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Forums - Movies & TV - Can Avengers: Endgame take the #1 spot beating Avatar? ...It just did !!!!

 

Will Avengers:Endgame beat Avatar?

Yes 68 80.00%
 
No 17 20.00%
 
Total:85
NightlyPoe said:
Chris Hu said:

With it no longer playing in China there is no chance it will earn another $120 million internationally slightly more then $60 million is more realistic another $50 million domestic is very doable though.  So it will probably pass Avatar but just barely and not anytime soon.  I'm guessing some time in late July or early August when its very close to finishing its theatrical run world wide. 

Ah, didn't see that it got pulled from China.  That does indeed lop off a good chunk of its earnings potential.  Guess a month was all the 3rd biggest movie ever in that country could expect.

That market is so weird.

Wolf Warrior 2 and The Wandering Earth were bigger movies in China, and also cut short. I guess it's just their policy to make way for the new, foreign or not.

As a side comment, either way, I'll note how the Chinese market is massive nowadays and ever increasing. With their GDP growth + Renminbi appreciation + inflation, it's likely the average Chinese blockbuster by 2030 should gross US$1.2 - 1.5 billion in China alone.



 

 

 

 

 

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haxxiy said:
NightlyPoe said:

Ah, didn't see that it got pulled from China.  That does indeed lop off a good chunk of its earnings potential.  Guess a month was all the 3rd biggest movie ever in that country could expect.

That market is so weird.

Wolf Warrior 2 and The Wandering Earth were bigger movies in China, and also cut short. I guess it's just their policy to make way for the new, foreign or not.

As a side comment, either way, I'll note how the Chinese market is massive nowadays and ever increasing. With their GDP growth + Renminbi appreciation + inflation, it's likely the average Chinese blockbuster by 2030 should gross US$1.2 - 1.5 billion in China alone.

I'm guessing a lot of movie theaters in China don't have a lot of screens that is why you don't see movies having very long runs there once a movie is no longer that profitable they rather replace it with something new. 



Currently:
Avatar: $2.788 Billion
Avengers Endgame: $2.713 Billion

Endgame got another +$25m from last week, needs another $75m to go.

Hoping that Avengers can at least stay in theatre for the whole summer which should hopefully beat Avatar by then. Crazy how times change where Avatar has been in theaters for 34 weeks while Avengers has only been out for about 5 weeks and feels like it wont stay in theater anywhere near as long as Avatar did.



V-r0cK said:
Currently:
Avatar: $2.788 Billion
Avengers Endgame: $2.713 Billion

Endgame got another +$25m from last week, needs another $75m to go.

Hoping that Avengers can at least stay in theatre for the whole summer which should hopefully beat Avatar by then. Crazy how times change where Avatar has been in theaters for 34 weeks while Avengers has only been out for about 5 weeks and feels like it wont stay in theater anywhere near as long as Avatar did.

Avatar was a slow burn movie. It only opened up with $77M it's opening weekend. Which isn't bad, but seemed abysmal considering the budget of $240M, and the fact that most movies drop 40%-50% in their 2nd weekend. However, its drops we're incredibly small the following weeks, keeping it ~$70M for three weekends in a row.



Yeah, looks like it is not gonna make it without a re-release.



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Avatar was doing some $200 million WW in its sixth week versus what will likely be less than $25 million for Endgame, so keep that on mind when thinking the latter is being cut short. A movie doesn't remain in the theaters if there's no one to watch it.

Titanic was even more a slow burner, specially if you look at ticket attendance, so I guess launches were never Cameron's strong point. I wonder if it'll change with that hefty Disney marketing. Remembering always that, MCU vs Star Wars vs Avatar fanbase disputes aside, it's Mickey Mouse who'll get the money at the end of the day.



 

 

 

 

 

mZuzek said:
haxxiy said:


Of course, it's also important to keep in mind that marketing plays a large role in how front-loaded movies are or aren't. Every film is more likely to be front-loaded nowadays than they were 10 or 20 or 30 years ago, because the information generally gets to more people and thus more people go see them early. It's not the only factor, obviously, anticipation plays a large role in this too and that's definitely the case for Endgame, but I just thought it was worth pointing out and it's probably the main reason everything, not just movies, has a tendency to get sequels these days, as those are pretty easy to get people hyped for - whereas in earlier decades, word of mouth used to be more of a factor than it is now.

True. But even nowadays I wouldn't expect blockbuster movies to do close to 45% of their total gross in their first weekend.

As you mention, Endgame had dozens of reasons to behave in the BO like it did, and I think it'll be a while before we see anything like it again (or Avatar...).



 

 

 

 

 

64M to go, will be tough but it's still possible.

Beatin Star Wars VII in the US however will not be possible anymore - daily figures have dropped below those of the previous Avengers movies.



According to Forbes, it might not happen:https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2019/06/03/avengers-endgame-avatar-star-wars-force-awakens-james-cameron-disney-box-office/#316cb6ba879a

Looks like it lost steam just shy of its goal.

In slightly unrelated news, I am astounded by how much Avatar money made and how little pop cultural impact it had. The only time people ever speak of it is for sales numbers. It was truly just a graphics hype. I don't expect its sequels to come close to its numbers.



It's a lock to finish below Avatar now, the holds just aren't there for it to perform over. It will happen with an eventual re-release.