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Predict how much Fire Emblem:Three Houses will ship in it's first quarter?

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How big will be first quarter shipments?

< 400K 0 $0.00 0.00%
 
400K-600K 0 $0.00 0.00%
 
600K-800K 0 $0.00 0.00%
 
800K-1.0M 0 $0.00 0.00%
 
1.0M-1.2M 3 $900.00 12.50%
 
1.2M-1.4M 2 $120.00 8.33%
 
1.4M-1.6M 5 $581.00 20.83%
 
1.6M-1.8M 2 $350.00 8.33%
 
1.8M-2.0M 2 $105.00 8.33%
 
> 2.0M 10 $2,982.10 41.67%
 
 
Totals: 24 $5,038.10  
Game closed: 07/25/2019

OK, with the new feature at hand, let's do something useful with it. Let's predict how much Fire Emblem: Three Houses will ship in it's first quarter. I would choose first week, but sadly we have no longer any sales tracking of games, so we have to rely on shipment information by Nintendo. So hopefully Nintendo will include shipments of the title in the report of Q2 of financial year 2019/20 (Q2 will covering July to September). As the title releases July 26th this will mean the game is more than two month on sale in this time. As comparison... it seems looking at first week sales that if Fire Emblem: Awakening had a worldwide release on the same time, it should have sold more than 500K in it's first week.

So what do you think Three Houses will ship (Nintendo includes digital sales with these numbers) in it's first quarter?



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my greatest games: 2017, 2018

Predictions: Switch / Switch vs. XB1 in the US / Three Houses first quarter

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3 whole months, FE should be able to top 2 million imo



FE3H is tracking favorably in Japan, and I'm sure not just there. Considering the habit of Switch games of selling record numbers for the franchise, I'd say it would be foolish to think it would sell less than 1.3M WW in it's launch quarter, especially since it has almost an entire quarter for the sales.

I'm optimistic and say it could be shipped over 2M copies WW. After all, this is the first one to ship WW at the same time, so we'll see how well the franchise really sells now.



MasonADC said:
3 whole months, FE should be able to top 2 million imo
Bofferbrauer2 said:
FE3H is tracking favorably in Japan, and I'm sure not just there. Considering the habit of Switch games of selling record numbers for the franchise, I'd say it would be foolish to think it would sell less than 1.3M WW in it's launch quarter, especially since it has almost an entire quarter for the sales.

I'm optimistic and say it could be shipped over 2M copies WW. After all, this is the first one to ship WW at the same time, so we'll see how well the franchise really sells now.

Wow, as Awakening shipped just above 2M in it's lifetime I thought I was generous with expanding the options up to two million, but the first two answers say they expect more.

Last edited by Mnementh - on 05 May 2019

3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018

Predictions: Switch / Switch vs. XB1 in the US / Three Houses first quarter

Mnementh said:
MasonADC said:
3 whole months, FE should be able to top 2 million imo
Bofferbrauer2 said:
FE3H is tracking favorably in Japan, and I'm sure not just there. Considering the habit of Switch games of selling record numbers for the franchise, I'd say it would be foolish to think it would sell less than 1.3M WW in it's launch quarter, especially since it has almost an entire quarter for the sales.

I'm optimistic and say it could be shipped over 2M copies WW. After all, this is the first one to ship WW at the same time, so we'll see how well the franchise really sells now.

Wow, as Awakening shipped just above 2M in it's lifetime I thought I was generous with expanding the options up to two million, but the first two answers say they expect more.

I expect more than 1.3M. I just want to be positively surprised and hope for over 2M



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Maybe around 1.5 million in it's first quarter and 2.5 million lifetime.



Looks like I'm not as optimistic as you guys, I said only 1 to 1.2. I choose those since I think it'll probably do similar to xenoblade 2.



     

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cycycychris said:
Looks like I'm not as optimistic as you guys, I said only 1 to 1.2. I choose those since I think it'll probably do similar to xenoblade 2.

So worse than the last two FE games? I don’t see that being possible. Xenoblade only had a month to sell, while FE has a little more than 2. 



I said it was going to ship about 1.4M-1.6M copies. A good start for the series of course, just not expecting the high of popularity some of you might think it'll reach. Over 2M lifetime is completly fair though.



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MasonADC said:
cycycychris said:
Looks like I'm not as optimistic as you guys, I said only 1 to 1.2. I choose those since I think it'll probably do similar to xenoblade 2.

So worse than the last two FE games? I don’t see that being possible. Xenoblade only had a month to sell, while FE has a little more than 2. 

Xenoblade 2 also had Christmas. Last 2 fe games have also had more than 1 version to inflate sales.



     

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