Thanks for the info. So the Switch has a lot of potential since it's definitely not peaked yet. With well-placed price cuts and the possibility of revisions it may skyrocket and become one of the highest selling consoles ever.
Is it realistic to think it can match the DS? The market is pretty crowded today but for some reason I feel like just upgrading hardware isn't going to be enough going forward and unless PS5 and XBOX whatever are really impressive...
I guess we'll see.
It's going to be a long road to reach DS numbers, but it's possible. The growing length of developing times for games makes it preferable for console manufacturers to extend the length of a generation, so Switch should have more than the six years that the 3DS and DS had before their respective successor launched.
It's unrealistic to expect Switch to match the sales pace of the DS (had three years in a row with almost 30m each), but a longer lifespan than the DS had makes it feasible to finish with similar lifetime sales. The circumstances for a long lifespan are favorable:
1. Switch is the only console Nintendo has to support, something that hasn't been the case since the 1980s. Whereas in the past the teams that worked on Mario Kart 8 Deluxe/ARMS, Splatoon 2 and Super Mario Odyssey would be making their next game for a different console, this time around they are lining up another Switch game, so the probability to sustain high Switch hardware sales increases significantly.
2. The third party support that matters isn't going to go away. The gaming landscape in Japan has seen a change from five consoles (Xbox 360 had relevance despite low sales because Microsoft was throwing money at developers) to only two after Nintendo fused their consoles, Sony exited the handheld market and Microsoft is a non-factor. For most Japanese developers, it's not realistic to plan without Nintendo. In the rest of the world, indie developers greatly appreciate a portable console because their target demographics see increased value in playing indie games on both the TV and anywhere else. A big factor why the DS could sustain high sales for so long was the wealth of third party support it received, even without AAA third party support.
3. There's no company in sight who will challenge Switch head-on. This means Nintendo has no need to rush a successor, because it is highly discouraging for all other companies that even PlayStation joined the graveyard in portable console gaming.