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Will PS5 ever catch up to the Switch in lifetime sales?

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Will PS5 ever catch up to Switch in sales?

Yes, by 2021 4 10.00%
 
Yes, by 2022 1 2.50%
 
Yes, by 2023 2 5.00%
 
Yes by 2024 6 15.00%
 
Yes by 2025 4 10.00%
 
Yes by 2026 5 12.50%
 
Yes by 2027 0 0.00%
 
Yes by 2028 5 12.50%
 
No 13 32.50%
 
Total:40

OP - The thread should be "Do you think Switch will ever catch up to PS4/XB1?"

PS5 is a new gen.
Switch belongs to the current gen.



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The worst Selling PS console sold 87 million units.

So sure.



Most probably will than not. PS5 may sell over 120M, Switch may not reach 100M.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Probably not, but it's not possible to give a definitive answer at this point in time, because we need to know what both Sony and Microsoft have in their hands. Things that we do know:

1. Switch is selling at PS4 pace and has yet to take full advantage of its hybrid nature. Right now its price and size prevent it from harnessing the handheld market that it covers on top of the home console market. There's a good chance that Switch will peak higher than the PS4 while having just as long of a lifecycle.

2. The PS5 won't have it as easy as the PS4. Nintendo is relevant in the market, unlike with the Wii U. Microsoft shouldn't be expected to mess up as badly as with the XB1, so the distribution of PS vs. Xbox sales will probably not be as lopsided as with PS4 vs. XB1. The PS5 has to sell like the PS4 to keep up with Switch though. While not necessarily affecting the PS5 as a whole, two recent events should make people be less bullish about the PS5. For one, the censorship policies, and two, turning the PS1 Classic into a flop despite it taking effort to mess up a product that should have been a surefire hit.

3. On the other side, Microsoft has been making studio acquisitions to bolster their first party lineup. Those are positive actions, so this isn't the same Microsoft that created the XB1. Even if Sony executed the PS5 just as well as the PS4, a better execution of the XB4 than the XB1 would logically result in lower PS5 sales, at the very least in the USA and the UK. It's still more probable that the PS5 will outsell the XB4 globally, but the topic here is if the PS5 can beat Switch.

The most common mistake that people make is that they assume that things will stay as they are from one generation to the next, but changes in leadership and/or strategy are common at companies and shouldn't be ignored. In order to predict the future, it's better to look at what companies are doing in preparation for the next generation, rather than looking at the market performance of the current generation.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

My prediction: Ps5 will sell less than Switch but more than the Switch2. Both Ps5 and Switch 2 combined will have less sold than Switch/PS4.

Ps1 and PS3 sold way less than ps2. GameCube and Wii U sold way less than Wii. It's and every other gen thing. Next gen will be disappointment if history is right.



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It's difficult to say now, but it's more likely to do than not.

Cerebralbore101 said:

Sooooo, Nintendo Switch has been selling like hotcakes in the past two years. PS5 isn't due out until holidays 2020. With Poke'mon, and Animal Crossing set to release this year, Switch sales are about to explode. By the time PS5 comes out the Switch may very well have 60 million units sold worldwide. And sales for Switch just might keep going, and going up until 2024. So my question is this...

Do you think the PS5 will eventually catch up to the Switch in sales? And if so, how long do you think this will take? 

Switch sales are hardly outselling PS4 and it's more likely that Switch is peaking round this year. The following years, Switch will start getting slower. Pokemon may be the end of its peak. Nintendo still rules Japan, but there's not many Nintendo consumers out there to make Switch sell more than 3DS.

VideoGameAccountant said:
The correct answer is we don't know.

That said, it's typical the market leader tends to do significantly worse the following generation. Was true of the PS2 to PS3, Wii and 360 to XBox One and Wii U. You can speculate the reason why but I believe it's because the loser have a better idea of what went wrong where the winners tend to rest on their laurels and make stupid decisions. Sony has had quite a few blunders with cross-play, censorship, their Nintendo Direct thing, and the fact these games are announced years in advance. My expectation is they'll do worse but you really can't tell much without seeing the console and the games.

Even though there's truth to what you say, I don't think any of those things you mentioned would stop Sony to be very successful. Cross-play is more a media bitching than anything else and Sony can fix that if they're not doing it right now. Censorship is a non issue. The few games they censored a bit aren't relevant at all. Their direct thing is just a streaming for enthusiasts and it doesn't change how powerful a release of COD, GTA or FIFA is for Playstation. They could keep doing their direct thing or get rid of it and their demand wouldn't change at all.



My Total Sales prediction for PS4 by the end of 2021: 110m+

When PS4 will hit 100m consoles sold: Before Christmas 2019

There were three ravens sat on a tree / They were as blacke as they might be / The one of them said to his mate, Where shall we our breakfast take?


It's impossible to say with much certainty one way or the other but Sony has a very consistent track record. Unlike anyone else Sony is the only company to have never had a home console failure in terms of sales, so even without knowing anything you can put a fair bit of confidence in their next system based on history, as the ps5 will be a home console after all. Sony has the best track record.

Switch is performing well above the average Nintendo System however, it's already a proven success. PS5 isn't proven, even if history would tell us it probably will be.

PS1: 104.25m, PS2:157.68m, PS3: 87.41m, PS4: (120m?), AVG:117.35m. That's a very strong precedent.

I'd give a 60:40 chance in favour of the PS5 beating the Switch. They're coming from a very strong position to launch their next console so as long as they don't say $599 USD it should do very well.

Switch - ~100m

PS5 - 75m-150m.



Predictions (Made July 2019)

LTD: PS4 - 130m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 52m       2019 : PS4 - 15m, Switch - 18.8m, XBO - 4.8m        2020: Switch - 22m (Peak Year)

Wrong gen son.



RolStoppable said:
Probably not, but it's not possible to give a definitive answer at this point in time, because we need to know what both Sony and Microsoft have in their hands. Things that we do know:

1. Switch is selling at PS4 pace and has yet to take full advantage of its hybrid nature. Right now its price and size prevent it from harnessing the handheld market that it covers on top of the home console market. There's a good chance that Switch will peak higher than the PS4 while having just as long of a lifecycle.

2. The PS5 won't have it as easy as the PS4. Nintendo is relevant in the market, unlike with the Wii U. Microsoft shouldn't be expected to mess up as badly as with the XB1, so the distribution of PS vs. Xbox sales will probably not be as lopsided as with PS4 vs. XB1. The PS5 has to sell like the PS4 to keep up with Switch though. While not necessarily affecting the PS5 as a whole, two recent events should make people be less bullish about the PS5. For one, the censorship policies, and two, turning the PS1 Classic into a flop despite it taking effort to mess up a product that should have been a surefire hit.

3. On the other side, Microsoft has been making studio acquisitions to bolster their first party lineup. Those are positive actions, so this isn't the same Microsoft that created the XB1. Even if Sony executed the PS5 just as well as the PS4, a better execution of the XB4 than the XB1 would logically result in lower PS5 sales, at the very least in the USA and the UK. It's still more probable that the PS5 will outsell the XB4 globally, but the topic here is if the PS5 can beat Switch.

The most common mistake that people make is that they assume that things will stay as they are from one generation to the next, but changes in leadership and/or strategy are common at companies and shouldn't be ignored. In order to predict the future, it's better to look at what companies are doing in preparation for the next generation, rather than looking at the market performance of the current generation.

1) I think this is debatable, but it is quite possible. Talk of the new SKUs to release will definitely shine a light on potential hardware sale momentum.

2) I don't think this is necessarily true. The Switch has proven that it has like little affect on PS4 sales. Censorship policies and the PS1 Classic have had little affect on the PS4. MS getting more consumer friendly has had little affect on the PS4. And Sony is in a better position going into PS5 than they were going from PS3 to PS4.

3) I think Sony having more good selling titles puts them in a better position than MS having all these new studios. UC, Horizon, GoW, Spidey, DG: sequels are going to be big business for Sony.



What even is this thread? We know very, very little of PS5, including crucial things like release date, price, launch lineup, etc.

There is no way anyone could make any sort of argument, for or against this question, in good faith.

It's possible that Sony's hubris causes the PS5 to garner ill will to gamers and its their worst selling console. It's possible that it's a mega success and outsells the PS2. There's no way to argue in any sort of fashion with any sort of foundation that isn't pure (worthless) conjecture.