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2020: The peek of the Switch?

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - 2020: The peek of the Switch?

There is no way 2019 will be peak year for Switch.  It's still in caterpillar mode, but with the software just announced it is ready to come out and start being a butterfly soon.  Switch has an insanely good 1st party lineup this year.  It's going to sell over 20m this year, but there are still some things that are going to make later years sell even more (peak 2020 or 2021).

1) Nintendo is only projecting 18m this fiscal year, even though there software is obviously a lot better than last year's.  They are going to be short supplied during holidays this year and probably for a few months afterward.  This alone is going to keep 2019 from being the peak year, but there are still other factors.

2) Third party games are just getting started and are going to ramp up.  Switch is going to keep getting unique exclusives: MUA3, Dark Crystal Tactics, Astral Chain, Trials of Mana, etc....  Those games are just a small taste of what is to come.  Also Witcher 3 is a 32GB cart.  Expect more bigger games to get ported over like this.  The third party flood of games is still coming.

3) Still no price cut or hardware revision yet.  There are a ton of handheld gamers still not willing to shell out $300.  These will come over when the price gets low enough.

4) PS5 and Scarlett are going to give Switch a sales boost.  Most gamers are a lot more price conscious than the people on this board (or at least their parents are).  Once they see the choice between a $500 console with a few games and a $200-$300 Switch with a ton of games, then they will buy a Switch.  Switch doesn't have this benefit yet, because during the holidays PS4 and XB1 are cheaper and have the bigger library.  Once PS5 and Scarlett release, then this advantage will go to the Switch.

5) Expect Nintendo to keep making more first party games.  Since all of their resources are on one console they will both revive old franchises and develop new IP.  Switch is barely over the 2 year mark and still has a ton more first party games to release.  Believe it.


Overall, Switch is just getting started.  It has a lot more power cards to play and Sony and Microsoft are planning to release powerful, pricey, systems that are going to struggle until they get a price cut.  People have still not realized that Switch is still in its slow phase.  Expect it to take off in a few months and not come down again for several years.



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The_Liquid_Laser said:

There is no way 2019 will be peak year for Switch.  It's still in caterpillar mode, but with the software just announced it is ready to come out and start being a butterfly soon.  Switch has an insanely good 1st party lineup this year.  It's going to sell over 20m this year, but there are still some things that are going to make later years sell even more (peak 2020 or 2021).

1) Nintendo is only projecting 18m this fiscal year, even though there software is obviously a lot better than last year's.  They are going to be short supplied during holidays this year and probably for a few months afterward.  This alone is going to keep 2019 from being the peak year, but there are still other factors.

2) Third party games are just getting started and are going to ramp up.  Switch is going to keep getting unique exclusives: MUA3, Dark Crystal Tactics, Astral Chain, Trials of Mana, etc....  Those games are just a small taste of what is to come.  Also Witcher 3 is a 32GB cart.  Expect more bigger games to get ported over like this.  The third party flood of games is still coming.

3) Still no price cut or hardware revision yet.  There are a ton of handheld gamers still not willing to shell out $300.  These will come over when the price gets low enough.

4) PS5 and Scarlett are going to give Switch a sales boost.  Most gamers are a lot more price conscious than the people on this board (or at least their parents are).  Once they see the choice between a $500 console with a few games and a $200-$300 Switch with a ton of games, then they will buy a Switch.  Switch doesn't have this benefit yet, because during the holidays PS4 and XB1 are cheaper and have the bigger library.  Once PS5 and Scarlett release, then this advantage will go to the Switch.

5) Expect Nintendo to keep making more first party games.  Since all of their resources are on one console they will both revive old franchises and develop new IP.  Switch is barely over the 2 year mark and still has a ton more first party games to release.  Believe it.


Overall, Switch is just getting started.  It has a lot more power cards to play and Sony and Microsoft are planning to release powerful, pricey, systems that are going to struggle until they get a price cut.  People have still not realized that Switch is still in its slow phase.  Expect it to take off in a few months and not come down again for several years.

Quick correction, Astral Chain and Marvel UA3 are both first party.



Yes, Switch will peak in 2020, but only because they are about to have the most insane games lineup they have ever had for a single year, on a single console. Mario Maker 2, and Poke'mon will both sell over 10 million copies. Astral Chain, Luigi's Mansion 3, Link's Awakening, Daemon X Machina, and Fire Emblem all have 1 million+ seller potential.

Honestly, I think there will be a serious Switch shortage this holiday season. Sales will overflow into 2020, because of all the people in 2019 that desperately wanted a Switch, but couldn't find one in the wild.



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TheMisterManGuy said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

There is no way 2019 will be peak year for Switch.  It's still in caterpillar mode, but with the software just announced it is ready to come out and start being a butterfly soon.  Switch has an insanely good 1st party lineup this year.  It's going to sell over 20m this year, but there are still some things that are going to make later years sell even more (peak 2020 or 2021).

1) Nintendo is only projecting 18m this fiscal year, even though there software is obviously a lot better than last year's.  They are going to be short supplied during holidays this year and probably for a few months afterward.  This alone is going to keep 2019 from being the peak year, but there are still other factors.

2) Third party games are just getting started and are going to ramp up.  Switch is going to keep getting unique exclusives: MUA3, Dark Crystal Tactics, Astral Chain, Trials of Mana, etc....  Those games are just a small taste of what is to come.  Also Witcher 3 is a 32GB cart.  Expect more bigger games to get ported over like this.  The third party flood of games is still coming.

3) Still no price cut or hardware revision yet.  There are a ton of handheld gamers still not willing to shell out $300.  These will come over when the price gets low enough.

4) PS5 and Scarlett are going to give Switch a sales boost.  Most gamers are a lot more price conscious than the people on this board (or at least their parents are).  Once they see the choice between a $500 console with a few games and a $200-$300 Switch with a ton of games, then they will buy a Switch.  Switch doesn't have this benefit yet, because during the holidays PS4 and XB1 are cheaper and have the bigger library.  Once PS5 and Scarlett release, then this advantage will go to the Switch.

5) Expect Nintendo to keep making more first party games.  Since all of their resources are on one console they will both revive old franchises and develop new IP.  Switch is barely over the 2 year mark and still has a ton more first party games to release.  Believe it.


Overall, Switch is just getting started.  It has a lot more power cards to play and Sony and Microsoft are planning to release powerful, pricey, systems that are going to struggle until they get a price cut.  People have still not realized that Switch is still in its slow phase.  Expect it to take off in a few months and not come down again for several years.

Quick correction, Astral Chain and Marvel UA3 are both first party.

Hmm...not sure if I'm ready to consider Team Ninja and Platinum Games as first party.  Obviously, Nintendo had a role in these games being exclusives, but I kind of put them in the same category as Octopath Traveler.



The_Liquid_Laser said:

Hmm...not sure if I'm ready to consider Team Ninja and Platinum Games as first party.  Obviously, Nintendo had a role in these games being exclusives, but I kind of put them in the same category as Octopath Traveler.

Nintendo is producing both titles and publishing them worldwide. Octopath was a Square Enix game Nintendo simply published internationally, but they weren't involved in the production like they are with UA3 and Astral Chain.



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The_Liquid_Laser said:
TheMisterManGuy said:

Quick correction, Astral Chain and Marvel UA3 are both first party.

Hmm...not sure if I'm ready to consider Team Ninja and Platinum Games as first party.  Obviously, Nintendo had a role in these games being exclusives, but I kind of put them in the same category as Octopath Traveler.

Astral Chain is first party much in the same way W101 is as even though PG develop it Nintendo contracted PG to do a first party title for them.



TheMisterManGuy said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Hmm...not sure if I'm ready to consider Team Ninja and Platinum Games as first party.  Obviously, Nintendo had a role in these games being exclusives, but I kind of put them in the same category as Octopath Traveler.

Nintendo is producing both titles and publishing them worldwide. Octopath was a Square Enix game Nintendo simply published internationally, but they weren't involved in the production like they are with UA3 and Astral Chain.

Just looking into this and you are right.  I am especially shocked about MUA3, since other studios produced the first two games.  It is kind of funny to me that Sony can make a first party Spider-Man game and a year later Nintendo can release another first party game with Spider-Man in it.  Kinda surreal.



I just hope Nintendo doesn’t slam down the reset button like they do every generation. I want to see a new more powerful iteration of Switch hardware with improved performance on software and perhaps some additional features or higher quality components.

In other words, I want the Switch ride to keep going with new updates hardware. And not the same emulated shit they did with the Wii U over Wii, or the Wii over Gamecube. CONTINUE and ITERATE! =D



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The_Liquid_Laser said:
TheMisterManGuy said:

Nintendo is producing both titles and publishing them worldwide. Octopath was a Square Enix game Nintendo simply published internationally, but they weren't involved in the production like they are with UA3 and Astral Chain.

Just looking into this and you are right.  I am especially shocked about MUA3, since other studios produced the first two games.  It is kind of funny to me that Sony can make a first party Spider-Man game and a year later Nintendo can release another first party game with Spider-Man in it.  Kinda surreal.

A lot of that has to do with Marvel's new "Make epic games" policy, which mandates developers with the Marvel license to develop the best games possible.



fatslob-:O said:
Nearly zero chance of that happening without price cut and I'm not counting on it happening either in the long-term. By the end of this year, the vast majority of Nintendo's leading game franchises will have released thus the Switch will likely end up experiencing sagging sales next year ...

This sounds a lot like what was said a a year or two ago. "Nintendo will decline next year because they released Mario and Zelda." That hasn't happened, and I don't think it will happen for 2019. We are already seeing third party put more stuff on the Switch and this will continue as Switch software sales remain strong. 

There is also a potential hardware revision which will increase sales much as it has for the PS4 and XBox One. So this idea that it will peak without a price cut is silly. 



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