Switch reaches 20% market share. I know it's mostly made up by VGC but still, it is an accomplishment.

And also, now the difference between Switch and Xbox One is lower than 8 million

I have a feeling Switch will surpase X1 before 2020 hits.

I was more talking about what defines the "market" since it is unclear whether the Switch is in the same market as the PS4 and Xbox One, or it is in the handheld market, or even its own hybrid console market (even some would argue it isn't in the same generation, but I don't agree). You, as VGC, decided to consider the Switch in the same market as the PS4 and Xbox One, replacing the already existent Wii U which was indeed in this market. That's why I was saying "mostly made up by VGC".

But there were already a thread about this so there is no need for further explanation I think

Yeah, I shouldn't use "made up" which sounds negative, but you did get my point

At the current rate it would take the Xbox and Switch about 5 years to break even with PS4 (due entirely to poor Xbox sales). Another way for them to reach 50% would be for PS4 to basically stop selling. Thats not gonna happen so unless people want to go the distance with this one, I think its safe to call this 50%+ for PS4.

Not a safe call at all tbh.

Using the present rate of gain fails to take into account that while PS4 isn't just going to stop selling, it will decline from here on out, while Switch still has lots of room to grow.

Lifetime, it's quite probable we'll end up looking at around 50 million for Xbone and over 100 million for Switch, so PS4 would have to sell more than 150 million to retain 50% marketshare. Assuming it's not a PS3-tier fuckup, PS5's likely arrival in late 2020 will cut PS4's legs substantially, preventing it from reaching that high.

and the X1 drops to below 50k globally per week, means the Switch gets to eat 1/8th of a million out of that X1 lead over the Nintendo beast in a week, with all the games coming to the Switch between now and Christmas this holiday season is going to be a massacre for the Switch unless something major happens from either of the other 2 camps before then, heck.... the main upset I could see coming to the table between now and Xmas would be a Switch-Lite and the subsequent reduction in price that the base model might see from that. Between Mario Maker 2, Luigi's Mansion 3 and the upcoming Pokemon Sword and Shield (just occurred to me this is the first time I think that Pokemon games have the same initial.... as in Blue/Red, G/S, R/S, D/P, B/W, S/M... and it's gonna be Pokemon S/S, it's a good thing those initials have no bad links to them!) then Nintendo is going to have a very jolly Christmas indeed. Unless all of their upcoming titles bomb!, who knows it has happened before like on the Wii-U where a bunch of titles like star fox zero ended up in the yellow on metacritic and helped to tank that system.

I hardly think there's much of a chance the likes of Mario Maker 2 or Luigi's Mansion 3 will bomb. Those games aren't comparable with Starfox Zero which was a low budget experimental title built around a gimmick already proven to be unwanted. Besides which, Wii U was already doomed long before the likes of Starfox Zero showed up.

Whoa @ that Xbox adjust down. Was the first week at sub 50k and almost jumped to being a sub 40k week.

Being outsold nearly 3:1 by the switch in the USA can clearly see why Nintendo are looking to manufacture some switch units outside of China to avoid the tariff but still crazy to see the X1 lose another 8k off already really bad numbers.

@curl-6 I know they're very likely to do just fine, I just meant it would take that happening to mess up the end of the year for the switch, I agree btw with Starfox on wiiu was so bad to ignore fan feedback telling them not to make that game but I think stuff like that and federation force were learning experiences for Nintendo and they genuinely seem to have learned this Gen.