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haxxiy said:

Greens are huge this year with the under 30 folk. Very understandable, I guess.

Also, the backlash against the hard right seems to finally have curbed their rise for once. They're underperforming polls in a lot of places.

Thank fucking god



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KungKras said:
haxxiy said:

Greens are huge this year with the under 30 folk. Very understandable, I guess.

Also, the backlash against the hard right seems to finally have curbed their rise for once. They're underperforming polls in a lot of places.

Thank fucking god

Liberals + greens will likely be the kingmakers this time around.

The hard right has some staying power, but with 22% between their three groups, their influence will continue to be quite limited.



 

 

 

 

 

haxxiy said:

Greens are huge this year with the under 30 folk. Very understandable, I guess.

Also, the backlash against the hard right seems to finally have curbed their rise for once. They're underperforming polls in a lot of places.

The far-right almost 100% relies on the topic of migration. It has always been that way.

The migration crisis from 2015 is a thing of the past, so the attention of the people is shifting to other problems. I don't believe that backlash against the far-right has worked at all, rather it's that the drastic reduction in migration took the wind out of their sails.



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haxxiy said:

Greens are huge this year with the under 30 folk. Very understandable, I guess.

Also, the backlash against the hard right seems to finally have curbed their rise for once. They're underperforming polls in a lot of places.

I was hoping it to be that way.

RolStoppable said:
haxxiy said:

Greens are huge this year with the under 30 folk. Very understandable, I guess.

Also, the backlash against the hard right seems to finally have curbed their rise for once. They're underperforming polls in a lot of places.

The far-right almost 100% relies on the topic of migration. It has always been that way.

The migration crisis from 2015 is a thing of the past, so the attention of the people is shifting to other problems. I don't believe that backlash against the far-right has worked at all, rather it's that the drastic reduction in migration took the wind out of their sails.

There's another reason: People actually went to vote.

Low turnout always favors the more extreme parties, as their supporters go and vote either way. On a low turnout, that makes a big part of the total votes. However, when the turnout is high, they get overshadowed by the mass of votes to the other parties, making their share of votes pretty small in the end.



Bofferbrauer2 said:

There's another reason: People actually went to vote.

Low turnout always favors the more extreme parties, as their supporters go and vote either way. On a low turnout, that makes a big part of the total votes. However, when the turnout is high, they get overshadowed by the mass of votes to the other parties, making their share of votes pretty small in the end.

That's actually untrue. Most data-points shows that high turnout usually correlates with bad results for governing or big parties. It is explainable: if people are fine with things are going, they aren't seeing a reason to vote, as things can go on as they are. If people want to change things, they go vote. And the party or parties in power are not seen as a beacon of change. This is true for this election, the two biggest blocs european peoples party (EPP, conservatives) and S&D (social democrats) lost massively. Both lost more than 30 seats, they no longer have a majority together.

It is also untrue that extremists have a stable voterbase. If you look at the actual absolute votes they get, it fluctuates a lot. This makes sense too: if your goal is to fight or end democracy it doesn't make too much sense to participate in democratic process.

This doesn't mean that with high turnout each of the smaller parties get to profit in the same way. It strongly depends which topic activates you out of non-voting. Here in germany a strong activating topic was climate change, and what do you see: the greens doubled their result from 10% to over 20%. In other countries you have different topics that activate the people. So the result differs, in some you have wins for the rights, in some for the liberals.



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Mnementh said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

There's another reason: People actually went to vote.

Low turnout always favors the more extreme parties, as their supporters go and vote either way. On a low turnout, that makes a big part of the total votes. However, when the turnout is high, they get overshadowed by the mass of votes to the other parties, making their share of votes pretty small in the end.

That's actually untrue. Most data-points shows that high turnout usually correlates with bad results for governing or big parties. It is explainable: if people are fine with things are going, they aren't seeing a reason to vote, as things can go on as they are. If people want to change things, they go vote. And the party or parties in power are not seen as a beacon of change. This is true for this election, the two biggest blocs european peoples party (EPP, conservatives) and S&D (social democrats) lost massively. Both lost more than 30 seats, they no longer have a majority together.

It is also untrue that extremists have a stable voterbase. If you look at the actual absolute votes they get, it fluctuates a lot. This makes sense too: if your goal is to fight or end democracy it doesn't make too much sense to participate in democratic process.

This doesn't mean that with high turnout each of the smaller parties get to profit in the same way. It strongly depends which topic activates you out of non-voting. Here in germany a strong activating topic was climate change, and what do you see: the greens doubled their result from 10% to over 20%. In other countries you have different topics that activate the people. So the result differs, in some you have wins for the rights, in some for the liberals.

@bolded: That's exactly what I'm talking about. Those who are more in lime of the more extreme partes are generally also wanting more change, hence why theygo to vote. But supporters of the big parties often don't feel that urgency to do anything, so they don't go to vote. This time, much more people did feel they had to vote to change things, especially supporters of liberal and green parties this time around.



Updated OP with current numbers (still preliminary).



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KungKras said:
Voted for the Pirate Party, because I think they are the most likely to reverse EU's disastrous decision on copyright laws on the internet.

I'd say that people overestimate the role of the European parliament. It's basically a "pension fund" for politicians that are offloaded by their country's parties.

And since the UK Brexit nutjobs are leaving in less than half a year, the swing to the right, if one says there was one at all, will be somewhat neutralised.



Results (all preliminary) in some of the bigger countries:

France: The far right wing Rassemblement national won with 23.5% very closely against Macrons liberal party En Marche with 22.5%. Greens are behind with 13%.

Germany: The biggest parties (and currently in power in national german government) of CDU/CSU and SPD lost a lot and are now at 29% and 16%. That actually means that the Greens who doubled their result from 2014 (now 21%) are actually now the second biggest party.

Italy: The right wing Lega Salvini won with 34%. PD follows with 23% and M5S with 16%.

Spain: The social democrats of the PSOE whoc are currently running the government won with 33%. PP (conservatives) had only 20%.

Remember: all numbers are still early.



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drkohler said:
KungKras said:
Voted for the Pirate Party, because I think they are the most likely to reverse EU's disastrous decision on copyright laws on the internet.

I'd say that people overestimate the role of the European parliament. It's basically a "pension fund" for politicians that are offloaded by their country's parties.

And since the UK Brexit nutjobs are leaving in less than half a year, the swing to the right, if one says there was one at all, will be somewhat neutralised.

Well, but the EU actually decided said copyright guideline (which the countries have to adapt into national law now) a few months ago. This was controversial, especially because of effects on the internet.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Directive_on_Copyright_in_the_Digital_Single_Market



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