Huh, maybe Switch is on pace to beat PS4 lifetime? Maybe? I'm not sure, I'm not exactly the best at predicting stuff like this hehe
In the U.S., probably. The PS4 could end up being down by as much as 30% YoY (though that's in large part due to the PS4 getting big short-term boosts from God of War, Spider-Man, and RDR2). The PS5 comes out next year, so we can probably assume yet another big drop-off, maybe 40% given what we saw last gen. Assume two more years of sales after that, with sales declining about 50% each year. That could gives us something like this (round up to the nearest 50k):
That's a total of 7.7M. The PS4 was at 28.34M at the end of 2018, so that gives it a life figure of about 36 million units. Not quite as good as the 37.5M I was projecting earlier this generation, but still good considering the XBO has done well enough to siphon off much of Sony's market share.
The Switch is hard to project right now. Nintendo consoles still tend to peak relatively early (except for the DS, Game Boy, and maybe the NES, they all peaked by their third full year) and Nintendo has been running on a shorter cycle than PS & Xbox. Still, I think the Switch stands a very good likelihood of beating the PS4. It's been up considerably from last year:
If its baseline continues to average at least 20% for the remainder of the year and it gets a solid boost from holiday deals plus another extra 500k or so from Pokemon, it could easily sell well north of 7M, which will put it ahead of the PS4, at least in the short term. The PS4 did after all maintain strong sales for the following two years, with nearly 10.8M total between 2017 & 2018. However, the Switch also hardware revisions to look forward to, but the effects of hardware revisions on sales have been inconsistent. Some caused sales to grown considerably over a long period of time (e.g., DS Lite, 360 S, PS3 Slim), others have had more modest short-term effects (e.g., PS4 Slim, XBO S, PS2 Slim, New 3DS). The effects of hardware revisions on the Switch's sales will figure heavily into what the system's lifetime sales will be. If they have a very modest effect, the Switch could end up selling about on par with the PS4. If at least one of them has a better, more long-term effect, the Switch could end up beating the PS4 by a good margin.
Other factors could push the Switch even higher potentially, such as a hardware revision exceeding expectations, or Nintendo deciding to run on a longer cycle by supporting the Switch longer and more strongly than they've done with the rest of their systems over the past 25 years, which could put the Switch way beyond the PS4 and perhaps even ahead of the Wii. But considering the norms for Nintendo console sales curves and the average effects of hardware revisions, I am not presently assuming extremely massive improvements to the current baseline or an uncharacteristically slow post-peak drop-off.
Right now I'm projecting 37.5M, ±2.5M. So, a very high likelihood of beating the PS4 in the U.S. Worst-case scenario, it falls slightly short.
Yeah I've noticed that sales in Europe aren't as good as the other countries, it's passed lifetime PS4 sales in Japan, right? Though if it has I'd assume it's because of the portable aspect since the Japanese market goes crazy for that. Thank you so much for the reply!
Europe has always been Sonyland. The PS4 has been selling at about PS2 levels in Europe so far (though because the PS2 had ridiculously good legs, which systems tend to not have anymore, the PS4 will probably fall well short of the PS2 lifetime), while the Switch hasn't been selling as well as it has in the U.S. In fact, the U.S. has always been more Nintendo-friendly than Europe. While total PS3+360 sales were only about 13% less than what they were in the U.S., the Wii sold nearly 20% fewer unit in Europe than in the U.S., so even relative to the market size Nintendo doesn't do quite as well in Europe as it does elsewhere.
PS4 November 2016 numbers estimate should be around 1.2m. The 1.1m was the first leak which was confirmed to be off after one year.