How many copies will New Horizons sell? | |||
| less than 22 million | 0 | 0% | |
| 22 million | 0 | 0% | |
| 23 million | 0 | 0% | |
| 24 million | 0 | 0% | |
| 25 million | 1 | 9.09% | |
| 26 million | 1 | 9.09% | |
| 27 million | 0 | 0% | |
| 28 million | 1 | 9.09% | |
| 29 million | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ million | 8 | 72.73% | |
| Total: | 11 | ||
| RingoGaSuki said: 20m+. Animal Crossing is a juggernaut now, people are starving for a new game, it's been six years since the last entry at this point. This is going to be a huge seller with never-ending legs for Switch, a system-seller the likes of Smash and Pokemon. Mark my words. |
No way a $60 Animal Crossing game is doing over 15M.
Lryu222 said:
No way a $60 Animal Crossing game is doing over 15M. |
I don't think the $60 is going to impact anyone. For starters, $60 isn't valued at what it was when games started being sold for that amount due to inflation.
Let's compare the evergreen 3ds games to the evergreen Switch ones using VGC numbers currently in the database when you look each of these games up (this will save me time from having to find articles with official numbers):
3ds Switch
Super Mario 3d Land - 11.56 million (15.5% attach ratio) Super Mario Odyssey - 11.71 million (34% attach ratio)
Mario Kart 7 - 15.49 million (20.5% attach ratio) Mario Kart 8 delux - 13.05 million (38% attach ratio)
Animal Crossing New Leaf - 10.9 million (14.6% attach ratio) Animal Crossing Switch (29%???)
I think, based on this, that Animal Crossing Switch will at least double in attachment ratio what it sold on 3ds based on how Odyssey and Kart 8 delux performed. Honestly, the ceiling is higher because it won't be a re-release like 8 delux was to 8 (plenty of people that owned 8 on Wii U, which did really well itself, did not buy 8 delux, yet it still has done amazingly). Switch attachment rates are just off the charts, and that won't change with New Leaf. If we double the attachment rate conservatively to 29% what the Switch install base is right now, that puts Animal Crossing Switch sales at 9.8 million, but if we project the Switch hardware to be at least double what it currently is when its all said and done, I think Animal Crossing Switch will shatter 15 million and will easily reach 20 million sales based on this data. The question should be whether or not it hits 25 million, and of that I'm more skeptical.
Dulfite said:
I don't think the $60 is going to impact anyone. For starters, $60 isn't valued at what it was when games started being sold for that amount due to inflation. Let's compare the evergreen 3ds games to the evergreen Switch ones using VGC numbers currently in the database when you look each of these games up (this will save me time from having to find articles with official numbers): 3ds Switch Super Mario 3d Land - 11.56 million (15.5% attach ratio) Super Mario Odyssey - 11.71 million (34% attach ratio) Animal Crossing New Leaf - 10.9 million (14.6% attach ratio) Animal Crossing Switch (29%???) I think, based on this, that Animal Crossing Switch will at least double in attachment ratio what it sold on 3ds based on how Odyssey and Kart 8 delux performed. Honestly, the ceiling is higher because it won't be a re-release like 8 delux was to 8 (plenty of people that owned 8 on Wii U, which did really well itself, did not buy 8 delux, yet it still has done amazingly). Switch attachment rates are just off the charts, and that won't change with New Leaf. If we double the attachment rate conservatively to 29% what the Switch install base is right now, that puts Animal Crossing Switch sales at 9.8 million, but if we project the Switch hardware to be at least double what it currently is when its all said and done, I think Animal Crossing Switch will shatter 15 million and will easily reach 20 million sales based on this data. The question should be whether or not it hits 25 million, and of that I'm more skeptical. |
That makes sense. But it is still hard to believe an Animal Crossing game could do Smash numbers in the long run.
RolStoppable said:
That's a fundamentally flawed method to analyse and predict sales. Attach rate is a terrible metric. Because Switch will sell more than 100m units based on historical comparisons plus circumstances unique to Switch, your conservative attach rate puts Animal Crossing already above 30m copies. Attach rates go down as the total number of consoles sold grows, that's why this sort of analysis doesn't work. Super Mario 3D Land and Mario Kart 7 started out at above 30% for their attach rate, then that value slowly decreased over time to what it is now. What is clear is that Switch hardware sales won't put an artificial ceiling on the potential of Animal Crossing sales - the Wii U is an example of a console that limited software sales potential and a good example of that is Mario Kart 8. What is also clear is that Animal Crossing won't cost $60 throughout its entire life, so the reasoning of Lryu222 also has a fundamental flaw - Nintendo Selects at a notably cheaper price have been a common thing on Nintendo consoles and Animal Crossing for Switch will launch during the first half of the console's life, so it has years to sell. A worthwhile basis for a prediction of Animal Crossing sales is that games on Switch are selling faster than on the 3DS and in some cases have already exceeded the lifetime sales of their 3DS counterparts - the series that have yet to do so are usually on track to pull it off, such as Mario Kart 8 Deluxe. The current uncertainty is how good of a sequel the upcoming Animal Crossing game will be, but unless Nintendo messes it up, it should at the very least sell more copies than New Leaf because that's the trend of Switch software sales. I don't disagree with your conclusion that the game should be able to sell more than 15m copies, but the way you arrived there is heavily flawed. |
I'm fully aware the attach rate will go down, but I'm sorry I didn't include that assumption on my part in my writing. Regardless, I think it is reasonable to assume it will hit at least 20 million based on what I suspect the attach rate will be in the end (at least the 15-20%).
| Lryu222 said: That makes sense. But it is still hard to believe an Animal Crossing game could do Smash numbers in the long run. |
AC has been doing Smash numbers since the DS it even outsold all prior Smash games quite soundly back then it took Brawl on the Wii for the series to catch back up again. Even if we look at AC top seller New Leaf it outsold the 3DS version of Smash quite comfortably (by 3m) it's only because of the WiiU version that S4 (essentially a multiplatform release) sold more than AC: New Leaf, AC can very much outsell Smash as the same way Pokemon has it's own subculture AC does as well and it's growing.
Wyrdness said:
AC has been doing Smash numbers since the DS it even outsold all prior Smash games quite soundly back then it took Brawl on the Wii for the series to catch back up again. Even if we look at AC top seller New Leaf it outsold the 3DS version of Smash quite comfortably (by 3m) it's only because of the WiiU version that S4 (essentially a multiplatform release) sold more than AC: New Leaf, AC can very much outsell Smash as the same way Pokemon has it's own subculture AC does as well and it's growing. |
Then on being a system seller, AC has a huge, majority female fan base. Just anecdotally, I know roughly ten women who still play New Leaf on their 3DS and are waiting for AC to pick up a Switch. It's going to be huge
Last edited by RingoGaSuki - on 09 May 2019
15 million is a given to me. I voted for 19 million plus, because I think that's likely. We haven't had mainline Animal Crossing game in 6 years (about 7 taking the Japanese release of New Leaf into account). People are hungry for a new Animal Crossing game.
I really don't want this game to play it safe. We've waited far too long for that to happen. I really wanted a September release or earlier. At this point, November or December seems like the release. I wouldn't even be surprised if it got delayed into Q1 2020. Please no!
I want Animal Crossing to experiment with towns being a different biome. A hot desert, tropical jungle, classic forest, cold desert (arctic), mountains, grasslands, etc. And with each of those, certain species would be more likely to be villagers. So you would be most likely to have a penguin villager in the arctic.
For all I want in this game, I don't want the scale to be too huge. I don't need more than 15 villagers, farming, a big city, etc. Also, could we finally get split-screen local multiplayer? A fellow player from my town or another town should be able to share a TV with me. Imagine co-op towns, or local visits.
Lifetime Sales Predictions
Switch: 151 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million)
PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 57 million (was 60 million, then 67 million)
PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)
3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)
"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima
CaptainExplosion said:
How about opening something else? *sticks an axe in your face* |
Hey now! No axes in the face unless you are playing Animal Crossing then you only get the bloop sound of it bouncing off someones head.
| Wman1996 said: 15 million is a given to me. I voted for 19 million plus, because I think that's likely. We haven't had mainline Animal Crossing game in 6 years (about 7 taking the Japanese release of New Leaf into account). People are hungry for a new Animal Crossing game. I really don't want this game to play it safe. We've waited far too long for that to happen. I really wanted a September release or earlier. At this point, November or December seems like the release. I wouldn't even be surprised if it got delayed into Q1 2020. Please no! I want Animal Crossing to experiment with towns being a different biome. A hot desert, tropical jungle, classic forest, cold desert (arctic), mountains, grasslands, etc. And with each of those, certain species would be more likely to be villagers. So you would be most likely to have a penguin villager in the arctic. For all I want in this game, I don't want the scale to be too huge. I don't need more than 15 villagers, farming, a big city, etc. Also, could we finally get split-screen local multiplayer? A fellow player from my town or another town should be able to share a TV with me. Imagine co-op towns, or local visits. |
I want the city area to have a sense of progress too, growing as you use it more. Could have villagers that aren't currently in your town come visit and have a chance to meet/influence them in moving to your town. I think it would make the world more alive
I predict it will sell tremendously. Almost certainly one MILLION copies!
I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.
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