Okay, so here you are saying that multiplayer games are approaching 50% digital sales ratios. Either that or you are saying that multiplayer games are approaching 50% of all sales of video games period. I'm not 100% sure which one you meant, but I'm betting on the former.
Okay so Activision seeing it's multiplayer franchises reach near 50% digital sales, means it is the same for the entire industry? A 5% yearly increase in digital ratios for Activision's multiplayer games =/= a 5% yearly increase in digital ratios for all games.
1. Yes, I meant the former. Digital sales ratios for multiplayer games are approaching 50%. I said approaching because not all of them have had digital ratios as high as Destiny 2.
2. I've showed you an excerpt of Sony's breakdown for all PS4 games before:
Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2017 - 29% vs. 39%, an increase of 10 percent points.
Q2 - 22% vs. 27%, an increase of 5.
Q3 - 23% vs. 28%, an increase of 5.
Q4 - 37% vs. 43%, an increase of 6.
So there is a yearly increase of 5 percent points for all games.
Alright, sure. So if we assume that this 5% increase is going to continue each and every year, then it should take about five years from Q4 2017 for digital sales to reach over 70% of all games. So by Q4 2022. That should be enough for Stadia's lack of physical games to not matter, all that much. But that kind of assumes that there's not going to be some sort of hard cap on how far digital can grow. At least a temporary hard cap that is.
I'm pretty skeptical of this sort of thing though, because it reminds me of the sort of, missing the forest for the trees logic of Pachter.
"Wii, PS3, and 360 had a combined console sales of 260ish million. But this generation the combined console sales are way behind that and will never catch up. Therefore this shows that the console market is shrinking and will soon collapse." - More or less what Pachter has said umpteen billion times.
The problem is Pachter often glazes over important details that affect the market. Such as Nintendo's mishandling of the Wii U. Or the fact that when there's little reason to own an XB1, most people will just opt for a single system instead of having both (or to put this another way fewer people need to buy both systems when one of those systems isn't very appealing, or is redundant).
Anyway, I'd give it 50/50 odds that there will be some fly in the ointment that will keep digital from reaching over 70% of all game sales so quickly. The same way that Pachter's bean counter logic glazes over important details, we may be glazing over important details too.
If someone applied the same bean counter logic to the growth of a child, they would erroneously conclude that since Timmy grew 3 inches per year for the past five years, he will be 16 feet tall by age 70. Of course they just glazed over the simple fact that people eventually stop growing. But that's what happens when people just stare at the numbers all day, and never apply any other information.
I respect your belief/stance that physical games sales will continually, and rapidly lose marketshare over the next five years. I guess we'll just have to wait and see, because at this point I think that's all we can do.
Last edited by Cerebralbore101 - on 28 June 2019