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Nintendo FY2018 results, Switch 34.74M, Software 187.52M

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo FY2018 results, Switch 34.74M, Software 187.52M

Soundwave said:

And Wii still had Zelda: Skyward Sword, Mario Galaxy 2, Wii Party, Xenoblade, and many other big titles in the 2nd half of its life cycle ... same thing with 3DS, the thing is you run into diminishing returns by about year 4 with most Nintendo systems because the fan base for those games in large part already has the system. 

3DS sold 7.27 million shipments the fiscal year Sun/Moon arrived, that's really not a monster boost and that was more likely due to Pokemon Go being such a phenomenon on mobile to boot. 

Wii sold 100m not really a good counter argument especially as Wii's 4th year was one it's best for releases, Tatsunoko vs Capcom, NMH2, SMG2, MM10, Red Steel 2, MH Tri, Sin and Punishment 3, Guitar Hero, Epic Yarn, Goldeneye, DKCR etc... The Wii had come from 3 prior insanely good years for sales so it's a given it was going to slow down it was in something like the 70m region heading for 80m and even with sales slowing down it was still outselling the competition.

You're arguing that because a series is already present it can't push sales Sun and Moon being the only major release for that quarter moving 7.27m debunks this as under what you're saying Pokemon should not have had any impact even with PGO because the fans should already be on board from X/Y fact is it doesn't work that way.



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Random_Matt said:
Soundwave said:
Great software sales but hardware is a bit soft. It's tough to sell 20+ mill a year if you're relying on a narrow catalog of really 1st party games to sell to everyone, that's the downside of not having the type of 3rd party support Sony/MS enjoy (or even something half way close).

And it all disappears come 2020.

At that point they would just have more 3rd party exclusives until the Switch 2 drops less than 2 years later, at the end of Nintendo's typical 5 year cycle.  Either way  there is a lot of good stuff to come from 3rd parties on Switch after 2020.



Nintendo Switch Friend Code: SW-5643-2927-1984

Shiken said:
Random_Matt said:

And it all disappears come 2020.

At that point they would just have more 3rd party exclusives until the Switch 2 drops less than 2 years later, at the end of Nintendo's typical 5 year cycle.  Either way  there is a lot of good stuff to come from 3rd parties on Switch after 2020.

Yeah, the Switch already gets very little from 3rd parties (especially western 3rd parties) in-terms of new games to begin with so I don't see how the PS5/XB2 are going to kill its momentum.  If they can't get major 3rd party multiplats, Nintendo will probably continue to solve that problem by moneyhatting games and leveraging their IPs in order to get major software support from 3rd parties like with Mario + Rabbids, Hyrule Warriors or #FE.  Luckily, the Switch will have a large, active install-base and developing games for it will be significantly cheaper compared to the PS5/XB2, so I can see a lot of major publishers creating games with the Switch included, or for the Switch exclusively, to offset the risk in developing costly, time-intensive AAA PS5/XB2 games.



Odyssey now the best selling 3D Mario game, BOTW now over 14 million including Wii U. (So much for all the "it'll never pass 10m cos no Zelda ever has" talk back in 2017)

Anyone know Octopath's JP sales, so we can work out its total?

Also, c'mon Splatoon 2, hang in there, the 10 million mark is just 1.3m away, you can do it! 



Those 20M were never happening.
Very good sales, tho, on par with the PS4.
Software ratio is always lesser for handhelds, so no surprises here.
Switch is doing very well, a LOT better than I expected before release.
Congrats Nintendo.



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Wyrdness said:
Soundwave said:

And Wii still had Zelda: Skyward Sword, Mario Galaxy 2, Wii Party, Xenoblade, and many other big titles in the 2nd half of its life cycle ... same thing with 3DS, the thing is you run into diminishing returns by about year 4 with most Nintendo systems because the fan base for those games in large part already has the system. 

3DS sold 7.27 million shipments the fiscal year Sun/Moon arrived, that's really not a monster boost and that was more likely due to Pokemon Go being such a phenomenon on mobile to boot. 

Wii sold 100m not really a good counter argument especially as Wii's 4th year was one it's best for releases, Tatsunoko vs Capcom, NMH2, SMG2, MM10, Red Steel 2, MH Tri, Sin and Punishment 3, Guitar Hero, Epic Yarn, Goldeneye, DKCR etc... The Wii had come from 3 prior insanely good years for sales so it's a given it was going to slow down it was in something like the 70m region heading for 80m and even with sales slowing down it was still outselling the competition.

You're arguing that because a series is already present it can't push sales Sun and Moon being the only major release for that quarter moving 7.27m debunks this as under what you're saying Pokemon should not have had any impact even with PGO because the fans should already be on board from X/Y fact is it doesn't work that way.

Actually that lines up with what I'm saying. Wii peaked in its 3rd year, and then declined off that peak quite a bit to year 4, and another large decline in year 5.

Year 4/5/6 always entails large drop offs for Nintendo hardware, the only real exception to that is the DS but that's never happening again because it had tapped into what would eventually become the market for smartphone gaming before that really took hold. 

Switch will probably peak this fiscal year with about 19 million units or so I'm guessing (beating their forecast), then decline the following year. Which is a pretty normal sales pattern for Nintendo systems. 

Metroid and Luigi's Mansion (assuming this moves to 2020) and Bayonetta are OK franchises but they're not really system selling franchises and doubling up on Mario/Zelda/Pokemon etc. creates a limited effect at some point. 

3DS sales also actually declined year over year that year that Pokemon X/Y first arrived. 



curl-6 said:

Odyssey now the best selling 3D Mario game, BOTW now over 14 million including Wii U. (So much for all the "it'll never pass 10m cos no Zelda ever has" talk back in 2017)

Anyone know Octopath's JP sales, so we can work out its total?

Also, c'mon Splatoon 2, hang in there, the 10 million mark is just 1.3m away, you can do it! 

I was trying to look that up for you but Google thought I was a bot because I opened too many searches with incremental characters (week numbers) too fast.

https://support.google.com/websearch/answer/86640?hl=en



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Signs of overshipping at Q3... This Q vgchartz sales seems well above the 2.5 shipments of this Q.

Well, 18M forecast is less than I expected, because I expected a 200$ mini switch around september.
Well, maybe they cannot hint they are making a mini, bcos it would decrease sales or regular switch until there.

Odyssey, splatoon 2 and pokemon slowing.
MK8 goint to 25M at least. Smash is going to be the second best selling switch title.
Splatoon really slow, but will enter the 10M team by the end of fiscal year.
Pokemon SS will also enter, and maybe mario party.



Total Nintendo Switch Online memberships are at 9.8 million, excluding free trials.
These subscripts also include family memberships.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2019/190426_3e.pdf

So, a little over 1 in every 4 Nintendo Switch owners have a paid online membership.



Pancho A. Ovies

Nintendo Switch in Japan (Famitsu): 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238945&page=2

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=239387

Hardware shipments are on the underwhelming side last quarter. I do not expect any significant redesign of the system because Nintendo is clearly not interested so far and subsequently I do not see price cuts on the horizon either ...

Last edited by fatslob-:O - on 25 April 2019