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Forums - Sales Discussion - NPD: PS4 2016 vs Switch 2019

 

How much more will Switch sell compared to PS4?

Switch will not outsell PS4 7 15.56%
 
500k-1 million 2 4.44%
 
1 million-1.5 million 12 26.67%
 
1.5 million-2 million 6 13.33%
 
2 million-2.5 million 5 11.11%
 
2.5 million-3 million 5 11.11%
 
Over 3 million 8 17.78%
 
Total:45

These sales are further proof that Nintendo doesn't need to price cut the Switch. PS4 was in a similar situation last year, where the sales were quite good so Sony decided to not price cut the PS4 and let it ride out its sales.

Without a price cut though, its sales in other countries may suffer.



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Fun thread, will definitely be interesting to watch how things go.



gamingsoul said:
The switch is doing really well, if it keeps going like this for a few years it could beat the ps4 or atleast get very close, but something everyone is not mentioning is the arrival of the new generation, right now the ps4 and Xbox are on the way out and nintendo is getting all the attention, but as soon as the new consoles arrive I wonder if the switch could keep selling so well, a price drop and mini switch could do it but new hardware will probably leave nintendo without triple aaa third party support, plus new stuff creates more hype, it will be very interesting to see what happens.

Sony & Microsoft are going to be selling to very different groups of people and samples of the overall gaming audience than Nintendo. In the beginning, the people who buy a system, any system, at launch or within the first year are the diehard, dedicated, loyal fans of the brand - the fanboys and fangirls, basically. In this case the PlayStation and Xbox diehards. And by late 2020 or 2021, those people will either already have a Switch or aren't even going to bother or consider it. It usually isn't until the 3rd or 4th year of a console's life cycle, when it has built a strong enough library of games and had a price cut/revision or two, when they really start to target the casual gaming audience that's a lot more flexible and open then their dedicated fanbases - which is where Nintendo is heading now.

By the time the PS5 and Scarlett come out, the Switch will have already been on the market for over 3 1/2 years... built up a strong library of games... and had a price cut/revision or two. I expect the Switch to be around $200-250 by that point, while the PS5 and Scarlett launch somewhere between $400-500. That's a huge gap in prices, around 2:1. The kind of consumer or gamer who jumps out and buys a system at $400-500 is not the same kind of consumer or game who waits to buy it at $200-250. 

Long story short, PS5 and Scarlett aren't going to effect the Switch, nor is the Switch going to effect PS5 and Scarlett, the only real competition and tug of war we're going to see when PS5 and Scarlett come out is going to be the one they have with each other. Meanwhile, the Switch will continue to sell and perform as it has up to that point. And when the PS5 and Scarlett eventually reach the point where it will start to target the mass, casual audience, the Switch will already be on its way out and close to being replaced, just like the PS4 and Xbox One are now. It'll pretty much be a turning of the tables and their roles will be reversed.



PAOerfulone said:
gamingsoul said:
The switch is doing really well, if it keeps going like this for a few years it could beat the ps4 or atleast get very close, but something everyone is not mentioning is the arrival of the new generation, right now the ps4 and Xbox are on the way out and nintendo is getting all the attention, but as soon as the new consoles arrive I wonder if the switch could keep selling so well, a price drop and mini switch could do it but new hardware will probably leave nintendo without triple aaa third party support, plus new stuff creates more hype, it will be very interesting to see what happens.

Sony & Microsoft are going to be selling to very different groups of people and samples of the overall gaming audience than Nintendo. In the beginning, the people who buy a system, any system, at launch or within the first year are the diehard, dedicated, loyal fans of the brand - the fanboys and fangirls, basically. In this case the PlayStation and Xbox diehards. And by late 2020 or 2021, those people will either already have a Switch or aren't even going to bother or consider it. It usually isn't until the 3rd or 4th year of a console's life cycle, when it has built a strong enough library of games and had a price cut/revision or two, when they really start to target the casual gaming audience that's a lot more flexible and open then their dedicated fanbases - which is where Nintendo is heading now.

By the time the PS5 and Scarlett come out, the Switch will have already been on the market for over 3 1/2 years... built up a strong library of games... and had a price cut/revision or two. I expect the Switch to be around $200-250 by that point, while the PS5 and Scarlett launch somewhere between $400-500. That's a huge gap in prices, around 2:1. The kind of consumer or gamer who jumps out and buys a system at $400-500 is not the same kind of consumer or game who waits to buy it at $200-250. 

Long story short, PS5 and Scarlett aren't going to effect the Switch, nor is the Switch going to effect PS5 and Scarlett, the only real competition and tug of war we're going to see when PS5 and Scarlett come out is going to be the one they have with each other. Meanwhile, the Switch will continue to sell and perform as it has up to that point. And when the PS5 and Scarlett eventually reach the point where it will start to target the mass, casual audience, the Switch will already be on its way out and close to being replaced, just like the PS4 and Xbox One are now. It'll pretty much be a turning of the tables and their roles will be reversed.

interesting opinion, you could be right, but what’s your take on third party support? So far we have seen some very good switch ports while others not so much, will it be posible to port ps5/xbox2 games to the switch? I think it’s very unlikely that third party developers will develope exclusive for the switch and with new hardware people will be expecting bigger more impressive games, don’t you think it could hurt the switch? in this industry hype sometimes drive sales alone, also could the switch keep selling so well with just nintendo and indie support?will developers prefer the higher user base of the switch over the new technology? The gaming industry is very interesting at this point.



gamingsoul said:

interesting opinion, you could be right, but what’s your take on third party support? So far we have seen some very good switch ports while others not so much, will it be posible to port ps5/xbox2 games to the switch? I think it’s very unlikely that third party developers will develope exclusive for the switch and with new hardware people will be expecting bigger more impressive games, don’t you think it could hurt the switch? in this industry hype sometimes drive sales alone, also could the switch keep selling so well with just nintendo and indie support?will developers prefer the higher user base of the switch over the new technology? The gaming industry is very interesting at this point.

Third Party Support has never been a selling point for Nintendo. At least nowhere near as much as it is for Sony and Microsoft. When the casual audience look for games/reasons to buy a PlayStation or Xbox, they look primarily for Call of Duty, FIFA, Grand Theft Auto, and NBA 2K, games that have become synonymous with the PlayStation and Xbox brands, more than even most of Sony and Microsoft's own first party franchises. But when they look for games/reasons to buy a Nintendo system, they look for Mario, Pokemon, Smash Bros., and Zelda. Nintendo games. It's not going to hurt the Switch in any significant way, if at all, because nobody, at this or any point, expected the Switch to have that level of 3rd party support.

Think of it this way. Imagine a scenario where all of the 3rd party developers, major and indie, Western and Japanese, from EA and Activision to Square Enix and Capcom. All of them... just vanished of the face of the earth. If Thanos snapped his fingers and made all the 3rd party developers disappear and it's just Sony, Microsoft, Nintendo, and all their subsidiaries and studios as the only game developers on the planet... Sony and Microsoft... are in a lot of trouble. They are in DEEP shit. They're in the middle of the ocean without a life vest and it's sink or swim. Microsoft much more than Sony. Sony could make it. It's not going to easy by any means, but they could make it. Meanwhile, Microsoft would pretty much be fucked... And they know it, that's why they went out and bought all those studios to add to their first party lineup. That's why the rumor has been out that Sony is on a shopping spree for developers to boost their own 1st party lineup.

Out of the Big Three, Nintendo easily is the most fit to survive in a video game industry with no 3rd party developers. And it's not because they have the most 1st party franchises, I actually think Sony may have them beat when it comes to quantity. It's because they have consistently put themselves first and given their own franchises top priority over anything else. And that's a double-edged sword, don't get me wrong. The downside to doing that is that they have, far too many times, alienated 3rd party developers or outright burned bridges (like they did with Square Enix in the late 90s). But the upside to that is they don't become nearly as reliant on 3rd party support as Sony and Microsoft, because they bank on themselves and a "do it ourselves" mentality. As a result, they have much more direct control over their own destiny. (It also helps when the top two best selling and most popular video game franchises of all time, Mario and Pokemon, are your own IPs.) But that's the benefit of banking on yourself; Sometimes you'll fall flat on your face, but when it pays off, it REALLY pays off.

As for porting PS5/Scarlett games to Switch. That depends on the type of game, if it's something that is scaled so that it can be on as many platforms as possible, then yes, it should still happen. Anything that's taking full advantage of the PS5 and Scarlett's hardware, obviously not. Will that hurt the Switch? No, I don't think so.

The main thing when it comes to the Switch's 3rd party support in later years is that it won't get it like Sony and Microsoft are used to, but it'll get it in ways that are specifically catered to take advantage of the Switch. (i.e. Mario & Rabbids, Octopath Traveler, Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3, Bayonetta 3, SMT V.) What you need to remember about the Switch is that, moving forward (or at least in the forseeable future), it is going to be the ONLY dedicated video game system that is portable. So all of the handheld, portable, 3rd party support and games that you would see on the DS/PSP, 3DS/Vita... Especially from Japan, is all going to the Switch. Because the appeal of developing for handhelds has always been that it was significantly more affordable than consoles and the portability factor. Two core concepts the Switch will retain and should be emphasized more and more as the new gen consoles arrive and the Switch's price drops to handheld levels. 

The Switch doesn't need to have the same 3rd party support as Sony and Microsoft, although it would definitely be nice to have... it needs the right 3rd party support.



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BraLoD said:
2016 is PS4's 4th year.

It's the PS4's 3rd full year. Technically 2019 is the Switch's 2nd full year... but whatever it's the best we can do. xD



BraLoD said:
Barkley said:

It's the PS4's 3rd full year. Technically 2019 is the Switch's 2nd full year... but whatever it's the best we can do. xD

Yes, if you consider 2016 the 3rd year for PS4 then 2019 is the 2nd year for Switch.

Difference is PS4 only had 1 and a half months in 2013, while Switch had 10 full months in 2017.

This way makes the most sense because it's the closest you can get.

2016 started with PS4's 777th day on the market, 2019 began with Switch's 669th day on the market. A gap of 158 days.

2015 v 2019 would be a gap of 257 days.



Most impressive part is outside of Yoshi, there were no really huge releases either. Imagine what it could do with adequate third party support.



PAOerfulone said:
gamingsoul said:

Third Party Support has never been a selling point for Nintendo. At least nowhere near as much as it is for Sony and Microsoft. When the casual audience look for games/reasons to buy a PlayStation or Xbox, they look primarily for Call of Duty, FIFA, Grand Theft Auto, and NBA 2K, games that have become synonymous with the PlayStation and Xbox brands, more than even most of Sony and Microsoft's own first party franchises. But when they look for games/reasons to buy a Nintendo system, they look for Mario, Pokemon, Smash Bros., and Zelda. Nintendo games. It's not going to hurt the Switch in any significant way, if at all, because nobody, at this or any point, expected the Switch to have that level of 3rd party support.

Think of it this way. Imagine a scenario where all of the 3rd party developers, major and indie, Western and Japanese, from EA and Activision to Square Enix and Capcom. All of them... just vanished of the face of the earth. If Thanos snapped his fingers and made all the 3rd party developers disappear and it's just Sony, Microsoft, Nintendo, and all their subsidiaries and studios as the only game developers on the planet... Sony and Microsoft... are in a lot of trouble. They are in DEEP shit. They're in the middle of the ocean without a life vest and it's sink or swim. Microsoft much more than Sony. Sony could make it. It's not going to easy by any means, but they could make it. Meanwhile, Microsoft would pretty much be fucked... And they know it, that's why they went out and bought all those studios to add to their first party lineup. That's why the rumor has been out that Sony is on a shopping spree for developers to boost their own 1st party lineup.

Out of the Big Three, Nintendo easily is the most fit to survive in a video game industry with no 3rd party developers. And it's not because they have the most 1st party franchises, I actually think Sony may have them beat when it comes to quantity. It's because they have consistently put themselves first and given their own franchises top priority over anything else. And that's a double-edged sword, don't get me wrong. The downside to doing that is that they have, far too many times, alienated 3rd party developers or outright burned bridges (like they did with Square Enix in the late 90s). But the upside to that is they don't become nearly as reliant on 3rd party support as Sony and Microsoft, because they bank on themselves and a "do it ourselves" mentality. As a result, they have much more direct control over their own destiny. (It also helps when the top two best selling and most popular video game franchises of all time, Mario and Pokemon, are your own IPs.) But that's the benefit of banking on yourself; Sometimes you'll fall flat on your face, but when it pays off, it REALLY pays off.

As for porting PS5/Scarlett games to Switch. That depends on the type of game, if it's something that is scaled so that it can be on as many platforms as possible, then yes, it should still happen. Anything that's taking full advantage of the PS5 and Scarlett's hardware, obviously not. Will that hurt the Switch? No, I don't think so.

The main thing when it comes to the Switch's 3rd party support in later years is that it won't get it like Sony and Microsoft are used to, but it'll get it in ways that are specifically catered to take advantage of the Switch. (i.e. Mario & Rabbids, Octopath Traveler, Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3, Bayonetta 3, SMT V.) What you need to remember about the Switch is that, moving forward (or at least in the forseeable future), it is going to be the ONLY dedicated video game system that is portable. So all of the handheld, portable, 3rd party support and games that you would see on the DS/PSP, 3DS/Vita... Especially from Japan, is all going to the Switch. Because the appeal of developing for handhelds has always been that it was significantly more affordable than consoles and the portability factor. Two core concepts the Switch will retain and should be emphasized more and more as the new gen consoles arrive and the Switch's price drops to handheld levels. 

The Switch doesn't need to have the same 3rd party support as Sony and Microsoft, although it would definitely be nice to have... it needs the right 3rd party support.

And a big thing to consider in 3rd party support these days is the Indies.

Indies are on the rise as sources of quality gameplay outside of the main studios, and they sell like gangbusters on the Switch. They are seldom so graphically intense that running on Nintendo hardware is difficult. Add to that, that Nintendo are supposedly actively working with Indie developers and encouraging them to come to Switch. Things like Cadence of Hyrule would certainly suggest that that's the case. Even if all of the major studios abandon Switch in favor of the new consoles, I still feel that there will be a wealth of Indie developers putting their games on Switch and reaping the benefits when Switch owners look for titles in between big Nintendo releases. 

That said, I wish Nintendo curated the eShop a bit better. Great games could be buried in some of the garbage that's on there now.

Last edited by psychicscubadiver - on 06 July 2019

LudicrousSpeed said:
Most impressive part is outside of Yoshi, there were no really huge releases either. Imagine what it could do with adequate third party support.

Or adequate first party support.