to see the switching selling so well so far and outselling the PS4 in the third year. Great thread btw, certainly will come back and check it each month!

Azantix said:
Huh, maybe Switch is on pace to beat PS4 lifetime? Maybe? I'm not sure, I'm not exactly the best at predicting stuff like this hehe

depends, PS4 likely has an advantage in Europe and will likely have a longer lifespan than the switch. But its possible the Switch's dominance in Japan and USA could make that up.



     

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Now this is interesting indeed.



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gamingsoul said:
The switch is doing really well, if it keeps going like this for a few years it could beat the ps4 or atleast get very close, but something everyone is not mentioning is the arrival of the new generation, right now the ps4 and Xbox are on the way out and nintendo is getting all the attention, but as soon as the new consoles arrive I wonder if the switch could keep selling so well, a price drop and mini switch could do it but new hardware will probably leave nintendo without triple aaa third party support, plus new stuff creates more hype, it will be very interesting to see what happens.

PS5 and Scarlet won't hurt the Switch. They address different niches in the market, rather than directly competing.

Plus it's looking likely the next gen consoles will be $500 USD; if a $300 PS4 at its peak didn't clash with a $300 Switch, a $500 PS5 won't clash with what will by then probably be a $250 or $200 Switch.



These sales are further proof that Nintendo doesn't need to price cut the Switch. PS4 was in a similar situation last year, where the sales were quite good so Sony decided to not price cut the PS4 and let it ride out its sales.

Without a price cut though, its sales in other countries may suffer.



Fun thread, will definitely be interesting to watch how things go.



gamingsoul said:
The switch is doing really well, if it keeps going like this for a few years it could beat the ps4 or atleast get very close, but something everyone is not mentioning is the arrival of the new generation, right now the ps4 and Xbox are on the way out and nintendo is getting all the attention, but as soon as the new consoles arrive I wonder if the switch could keep selling so well, a price drop and mini switch could do it but new hardware will probably leave nintendo without triple aaa third party support, plus new stuff creates more hype, it will be very interesting to see what happens.

Sony & Microsoft are going to be selling to very different groups of people and samples of the overall gaming audience than Nintendo. In the beginning, the people who buy a system, any system, at launch or within the first year are the diehard, dedicated, loyal fans of the brand - the fanboys and fangirls, basically. In this case the PlayStation and Xbox diehards. And by late 2020 or 2021, those people will either already have a Switch or aren't even going to bother or consider it. It usually isn't until the 3rd or 4th year of a console's life cycle, when it has built a strong enough library of games and had a price cut/revision or two, when they really start to target the casual gaming audience that's a lot more flexible and open then their dedicated fanbases - which is where Nintendo is heading now.

By the time the PS5 and Scarlett come out, the Switch will have already been on the market for over 3 1/2 years... built up a strong library of games... and had a price cut/revision or two. I expect the Switch to be around $200-250 by that point, while the PS5 and Scarlett launch somewhere between $400-500. That's a huge gap in prices, around 2:1. The kind of consumer or gamer who jumps out and buys a system at $400-500 is not the same kind of consumer or game who waits to buy it at $200-250. 

Long story short, PS5 and Scarlett aren't going to effect the Switch, nor is the Switch going to effect PS5 and Scarlett, the only real competition and tug of war we're going to see when PS5 and Scarlett come out is going to be the one they have with each other. Meanwhile, the Switch will continue to sell and perform as it has up to that point. And when the PS5 and Scarlett eventually reach the point where it will start to target the mass, casual audience, the Switch will already be on its way out and close to being replaced, just like the PS4 and Xbox One are now. It'll pretty much be a turning of the tables and their roles will be reversed.



Pancho A. Ovies

Nintendo Switch in Japan (Famitsu): 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238945&page=2

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=239387

PAOerfulone said:
gamingsoul said:
The switch is doing really well, if it keeps going like this for a few years it could beat the ps4 or atleast get very close, but something everyone is not mentioning is the arrival of the new generation, right now the ps4 and Xbox are on the way out and nintendo is getting all the attention, but as soon as the new consoles arrive I wonder if the switch could keep selling so well, a price drop and mini switch could do it but new hardware will probably leave nintendo without triple aaa third party support, plus new stuff creates more hype, it will be very interesting to see what happens.

Sony & Microsoft are going to be selling to very different groups of people and samples of the overall gaming audience than Nintendo. In the beginning, the people who buy a system, any system, at launch or within the first year are the diehard, dedicated, loyal fans of the brand - the fanboys and fangirls, basically. In this case the PlayStation and Xbox diehards. And by late 2020 or 2021, those people will either already have a Switch or aren't even going to bother or consider it. It usually isn't until the 3rd or 4th year of a console's life cycle, when it has built a strong enough library of games and had a price cut/revision or two, when they really start to target the casual gaming audience that's a lot more flexible and open then their dedicated fanbases - which is where Nintendo is heading now.

By the time the PS5 and Scarlett come out, the Switch will have already been on the market for over 3 1/2 years... built up a strong library of games... and had a price cut/revision or two. I expect the Switch to be around $200-250 by that point, while the PS5 and Scarlett launch somewhere between $400-500. That's a huge gap in prices, around 2:1. The kind of consumer or gamer who jumps out and buys a system at $400-500 is not the same kind of consumer or game who waits to buy it at $200-250. 

Long story short, PS5 and Scarlett aren't going to effect the Switch, nor is the Switch going to effect PS5 and Scarlett, the only real competition and tug of war we're going to see when PS5 and Scarlett come out is going to be the one they have with each other. Meanwhile, the Switch will continue to sell and perform as it has up to that point. And when the PS5 and Scarlett eventually reach the point where it will start to target the mass, casual audience, the Switch will already be on its way out and close to being replaced, just like the PS4 and Xbox One are now. It'll pretty much be a turning of the tables and their roles will be reversed.

interesting opinion, you could be right, but what’s your take on third party support? So far we have seen some very good switch ports while others not so much, will it be posible to port ps5/xbox2 games to the switch? I think it’s very unlikely that third party developers will develope exclusive for the switch and with new hardware people will be expecting bigger more impressive games, don’t you think it could hurt the switch? in this industry hype sometimes drive sales alone, also could the switch keep selling so well with just nintendo and indie support?will developers prefer the higher user base of the switch over the new technology? The gaming industry is very interesting at this point.