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Prediction: MP4 will not release on Switch

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HyrulianScrolls said:
Amnesia said:

Thank you for opening this discussion ! I was really afraid to propose this idea here...

So to add my view, that some might not appreciate, I would say that the first base of the game was not really a failure or a disapointement, but it was decided by the highest heads of Nintendo that MP4, with every possible artistical direction and code optimisation, the game would just look ridiculous with a release on 2020 compared to the very last 8th gen games and the coming trailers and demo of the 9th gen. So they scraped it to restart with a more powerfull structure.

Or a softer hypothesis : they scraped it because they wanted a full use of the capacity of the Switch Pro coming soon.

Good point, I never thought of the idea that maybe MP4 was going well, but they just felt the Switch wasn't up to handling their vision for it so they are restarting with more powerful hardware. However, I'm not sure I can agree on the idea of a mid gen Switch upgrade that plays exclusive games the Switch doesn't. I mean, that would be pretty hard for Nintendo to successfully market and sell. One of the biggest reasons listed for Wii U's failure is that the name made it sound like an upgrade not a new system, and most people aren't going to want to buy an upgrade of a system they already have to play new games. Upgrades of systems work best as a way for tech junkies to get their fix, not by being required to play certain games. 

Have you already tried to run Ocarina of Time N64 at 60fps on an emulator, on a machine 1000 times more powerfull than a N64 ? You can't, because the game has native script limitation which just prevent it. BotW is certainly more a WiiU port to the Switch than a native Switch structure downgraded and ported to the WiiU. I totaly think they can decide to restart, like 80% of the work to rebuild the game optimaly for the Switch Pro, and then downgrad it for the base switch.

In that case it is the same thing to announce : "we restart from the begining" or : "we have to rebuild most of the game structure".

I am very superficial in hardware/software technic, so anyone here can say that I am saying bullshit, I try to stay general only as much as possible.



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
WR on TGM alternative mode : Fastest ITEM S9 rank ( <-- Just got massacred by the 2nd most powerfull player in the world )
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

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Amnesia said:

Thank you for opening this discussion ! I was really afraid to propose this idea here...

So to add my view, that some might not appreciate, I would say that the first base of the game was not really a failure or a disapointement, but it was decided by the highest heads of Nintendo that MP4, with every possible artistical direction and code optimisation, the game would just look ridiculous with a release on 2020 compared to the very last 8th gen games and the coming trailers and demo of the 9th gen. So they scraped it to restart with a more powerfull structure.

Or a softer hypothesis : they scraped it because they wanted a full use of the capacity of the Switch Pro coming soon.

It was reported that the approach of having studios from multiple countries work together didn't pan out, so that's why the original work got scrapped. Not because of graphics, but because it wasn't good.

Retro Studios is not going to need a Switch Pro or Switch successor to put out a great looking game. They developed the first three Metroid Prime games and all of them still hold up well today. This whole theory about processing power can be put to rest because it's a factor that holds no importance.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

HyrulianScrolls said:

Handhelds are not an accurate comparison. Switch is not a handheld exclusively. No Nintendo home console has gone longer than 6 years. Nintendo won't risk releasing the successor later than 2023 and getting that behind in terms of what's being done in the industry. The Switch is going to start to feel archaic compared to what developers are doing on PS5/X4 by 2023, Nintendo will feel like they're in the dark ages if they push the Switch further than that and it will hurt their reputation. 

Not true as NES originally released in 1983 with SNES releasing originally in 1990 which is 7 years they did that because their spot in the market was good also portables are a fair comparison because as it stands now the's no real alternative in the dedicated portable market to Switch so the portable performances have to be accounted for as well. What developers do on PS5/X4 won't really affect Switch same as like what's done on PS4/X1 doesn't affect it as the Switch's library is driven by exclusive and titles that don't require heavy specs to run same reason 3DS has had a 8 year run.

I'll add being the only device in the dedicated portable market due to its hybrid form factor will dictate a lot of what happens for example Gameboy's monopoly gave it a 9 year run before the GBC model was introduced which is essentially a pro-model of sorts and the actual successor came 3 years later meaning the GB had 12 years on the market before its successor released and it was discontinued two years later so 14 years active.



I do agree that we will see Switch 2 by 2023 most likely, possibly even 2022. Once most 3rd parties Switch over to PS5/Scarlett/PC, will be even harder for Switch to get 3rd party support than it is now, so if they want to keep getting 3rd party support they'll be forced to release a successor even though Switch will likely still be selling well then. Not sure that Metroid Prime 4 will take quite that long though, even though development was rebooted. I would assume it will release in 2021.



shikamaru317 said:
I do agree that we will see Switch 2 by 2023 most likely, possibly even 2022. Once most 3rd parties Switch over to PS5/Scarlett/PC, will be even harder for Switch to get 3rd party support than it is now, so if they want to keep getting 3rd party support they'll be forced to release a successor even though Switch will likely still be selling well then. Not sure that Metroid Prime 4 will take quite that long though, even though development was rebooted. I would assume it will release in 2021.

The third parties that could switch over to PS5, Scarlett and PC account for about 1% of the total third party support on Switch. Maybe 2%?



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

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Just because they're searching for an art director it doesnt mean that there was no one in those shoes (even as placeholder) and that a fair amount of development hasn't already taken place. If up until now they've been getting mechanics, script and story in place and need some fine tuning where art is concerned it could arrive in 2 years without being rushed.

And starting from scratch likely means the technical stuff (just as FFXV started from scratch) so they could already have a strong art and story basis to work from



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Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
WR on TGM alternative mode : Fastest ITEM S9 rank ( <-- Just got massacred by the 2nd most powerfull player in the world )
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

I don't think that will be the case. I'm sure they will release Metroid Prime 4 on the Switch.



That would only make sense if Nintendo would cut the life of the Switch short, like they did with the GBA or Wii U. But there's no reason for that right now.



My personal opinion is Metroid Prime was given to Retro so they’ll fail and Nintendo can shut down the studio with no controversy.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.