Quantcast
japan Sales week 21, May 20 - 26 2019, Famitsu

Forums - Sales Discussion - japan Sales week 21, May 20 - 26 2019, Famitsu

Terrible sales all around, hardware and software. It's gonna be a long wait for the Super Mario Maker 2 boost.



Signature goes here!

Around the Network

SMM2 boost...Still something has changed, The Switch will never reach 100 millions. Without new big release, the sales are collapsing already, which means that the Switch has started its decline and 2019 will be the peak year, not 2020. Ofcourse there will be enough huge sales booster between SMM2 and Christmas to get strong numbers for this year, but I know now when I have to resell my shares.



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
WR on TGM alternative mode : Fastest ITEM S9 rank ( <-- Just got massacred by the 2nd most powerfull player in the world )
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

Amnesia said:

SMM2 boost...Still something has changed, The Switch will never reach 100 millions. Without new big release, the sales are collapsing already, which means that the Switch has started its decline and 2019 will be the peak year, not 2020. Ofcourse there will be enough huge sales booster between SMM2 and Christmas to get strong numbers for this year, but I know now when I have to resell my shares.

Always so quick to jump off the ship, are ya ?



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

Mar1217 said:
Amnesia said:

SMM2 boost...Still something has changed, The Switch will never reach 100 millions. Without new big release, the sales are collapsing already, which means that the Switch has started its decline and 2019 will be the peak year, not 2020. Ofcourse there will be enough huge sales booster between SMM2 and Christmas to get strong numbers for this year, but I know now when I have to resell my shares.

Always so quick to jump off the ship, are ya ?

I know right...  Animal Crossing and mainline Pokemon still not even released.  Those are bigger system sellers in Japan than Smash.



Mar1217 said:
Amnesia said:

SMM2 boost...Still something has changed, The Switch will never reach 100 millions. Without new big release, the sales are collapsing already, which means that the Switch has started its decline and 2019 will be the peak year, not 2020. Ofcourse there will be enough huge sales booster between SMM2 and Christmas to get strong numbers for this year, but I know now when I have to resell my shares.

Always so quick to jump off the ship, are ya ?

Life is already hard and shitty enough like that...I have invested a good % of my money into Nintendo and I will make a benefit from dividends and reselling it at the right time (Jan-Feb 2020). I won't wait and lose profit just to stay loyal into a company who is not doing the best imo (surfing too much on easy paths...)

After months watching this damn stock curve every days, I have reached this conclusion (rule) which seems to work in peacefull stable economical era like now :
As long as there are a few 10+ millions seller on the pipe coming, the share keeps increasing...Which means that if before Jan 2020 Mario Kart Switch has not been announced, I jump off the ship. As soon as they announce a new 10+ millions seller coming, I buy again.



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
WR on TGM alternative mode : Fastest ITEM S9 rank ( <-- Just got massacred by the 2nd most powerfull player in the world )
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

Around the Network
Amnesia said:

SMM2 boost...Still something has changed, The Switch will never reach 100 millions. Without new big release, the sales are collapsing already, which means that the Switch has started its decline and 2019 will be the peak year, not 2020. Ofcourse there will be enough huge sales booster between SMM2 and Christmas to get strong numbers for this year, but I know now when I have to resell my shares.

This is actually the calm before the storm.  Not only is Nintendo about to release several big games (starting with MM2), but the Japanese third party companies have barely begun to release Switch games.  Many more are coming including Dragon Quest XI S this year.

Add onto this that there will likely be some sort of cheaper model releasing this year, and it's clear that Switch sales are ready to explode.  In Japan, especially, this is going to be their primary gaming machine at home or on the go for the next several years.  



Amnesia said:

Life is already hard and shitty enough like that...I have invested a good % of my money into Nintendo and I will make a benefit from dividends and reselling it at the right time (Jan-Feb 2020). I won't wait and lose profit just to stay loyal into a company who is not doing the best imo (surfing too much on easy paths...)

After months watching this damn stock curve every days, I have reached this conclusion (rule) which seems to work in peacefull stable economical era like now :
As long as there are a few 10+ millions seller on the pipe coming, the share keeps increasing...Which means that if before Jan 2020 Mario Kart Switch has not been announced, I jump off the ship. As soon as they announce a new 10+ millions seller coming, I buy again.

That's not how the stock market works. Share prices rise when a company performs above average market expectations for the company, so even buying stock of companies who lose money can be a good idea when they lose less money than expected.

Buying Nintendo shares before the launch of Switch was a good idea because market analysts were cautious about the stock, so the success of Switch led to a dramatic rise in value. You bought your shares early this year when it was already clear that Switch is a success, so the major driving forces for Nintendo's stock price now are not 10m+ sellers, because those things are already expected to happen. What has bumped the share price recently is the speculation regarding new Switch models that can help Nintendo to outperform their Switch hardware and software forecasts as well as Mario Kart On Tour which has the potential to boost Nintendo's smartphone business substantially.

The stock market is first and foremost about what other people will think about any given company. If you put your money into a company that you deem to be widely underestimated at the time you buy shares, then you can make tremendous returns. But if you buy shares of a company that everyone expects to do well already, then even strong revenue and profit numbers of that company will lead to only modest gains.

Lastly, the typical slump in May in the Japanese market is no indicator whatsoever that Switch won't reach 100m worldwide in its lifetime.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

RolStoppable said:
Amnesia said:

Life is already hard and shitty enough like that...I have invested a good % of my money into Nintendo and I will make a benefit from dividends and reselling it at the right time (Jan-Feb 2020). I won't wait and lose profit just to stay loyal into a company who is not doing the best imo (surfing too much on easy paths...)

After months watching this damn stock curve every days, I have reached this conclusion (rule) which seems to work in peacefull stable economical era like now :
As long as there are a few 10+ millions seller on the pipe coming, the share keeps increasing...Which means that if before Jan 2020 Mario Kart Switch has not been announced, I jump off the ship. As soon as they announce a new 10+ millions seller coming, I buy again.

That's not how the stock market works. Share prices rise when a company performs above average market expectations for the company, so even buying stock of companies who lose money can be a good idea when they lose less money than expected.

Buying Nintendo shares before the launch of Switch was a good idea because market analysts were cautious about the stock, so the success of Switch led to a dramatic rise in value. You bought your shares early this year when it was already clear that Switch is a success, so the major driving forces for Nintendo's stock price now are not 10m+ sellers, because those things are already expected to happen. What has bumped the share price recently is the speculation regarding new Switch models that can help Nintendo to outperform their Switch hardware and software forecasts as well as Mario Kart On Tour which has the potential to boost Nintendo's smartphone business substantially.

The stock market is first and foremost about what other people will think about any given company. If you put your money into a company that you deem to be widely underestimated at the time you buy shares, then you can make tremendous returns. But if you buy shares of a company that everyone expects to do well already, then even strong revenue and profit numbers of that company will lead to only modest gains.

Lastly, the typical slump in May in the Japanese market is no indicator whatsoever that Switch won't reach 100m worldwide in its lifetime.

You seem to talk to me like if I was the non cultured dude who must be teached by someone smarter and more mature like you...So I will contest your first sentence easily by showing this is wrong simply :
16,95 M, lower than an already cut by 15% goal :

Puting on the market 1-2 new switchs variants will surely help, but now what we see after these last 3 weeks, is that the Switch falls to the "PS4 year 5" level of sales in Japan if there is no new releases. How many models we had with the 3DS already ? The 3DS family will end at 77M max.



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
WR on TGM alternative mode : Fastest ITEM S9 rank ( <-- Just got massacred by the 2nd most powerfull player in the world )
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary

Amnesia said:

You seem to talk to me like if I was the non cultured dude who must be teached by someone smarter and more mature like you...So I will contest your first sentence easily by showing this is wrong simply :
16,95 M, lower than an already cut by 15% goal :

Puting on the market 1-2 new switchs variants will surely help, but now what we see after these last 3 weeks, is that the Switch falls to the "PS4 year 5" level of sales in Japan if there is no new releases. How many models we had with the 3DS already ? The 3DS family will end at 77M max.

Nintendo's performance isn't measured by the single metric of hardware shipments. Revenue and profit numbers are more important than that; Nintendo met their revenue forecast and exceeded profits by 10% despite falling short on the hardware forecast by 15%. What you see in March and the first half of April of the chart is that Nintendo's stock was undervalued, so a lot of people decided to buy in for the reasons I mentioned in my previous post. The stock market is about evaluating what other people think about any given company and identifying which companies' stock is undervalued relative to the potential that any given company has.

The PS4 didn't push 25k units per week without new releases. All the numbers for PS4's fifth year are displayed in the original post of this thread. Even during its peak, it was a challenge for the PS4 to consistently hit 25k per week, so you are being overdramatic. May is traditionally the weakest month for sales in Japan, so there's no good reason to react like you did.

When the 3DS finishes with lifetime sales of ~75m with six versions of the console and a full set of price reductions, then what makes you believe that Switch isn't going to pass 100m? Launch-aligned, Switch is outpacing the 3DS by ~4m up till now. Switch had neither a revision or price cut during that period while the 3DS had a steep price cut (10k yen/$80/€80) and a revision. The math isn't as simple as multiplying the Switch's current advantage over the 3DS by 4 to extrapolate its lifetime sales for a lifespan of 9 years like the 3DS will have had; if we did that, Switch would finish with a good 90m. We also have to factor in revisions, price cuts and future software support, and in all those areas Switch has a clear advantage over the 3DS, so the launch-aligned gap between Switch and the 3DS will not only grow, but also accelerate.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

"May is traditionally the weakest month for sales in Japan, so there's no good reason to react like you did."

What I see is that these last 3 weeks, last year the baseline could be maintained at 35000 with nearly nothing coming, this year, we have much more 3rd party games coming and yet it has collasped from 50000 to 26000 in 3 weeks, games like assassin creed and Sonic racing did not prevent at all this decline.



Current PB on Secret of Mana remake : 2h27 (2nd)
Strongest worldwide achievement on TGM : 1st European S13 rank
WR on TGM alternative mode : Fastest ITEM S9 rank ( <-- Just got massacred by the 2nd most powerfull player in the world )
Current PB on Power Ranger (Game Gear) : 10min06 (World Record)

Non-geek activity : ThermalHungary