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Global Hardware 1 June 2019

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RolStoppable said:
COKTOE said:
40K eh? Those are some rough numbers, and there's nothing to rescue the XBO from the sales gutter it's getting awfully close to laying face-down in. Seeing how far it falls is the most interesting angle going right now. Just like in sports, I can enjoy a good blowout.

Microsoft would have been better off by skipping the Xbox One X and launching a successor this year or even late last year. While the graphical prowess would have been limited due to cross-gen, a console that is next gen draws a lot more attention than a mid-gen upgrade. The PS5 would then have been more powerful without a doubt due to launching later, but that's something Microsoft could have countered with a mid-gen upgrade for their Xbox 4 in 2022 to have the marketing message on their side again and by the time Sony brought their mid-gen upgrade, the difference wouldn't be as important anymore as it was at the beginning.

What Microsoft actually did was drag out a generation that they had clearly lost, so now their console business is in a very rough time for a couple of years. I suppose they bought into their own PR of "XB1 is outpacing 360 launch-aligned", so they turned a blind eye to proper sales analyses which would have revealed that the XB1 has 0 chance to keep up with the 360 in the long run.

Microsoft was smarter in the fast transition from the original Xbox to the 360 where the headstart clearly paid off. Of course the lesson to learn from the 360 is proper engineering of the console because it creates a bad reputation when the failure rate is so high, but the general idea of a headstart is sound despite not being a surefire ticket to increased success.

That's an interesting thought. Things couldn't realistically get much worse for Xbox, so you may be right.

The downside to that scenario is that the X-Box would have had to, especially if it dropped in 2019, ride out the rest of the gen with a wildly inferior platform to the PS4-Pro, and they were already fairing poorly in direct comparisons to the original PS4. It's possible sales, and the brand may have suffered even more in skipping the X.

 



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COKTOE said:
RolStoppable said:

Microsoft would have been better off by skipping the Xbox One X and launching a successor this year or even late last year. While the graphical prowess would have been limited due to cross-gen, a console that is next gen draws a lot more attention than a mid-gen upgrade. The PS5 would then have been more powerful without a doubt due to launching later, but that's something Microsoft could have countered with a mid-gen upgrade for their Xbox 4 in 2022 to have the marketing message on their side again and by the time Sony brought their mid-gen upgrade, the difference wouldn't be as important anymore as it was at the beginning.

What Microsoft actually did was drag out a generation that they had clearly lost, so now their console business is in a very rough time for a couple of years. I suppose they bought into their own PR of "XB1 is outpacing 360 launch-aligned", so they turned a blind eye to proper sales analyses which would have revealed that the XB1 has 0 chance to keep up with the 360 in the long run.

Microsoft was smarter in the fast transition from the original Xbox to the 360 where the headstart clearly paid off. Of course the lesson to learn from the 360 is proper engineering of the console because it creates a bad reputation when the failure rate is so high, but the general idea of a headstart is sound despite not being a surefire ticket to increased success.

That's an interesting thought. Things couldn't realistically get much worse for Xbox, so you may be right.

The downside to that scenario is that the X-Box would have had to, especially if it dropped in 2019, ride out the rest of the gen with a wildly inferior platform to the PS4-Pro, and they were already fairing poorly in direct comparisons to the original PS4. It's possible sales, and the brand may have suffered even more in skipping the X.

A 2018 or 2019 'XB2' would have been extremely tough to get a decent SSD in there in terms of speed and size, along with PCIe 4.0 or whatever recent/future tech they're using to achieve these loading speeds they are promising. Not to mention it would also almost certainly lack ray tracing. You can imagine PS would probably try to move up their schedule a bit in a 2018 scenario, but they could wait a year if it was launched in 2019 instead. PS having a bigger, faster storage solution, PCIe 4.0, and ray tracing, would be a marketing nuke against MS. The cost for XB to try and come close to the tech and specs PS5 would have, would cost way more than $500 if launched by now or soon. It could have led to another Dreamcast scenario.

Last edited by EricHiggin - on 20 June 2019

The Canadian National Anthem According To Justin Trudeau

 

Oh planet Earth! The home of native lands, 
True social law, in all of us demand.
With cattle farts, we view sea rise,
Our North sinking slowly.
From far and snide, oh planet Earth, 
Our healthcare is yours free!
Science save our land, harnessing the breeze,
Oh planet Earth, smoke weed and ferment yeast.
Oh planet Earth, ell gee bee queue and tee.

COKTOE said:
40K eh? Those are some rough numbers, and there's nothing to rescue the XBO from the sales gutter it's getting awfully close to laying face-down in. Seeing how far it falls is the most interesting angle going right now. Just like in sports, I can enjoy a good blowout.

Pretty much, Switch vs PS4 isn't much of a race any more now that the PS4 is showing its age, and Switch numbers aren't even that interesting due to a lack of big games. Until Mario Maker 2 arrives, about the only reason I check the numbers any more is to see how low Xbox One can go.



EricHiggin said:
COKTOE said:

That's an interesting thought. Things couldn't realistically get much worse for Xbox, so you may be right.

The downside to that scenario is that the X-Box would have had to, especially if it dropped in 2019, ride out the rest of the gen with a wildly inferior platform to the PS4-Pro, and they were already fairing poorly in direct comparisons to the original PS4. It's possible sales, and the brand may have suffered even more in skipping the X.

A 2018 or 2019 'XB2' would have been extremely tough to get a decent SSD in there in terms of speed and size, along with PCIe 4.0 or whatever recent/future tech they're using to achieve these loading speeds they are promising. Not to mention it would also almost certainly lack ray tracing. You can imagine PS would probably try to move up their schedule a bit in a 2018 scenario, but they could wait a year if it was launched in 2019 instead. PS having a bigger, faster storage solution, PCIe 4.0, and ray tracing, would be a marketing nuke against MS. The cost for XB to try and come close to the tech and specs PS5 would have, would cost way more than $500 if launched by now or soon. It could have led to another Dreamcast scenario.

I agree on 2018, but 2019 could have been possible. The main difference probably would have been the version of Navi GPU(without hardware Raytracing in a 2019 case) and Ryzen CPU(Zen 2 instead of potentially Zen 3).

PCIe 4.0 is certainly not used in a console yet (too expensive and consuming, and doubly so for hardware which supports it), the SSD might potentially be smaller (we have to see if PS5/Scarlett really use an SSD as storage or just as a buffer for the HDD) - and it would have been more expensive.

In other words, no Dreamcast scenario - more like a mix of 360 (launching one year early, giving itself a head start) and XBO (somewhat underpowered compared to the competition, but not excessively so).



Bofferbrauer2 said:
EricHiggin said:

A 2018 or 2019 'XB2' would have been extremely tough to get a decent SSD in there in terms of speed and size, along with PCIe 4.0 or whatever recent/future tech they're using to achieve these loading speeds they are promising. Not to mention it would also almost certainly lack ray tracing. You can imagine PS would probably try to move up their schedule a bit in a 2018 scenario, but they could wait a year if it was launched in 2019 instead. PS having a bigger, faster storage solution, PCIe 4.0, and ray tracing, would be a marketing nuke against MS. The cost for XB to try and come close to the tech and specs PS5 would have, would cost way more than $500 if launched by now or soon. It could have led to another Dreamcast scenario.

I agree on 2018, but 2019 could have been possible. The main difference probably would have been the version of Navi GPU(without hardware Raytracing in a 2019 case) and Ryzen CPU(Zen 2 instead of potentially Zen 3).

PCIe 4.0 is certainly not used in a console yet (too expensive and consuming, and doubly so for hardware which supports it), the SSD might potentially be smaller (we have to see if PS5/Scarlett really use an SSD as storage or just as a buffer for the HDD) - and it would have been more expensive.

In other words, no Dreamcast scenario - more like a mix of 360 (launching one year early, giving itself a head start) and XBO (somewhat underpowered compared to the competition, but not excessively so).

Sure the hardware launching this year could have been as up to date as possible, but how expensive do you think that would be for MS and how much would they be willing to subsidize it? Would MS have paid to put Ryzen on 7nm, because if they didn't it would consume considerably more power at 14nm. Would they pay to have Navi put on 14nm? If the console performance was considered high at 14nm, that means a bigger PSU, bigger or more expensive cooling, larger console shell, etc. It wouldn't have been all that much different than the PS3 engineering and manufacturing cost as well as subsidy to try and get it to $500 by now. If they charged anymore than that, or lost the performance crown by a significant amount again due to lower input costs and lack of subsidy, it would have been Dreamcast for them.



The Canadian National Anthem According To Justin Trudeau

 

Oh planet Earth! The home of native lands, 
True social law, in all of us demand.
With cattle farts, we view sea rise,
Our North sinking slowly.
From far and snide, oh planet Earth, 
Our healthcare is yours free!
Science save our land, harnessing the breeze,
Oh planet Earth, smoke weed and ferment yeast.
Oh planet Earth, ell gee bee queue and tee.

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Well, now in June, things seems to be clearer to know what the consoles are going to do this year, so...

Switch keeps doing very well, with a huge growth from last year despite no heavy hitters until now, although last year performance of Switch was kinda disappointing too and is still behind what PS4 did last year in the same period, so let's say Switch is doing that, "very well" and is surprising me with its performance. This is not the strongest period of the year for Nintendo consoles anyway. Super Mario Maker 2 in a few days is going to help Switch sales a lot. MM2 seems to be the next great franchise for Nintendo in terms of sales. It's going to do gangbusters. If i have to guess right now, Switch seems to be on pace to end the year with 19-19'5M sold to consumers (and around 18-18'5M shipments, so doing better than what they said last FY), more than i expected at the begining of the year, way more...so i admit being wrong on that. But I also don't expect this kind of growth (+25-30% YOY) for the last 3-4 months of the year, there can be a growth of course, but not by that much. because i don't expect Pokemon S&S doing what SSBU did last year, so yeah, very good year for Switch, maybe they can even reach 20M sold. 2019 should be peak year for the console.

For PS4 and Sony's prediction of 16M shipped by this FY, it's time to say the same thing i said about 20M Nintendo forecast last year. NO WAY IT'S HAPPENING. PS4 is on pace to fight to reach 14M sales to consumers. If there is not a huge official and permanent price cut for PS4 base model for $200 or something like that during the second half of the year i see it impossible PS4 can reach that goal of 16M shipped. Although, if we take some perspective of the situation, selling 13-14M units to consumers in 2019 so far in the gen and after so many units already sold is still impressive, and what i expect is Sony admiting in the future they were too optimistic like Nintendo was last year.

As for XBOX..., i said months ago that XBO won't reach 50M before next gen console arrives, and after knowing now when exactly Scarlett is going to launch, Holiday 2020, i'm pretty sure now. XBO needs to sell around 7'5M units from June 2019 to Nov 2020. They won't....100% sure about it.



EricHiggin said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

I agree on 2018, but 2019 could have been possible. The main difference probably would have been the version of Navi GPU(without hardware Raytracing in a 2019 case) and Ryzen CPU(Zen 2 instead of potentially Zen 3).

PCIe 4.0 is certainly not used in a console yet (too expensive and consuming, and doubly so for hardware which supports it), the SSD might potentially be smaller (we have to see if PS5/Scarlett really use an SSD as storage or just as a buffer for the HDD) - and it would have been more expensive.

In other words, no Dreamcast scenario - more like a mix of 360 (launching one year early, giving itself a head start) and XBO (somewhat underpowered compared to the competition, but not excessively so).

Sure the hardware launching this year could have been as up to date as possible, but how expensive do you think that would be for MS and how much would they be willing to subsidize it? Would MS have paid to put Ryzen on 7nm, because if they didn't it would consume considerably more power at 14nm. Would they pay to have Navi put on 14nm? If the console performance was considered high at 14nm, that means a bigger PSU, bigger or more expensive cooling, larger console shell, etc. It wouldn't have been all that much different than the PS3 engineering and manufacturing cost as well as subsidy to try and get it to $500 by now. If they charged anymore than that, or lost the performance crown by a significant amount again due to lower input costs and lack of subsidy, it would have been Dreamcast for them.

7nm would be very much set this year. Last year would have been 14nm, and that's why I crossed that one out. I agree that doing it in 14nm would not be feasible.

I made a test built on Alternate with similar powerful hardware as is expected for Scarlett and got to a price of around 800€ - and that's consumer price. Microsoft could certainly shave off at least 100€ off of that, if not 200€. At 600€, they could sell it at $499 for the first year(s) until the prices drop for them. That was the modus operandi for gen 5-7, and the losses ain't too big to not recover them with the software sales.

Dreamcast needed about twice what it was selling for, and we're far away from that. Plus, Dreamcast got plugged because Sega was bleeding money everywhere, not just on the console. There's no chance that could happen with Microsoft anytime soon.



Xbox1 reads like a dying console now the moment Spencer took over its gone downhill. Under Matrick the xbox one console would have been better off even with its rocky start



...not much time to post on here anymore, used to be some good ol times on VGchartz...

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Miss the VGCHARTZ of 2008 - 2013...

RolStoppable said:
COKTOE said:
40K eh? Those are some rough numbers, and there's nothing to rescue the XBO from the sales gutter it's getting awfully close to laying face-down in. Seeing how far it falls is the most interesting angle going right now. Just like in sports, I can enjoy a good blowout.

Microsoft would have been better off by skipping the Xbox One X and launching a successor this year or even late last year. While the graphical prowess would have been limited due to cross-gen, a console that is next gen draws a lot more attention than a mid-gen upgrade. The PS5 would then have been more powerful without a doubt due to launching later, but that's something Microsoft could have countered with a mid-gen upgrade for their Xbox 4 in 2022 to have the marketing message on their side again and by the time Sony brought their mid-gen upgrade, the difference wouldn't be as important anymore as it was at the beginning.

What Microsoft actually did was drag out a generation that they had clearly lost, so now their console business is in a very rough time for a couple of years. I suppose they bought into their own PR of "XB1 is outpacing 360 launch-aligned", so they turned a blind eye to proper sales analyses which would have revealed that the XB1 has 0 chance to keep up with the 360 in the long run.

Microsoft was smarter in the fast transition from the original Xbox to the 360 where the headstart clearly paid off. Of course the lesson to learn from the 360 is proper engineering of the console because it creates a bad reputation when the failure rate is so high, but the general idea of a headstart is sound despite not being a surefire ticket to increased success.

That's a great point actually, I mean... Microsoft drew it out longer themselves with promises from the very start, when the X1 arrived it arrived pretty much DOA but instantly got promises that the power of the cloud will fix it, wait up for that, then a few years later it was the power of the X1X will fix it wait for that while the main issue was the tainted name from the get go because it was linked with TV, Sports, Kinect, Ryse, Mattick, No used games, TV, Sports, always online, no free online play for Fortnite, TV, Sports, Etc. the whole X1 name was linked with anti gamer things, more power just meant the same anti gamer ideas but stronger.

Imagine if they had released the Xbox 1 X... but not as an Xbox 1, If they had released that system as the successor in name but the exact same hardware which launched in it, increasing from DDR3 > 5, 8GB > 12GB, 1.79TF > 6TF, Massive VHS > Slick Vapor Chamber, but instead of Xbox 1 label and OS give it a different operating system externally to the user but with a lineup of new games in 2019 like Crackdown 3 and possible push Halo Infinite more and announce the Nintendo rivaling fact that the system can play 100% of Xbox 1 games, near 100% backwards compatibility, with the exception of Kinect titles as that is being moved away from (heck even allow them work with the adapter which was being sold down the line but make it so that out of the box it was moving away from Kinect but sticking with gaming), It would have given the system the ability to have its own line of games which didn't have to run on the base model of X1 which would clearly hold back any titles designed from the ground up with 6TF of power were going to suffer horribly having the 1.79 noose around the neck holding them back.

Microsoft have even done this move twice in the past with their OS, Windows Vista was massively unpopular, Windows 7 is effectively Vista with a new coat of paint, same with Windows 8 / 10, even down to drivers from the unpopular OS working with the "good" OS, I'm sure you'll have noticed that games at times get confused as to which OS their on (Ultra Street Fighter 4 for example if benched will claim it's running on a build of Windows 8, in windows 10) but under the hood those good OS's 7/10 have tons of Vista/8 in them but without the features that users complained about most strongly.... and 2 of the features that were hated were the names Vista and windows 8, Microsoft would have been better off pulling the same idea and old yellow'ing the X1 name.



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COKTOE said:

That's an interesting thought. Things couldn't realistically get much worse for Xbox, so you may be right.

The downside to that scenario is that the X-Box would have had to, especially if it dropped in 2019, ride out the rest of the gen with a wildly inferior platform to the PS4-Pro, and they were already fairing poorly in direct comparisons to the original PS4. It's possible sales, and the brand may have suffered even more in skipping the X.

A new generation provides the chance for a proper reset of more than the sales units alone. Sacrificing the tail end of a generation in order to build towards the next generation is a tradeoff where a console manufacturer takes some small additional damage to an already lost generation in exchange for a potentially big payoff in the following generation. A recent example of this is the Wii U to Switch transition where Wii U's 2016 had few first party releases and no high profile ones, but in turn Switch's 2017 was just about the strongest first year lineup a console has ever had and that laid the foundation for a runaway success story.

Now it's important to mention that Nintendo used the reset to overhaul their image, the first step being a different branding for the console itself, because that instantly tells the market that the new console is different than what came before it. The repeated error that Microsoft has made is that they stick with the Xbox name, so consumers' perception and expectations carry over from one generation to the next. The Xbox name is good in the USA and the UK, but it's detrimental mostly everywhere else. It's a situation where Microsoft is too afraid to give up a benefit in a couple of countries for the chance to do better globally. While Scarlett has yet to get its final name, it's likely that it will be another Xbox and that will shove them in the same corner of a dominant USA and UK share of their total sales again. Their total sales may very well increase if they execute without any big errors, but when it comes to the question if the console can sell 100m+ units, it's easy to conclude that that is very, very improbable without a more balanced distribution of global sales.

Since the Xbox One was a series of blunders leading up to its launch and beyond, the bar is set very low for Microsoft to do better with Scarlett. It will be first and foremost a question of how much better and a lot of that also depends on what Sony does with the PS5. It won't be until this time next year that the information is out, so there's not any more I have to say on this topic.



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