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Can Avengers: Endgame take the #1 spot beating Avatar?

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Will Avengers:Endgame beat Avatar?

Yes 62 80.52%
 
No 15 19.48%
 
Total:77
haxxiy said:
flashfire926 said:

Actually that couldn't be much further from the truth.

Just a few movies that were #1 at their time:

- Jaws

- E.T

- Jurrasic Park

- Titanic 

- Avatar

It's always the brand-new IP's that hold the record, because it's something brand new and fresh that has novelty.

With a 22 movie series, it's way harder to hold interest for years before people stop watching. There has already been three avengers films before this one, including one that came out just one year ago.

It's way harder when it comes to sequels. Look at your own example, Star Wars. Despite The Empire Strikes Back holding the most critical acclaim and fan following, it's couldn't gross as much as the first Star Wars. Then Return of the Jedi went on to do even less than that.

Did you see the other posts? Gone With the Wind was first and it still is. Only James Cameron and the first Star Wars came close.

ESB made more money than ANH on their respective first runs. But ANH got tons of re-releases and lingered in theaters for many years, specially before its sequel came out, while ESB didn't. It was a different time, with a different kind of movie-going culture. One that had all but waned by the early to mid 80s. Some blame it in VHS and cable TV, but it happened before VHS was really popular.

And you seem to presume there is a single audience block interested in all Marvel movies who has stuck with it from the beginning. But these 22 movies have wildly different stories, characters and box office incomes. And a very thin plot thread binding them all together (which often doesn't appear until after the credits!). The crossover events, and specially the two Avenger Thanos movies, are just where they managed to gather all these disparaging audiences together. It makes sense, considering these movies could end with the death or their favorite characters.

You would have a point, there, if these movies were called Avengers 1 to 22.

Well, Gone With the Wind is only first when adjusted for inflation (which is not the proper ranking), in domestic (US) only. At that time television sets werent a real thing, you HAD to go to local theatre/drive-in to see it, not just skip so you can binge it later on netflix. No VCR, no DVD, no nothing. 

Still my point stands, before Endgame it was always original movies that held that #1 spot

And there is a HUGE overlap between the audience of the movies. Everyone now knows what "MCU" means, and is effectively treated as a franchise by a huge audience now.



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flashfire926 said:
haxxiy said:

Well, Gone With the Wind is only first when adjusted for inflation (which is not the proper ranking), in domestic (US) only. At that time television sets werent a real thing, you HAD to go to local theatre/drive-in to see it, not just skip so you can binge it later on netflix. No VCR, no DVD, no nothing. 

Still my point stands, before Endgame it was always original movies that held that #1 spot

And there is a HUGE overlap between the audience of the movies. Everyone now knows what "MCU" means, and is effectively treated as a franchise by a huge audience now.

I think you're really extrapolating from the 15-24 year-old hardcore MCU universe fanbase to all the casual movie goers out there. Most people can't tell the difference between Marvel and DC and would think Tony Stark is Batman's real name, or something.

Yes, no TV sets or VCR. That was pretty much the point I was making when I mentioned Star Wars. But... median household incomes were less than half of what they are right now in the developed world. Less free time (more industrial and agrarian jobs), less access to information and advertising. And world population and income out of the first world countries... proportionally even lower.

Even not taking into account all of that, what does that point would prove? Does it exculpate today's movie industry, or elevate its achievements for some reason? If anything, it only points out the movie industry never adapted and recovered its former stature.

Not sure what point you're trying to make talking adjusted by inflation. The meaningless one is the more correct, then, just because you like it more? Say, if there's eventually a short period of very high inflation, and a generic Michael Bay movie takes the top spot, even though it would have grossed less than half a billion if it released today, woud you say "Aha! New franchise to the top again!"

Actually, adjusting for inflation is actually kind to today's movies. To gross $3 billion worldwide today probably wouldn't even break the top 20 or top 15 in terms of tickets sold.



 

 

 

 

 

Well, going by this week´s numbers, it looks like it is not gonna be able to beat Avatar in the end.



chakkra said:

Well, going by this week´s numbers, it looks like it is not gonna be able to beat Avatar in the end.

Lmao dude it's gonna beat Avatar. The question is will it get to 3 billion. I don't think it will but it will be close. Passing Avatar is a foregone conclusion though so I don't know where you got your numbers.



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alternine said:
chakkra said:

Well, going by this week´s numbers, it looks like it is not gonna be able to beat Avatar in the end.

Lmao dude it's gonna beat Avatar. The question is will it get to 3 billion. I don't think it will but it will be close. Passing Avatar is a foregone conclusion though so I don't know where you got your numbers.

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alternine said:
chakkra said:

Well, going by this week´s numbers, it looks like it is not gonna be able to beat Avatar in the end.

Lmao dude it's gonna beat Avatar. The question is will it get to 3 billion. I don't think it will but it will be close. Passing Avatar is a foregone conclusion though so I don't know where you got your numbers.

Well, math is not really my forté but...

The movie needs $299m more to catch up with Avatar. It made $296m this last week Worldwide, which was a 70% drop from previous week.
Now, if we assume a 50% drop every week for its remaining time on theaters (and I am being REALLY generous with this drop) it would need 10 more weeks to catch up to Avatar.

So, I think it is possible for it to beat Avatar, but I'm finding that to be really (and I mean REALLY) hard.  Now, like I said, math is not really my thing so if you have better projections I would love to hear it.



You mean to tell me my NO prediction might actually come true? lol



chakkra said:
alternine said:

Lmao dude it's gonna beat Avatar. The question is will it get to 3 billion. I don't think it will but it will be close. Passing Avatar is a foregone conclusion though so I don't know where you got your numbers.

Well, math is not really my forté but...

The movie needs $299m more to catch up with Avatar. It made $296m this last week Worldwide, which was a 70% drop from previous week.
Now, if we assume a 50% drop every week for its remaining time on theaters (and I am being REALLY generous with this drop) it would need 10 more weeks to catch up to Avatar.

So, I think it is possible for it to beat Avatar, but I'm finding that to be really (and I mean REALLY) hard.  Now, like I said, math is not really my thing so if you have better projections I would love to hear it.

Yeah, this. It's hardly looking like a foregone conclusion at this point.



alternine said:
chakkra said:

Well, going by this week´s numbers, it looks like it is not gonna be able to beat Avatar in the end.

Lmao dude it's gonna beat Avatar. The question is will it get to 3 billion. I don't think it will but it will be close. Passing Avatar is a foregone conclusion though so I don't know where you got your numbers.

3 billion definitely isn't happening anymore.  

Movie is very front loaded.  

In the US, it is down to doing IW numbers.  Which means it can expect another $126m probably, so safe estimate is $854m total.

It has to make $159m elsewhere.  It's also going to be a lot more frontloaded than IW was, especially because IW just launched in China during it's 3rd weekend.  

Beating Avatar will probably happen, but it's not the guarantee that it was when the movie came out.  It's going to be a bit of a crawl.  



My wife and I went to an IMAX showing last night (we had already seen a standard showing on premiere night Thursday 4/25). The auditorium was pretty full for a Tuesday night, and I was impressed with how lively the crowd was for a movie that has been out past its 3rd weekend now. Not obnoxious/rude lively, but all the gasps/cheering that are part of the movie going experience you would expect from an opening weekend.

Spoiler!
When Tony Stark died, I could hear a woman in the back of the theater openly weeping.

The film is past 2.5 billion already in 18 days.  I think that even for a severely front loaded film, it still has a good chance to pass Avatar.  I hope it happens, because this was a great film (slow build in the first hour, but then really picks up and doesn't let up from there).  I've seen Avatar and didn't get drawn into the hype around it whatsoever.