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2020: The peek of the Switch?

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fatslob-:O said:

He never confirmed one as well so let's put aside the idea now that a sequel is coming ... 

Never said it was. I said it sold well enough for a sequel to be possible.

'Typically' much lower doesn't mean that they're not AAA games! No indies that are equipped with less than $10M will be able to pull off those games with similar production quality ... 

As far as Splatoon 2 is concerned are you only counting credits ? If you are then it's practically the norm for the industry to just leave out staff who didn't see the game to completion ... 

Maybe not the majority but certainly the most important output during this generation and most likely the next one as well ... 

Yes, Nintendo games obviously have more to work with than your average indie. But most of their games don't reach 100+ working on a single game at any moment levels. BotW was the most ambitious they've gotten at a core team of 300, and that's a rarity for Nintendo, and Zelda games are usually their biggest. Meanwhile, Ubisoft regularly has around 600 or 700 developers working on ONE Assasin's Creed game at any given moment, and those are almost annual releases.

Regarding Splatoon 2, I'm aware of the industry trend of omitting staff from the credits, but that mostly happens to games that spend an unusually long time in development, and while it's possible some people on the Splatoon 2 team left during development to work on other projects, are you going to sit here and tell me that a large portion of the Splat2 team could've left within the span of a year and a half? Not likely IMO.

Only so much time that they'll keep having effect before hardware sales start sagging ... 

And luckily Nintendo always has a lot of games in development at once. Just because you don't see them doesn't mean they're not there yet, especially given their tendency to keep games under wraps until they're as close to release as possible.



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My guess is 2022 when the Switch plus hits its stride



fatslob-:O said:
Nearly zero chance of that happening without price cut and I'm not counting on it happening either in the long-term. By the end of this year, the vast majority of Nintendo's leading game franchises will have released thus the Switch will likely end up experiencing sagging sales next year ...
thismeintiel said:
I'm pretty sure this will be the peak year. Nintendo is going to have a hard time matching it's releases this year, especially Pokemon. I also think we'll see a $249 Switch, even if only for BF week.

Unless Nintendo drops to $199 sometime next year, this will probably be its peak year. Not that sales will collapse. 2020 should be relatively close to this year. 2021 is when the real declines will happen.

Well, I am not sure if 2020 or 2019 will be the peak, but you both are way too sure about this. This is by far not clear yet. That is why I think a wager is in order. Put your VG$ where your mouth is.

Last edited by Mnementh - on 13 June 2019

3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

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It could be this year as much as next year: depends on hardware revisions, price cut, Sinnoh Remake. I'm inclined to say 2020 due to Animal Crossing but we'll see



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RolStoppable said:
I'll just ignore the original post because of its questionable logic and instead focus on the question the thread is asking.

2020 can be expected to be better than 2019 because of the effects of a console revision and a price reduction lasting through the whole year, but that doesn't mean 2020 will be the peak year. Aside from people commonly forgetting that Switch's stake in the handheld market can't be fully realized until price has come down to an appropriate level (a sub-200 dollar Switch might not be available before 2021), another very important factor is that Nintendo has now only one console which changes things significantly.

Previously, Nintendo's top development teams had to go back and forth between two consoles to boost their sales which resulted in a loss of momentum for both consoles at different times. Breath of the Wild 2 is just the beginning of hammering the point home that one console is much easier to support. The teams that worked on MK8D/ARMS, Splatoon 2 and Super Mario Odyssey also have another Switch game in the pipeline, so there won't be a sudden shortage of system sellers like on previous Nintendo consoles, with the exception being the NES because that too was Nintendo's only console at the time.

There are also a multitude of 3DS game developers, both first and third party, who have been slow to transition. Switch will have a very robust software lineup for the next few years, so that creates a very appealing console in conjunction with the right price. The timing of revisions and price reductions is still up in the air and as long as Switch sells as well as it does (there's already growth in year 3 despite neither a revision or price cut), Nintendo can postpone those things and notably extend Switch's lifecycle in the process. 2019 won't be Switch's peak year and 2020 might not be it either.

Whichever year is the peak year is really whatever, more pertinent to the Nintendo Switch will be its tail.

The potential for a large second wave of first party software could give the hardware some much better legs this time around.

Breath of the Wild 2, Metroid Prime 4, etc. certainly indicates at least potential for the beginning of that second software wave.

Revisions, price cuts, software... if things play out well, the long term hardware/software sales could certainly be quite bountiful.



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I'm surprised people are thinking mid-tier games will be a reason for Switch to peak in 2020.

@fatslob there are A and AA games at minimum between Indie and AAA. On my account most of Nintendo games would be AA, with Zelda and Mario getting AAA budget, perhaps Smash and Mario Kart as well.



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Soundwave said:
2020's focus also, hate to say it in the gaming world will be the PS5/XB2 launches, they're the new systems, they will get the lion's share of attention. Particularly the PS5 as it is the successor to the market leading platform.

Everything can go south, the PS2 was doing better than the PS4 and had a bigger domination yet the PS3 flopped at launch.

Locals switch their preferences every other day. Call of duty was shit 2 years ago and battlefield 5 was the shit then the year or 2 idk the roles reversed.

Switch is getting more momentum every year. It is getting incredible third party support this year and as we still have many years of support for PS4/Xbox One, Switch will still be getting some games.

Also, let's not act like Nintendo won't do anything to face the release of the new consoles. They don't show games too in advance anymore, metroid was special cause it was to reassure fans that a main title was in developpement with the announcement of a remake on 3DS and after federation force, so everything is pointing out the they will have Breath of the wild sequel ready for the competition and probably a Mario title and Metroid Prime 4/Bayonetta 3 not too after. Switch still doesn't have a big price cut or any at all in most regions, and let's not count out a new model. 



kazuyamishima said:
2019 peak year.

At the beginning of this year, we saw high switch sales due to the smash bros effect.

There will be no smash bros at the end of this year.

S Tier: 2D AAA Mario, New Mario Kart, Sports Arcade Motion Games* ( 20+ - 40 Million Range)

A Tier: Smash Bros., Pokemon New, 3d AAA Mario, Zelda classics(1, Ocarina) or BOTW formula, Animal Crossing ( 10+ - 20 Million Range)

B Tier: Kirby, Mario Sports( Sonic Olympics Games too), Donkey Kong 2d and 3d AAA, Mario Party, Zelda remakes, Splatoon, Pokemon Remakes ( 4+M - 10 Million Range)

C Tier: Metroid, Arms, New Ideas, 3d Mascot ( not Mario, Zelda or DK), Fire Emblem, Mario & Luigi RPGs, Mario vs Donkey Kong, Tomodachi Life,  Yoshi Games, Pokemon Spin Off (2M - 4 Millions Range)

D Tier: Kid Icarus, Rhythm Heaven series, Chibi Robo series, Osu no Quedan series, Golden Sun, Xenoblade, Other Tactics series, Race arcade Series ( not Mario Kart). ( 1M+ -2 Millions Range).



fatslob-:O said:

Their AAA games are the only ones that have any real system selling power to begin with ... 

False as the non AAA titles in the first party have shown to have equal or greater system selling power than the titles that can be considered AAA, for example the likes of Pokemon, Tomodachi, Mario Kart and Animal Crossing for example aren't AAA but consistently shift more hardware than other first party games. Then we have the likes of Fire Emblem which has significant system selling power in Japan so this claim here is untrue.



2D Mario, Donkey Kong, Casual Sports titles, and new ips all have potential to have strong selling power.