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2020: The peek of the Switch?

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In terms of software, Pokemon Gen 8 is their last big bullet left, since Zelda, Mario, Smash and Mario Kart are already available on the system. Of course we can see successors of the titles (except of Smash), but the impact on hardware won't be that much anymore. In 2020 and future, hardware will mainly be sold through price cuts and hardware revisions instead of new software.
Very difficult to predict the peak because of changing circumstances. If the new hardware revisions fly off the shelves like the DSlite, everything is possible the next years.



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siebensus4 said:
In terms of software, Pokemon Gen 8 is their last big bullet left, since Zelda, Mario, Smash and Mario Kart are already available on the system. Of course we can see successors of the titles (except of Smash), but the impact on hardware won't be that much anymore. In 2020 and future, hardware will mainly be sold through price cuts and hardware revisions instead of new software.
Very difficult to predict the peak because of changing circumstances. If the new hardware revisions fly off the shelves like the DSlite, everything is possible the next years.

 Don't released Animal Crossing neither 2d full fledge Mario Bros. 

One AAA 2D Mario bros. maybe rise 20 M  sales



Agente42 said:
siebensus4 said:
In terms of software, Pokemon Gen 8 is their last big bullet left, since Zelda, Mario, Smash and Mario Kart are already available on the system. Of course we can see successors of the titles (except of Smash), but the impact on hardware won't be that much anymore. In 2020 and future, hardware will mainly be sold through price cuts and hardware revisions instead of new software.
Very difficult to predict the peak because of changing circumstances. If the new hardware revisions fly off the shelves like the DSlite, everything is possible the next years.

 Don't released Animal Crossing neither 2d full fledge Mario Bros. 

I don't think we'll get a new Mario Bros on Switch. We've already got a WiiU Port and Mario Maker. Next on the list is 3d Land/World esque game, either port or new. Though I'd prefer Odyssey 2.



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Maybe ... or maybe not. As long as Nintendo don't announce it's plans on new hardware iteration for the Switch and price cuts to the current model making it more accessible, then everything is up in the air.
I mean I'm also a firm believer that they will find lasting strength in even the 2nd iteration of these games during the lifespan of this console since it might showcase the new hardware abilities better than the OG model could.
And it's not like they are out of bullets in terms of big game release, new possible IPs and such. There's a vast array of titles to yet explore in these upcoming years !



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I always thought that the peak is this year. Nintendo is peaking now until Pokemon. After the first months of Pokemon sales, the peak is gone. Nintendo usually peaks earlier and NSW has all the attributes to an early "peaker" device.

There's a chance that after Pokemon, Nintendo will release number 2 of all its first party titles again, then third party will move away from them making next-gen games for the home consoles, then they will get to draughts until next system.



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0D0 said:
There's a chance that after Pokemon, Nintendo will release number 2 of all its first party titles again, then third party will move away from them making next-gen games for the home consoles, then they will get to draughts until next system.

I think what's far more likely is More unique games and series from the handhelds. As for third parties, the Switch won't be as left out as you think.AAA games are becoming fewer and fewer each generation due to how expensive they are to make now. Not to mention, 8th gen consoles will continue to be supported for quite a while after 9th gen since they already have a built-in audience and are still very easy for smaller teams to support. So the Switch will continue to get most of everything that's not AAA.



Soundwave said:

I think sales wise this fiscal year will be the peak.

Breath of the Wild 2 is cool and all but if you're talking sales, like the majority of people who like Zelda own a Switch as BOTW is by far the best selling Zelda game already. 


2020 will probably see a bit of a decline but still solid sales, 2021 will definitely likely show a downtrend in sales.

Zelda averaged 4m the bulk of BOTW's sales are newcomers to the series this is because BOTW's approach is closer to games like GTA where even if you've never followed the franchise it's still easy to jump into and have fun, the fans already have it argument doesn't really work here as BOTW's approach appeals to a much bigger group than Zelda fans.



I think it will be even tbh. Around 19-20 million both years. If I had to give a slight edge, it would be 2019



Soundwave said:
2020's focus also, hate to say it in the gaming world will be the PS5/XB2 launches, they're the new systems, they will get the lion's share of attention. Particularly the PS5 as it is the successor to the market leading platform.

Historically, the release of a console in one brand has absolutely zero impact on sales of a console from another brand. The console market is not a purely zero-sum game, because the sale of a console from one brand does not necessarily entail a lost sale for the competitor. There is overlap. This is especially pertinent in Nintendo's case as they've been making distinctly unconventional consoles since the Wii, so it's not like they're providing the same kind of experiences PS & Xbox offer. Remember the report saying that 70% of Switch owners also owned a PS4 and/or XBO? Even with the Wii, the available evidence suggests that at least half of all Wii owners also had a PS3 and/or 360. People who play on conventional consoles by and large haven't forgotten about Nintendo, and many of them actually want a Nintendo system to complement their PS or Xbox. I doubt that will change come Nov. 2020. The only thing the PS5 and Scarlett will affect are PS4 and XBO sales, as the post-peak decline in sales of a console often accelerate once its successor is released.

As to whether this year or next year is the Switch's peak, I think that will depend on if and when new models and/or a price cut are issued, and if those produce an equal or larger boost to sales than what Pokemon Sword & Shield do this November.



I don't think Switch will peak later then 2019.



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