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Nintendo FY2018 results, Switch 34.74M, Software 187.52M

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo FY2018 results, Switch 34.74M, Software 187.52M

The big question on the software side is now: Can Mario Kart 8 Deluxe beat Mario Kart Wii total sales?



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Bofferbrauer2 said:
The big question on the software side is now: Can Mario Kart 8 Deluxe beat Mario Kart Wii total sales?

That's pretty unlikely as it's still sold less than half of what Mario Kart Wii did with 37 million total. I think it's more likely to beat Mario Kart DS at 23 million in sales



JamesGarret said:
Is this year expected to be Switchs peak year?... theyre only expecting 18m for this year, so if it turns out this year is indeed Switchs peak, does that seem underwhelming to you guys?

Well, they can still outperform it. Even if they don't, it won't be underwhelming. There's nothing underwhelming about a console selling potentially 80M-90M.  Sure, it won't be a 120M+ PS4, but it still means Nintendo is in a healthy position going forward.



I apologize. I am a dick, I should have listened more the few people here who had better knowledge to estimate the quantities in transit.

This transit has been severly adjusted down by the last Q4 report. In my table also, the last VGC estimation for Q4 is not adjusted down yet, I suppose it will be.



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Mandalore76 said:
DonFerrari said:

Switch haven't passed sales of PS4, so how would it them be the greatest comeback? Also PS4 have dominated WiiU and X1.

This is the exact quote you were countering:

Dulfite said:
Rather than focusing on the fact that they missed their lofty goal, can we not simply appreciate how far the switch has come compared to Wii U? Only the Wii after the GameCube was probably a greater comeback in gaming history.

Your counter was that you think the PS3 is the greatest comeback in video gaming history. That can only mean that you think the PS3 moving from 3rd place in its generation into slightly over 2nd place is a bigger comeback than not just the Switch, but also the Wii. While we don't know yet where the Switch will finish in lifetime sales, we do know that it only took 10 months to surpass the lifetime sales of its predecessor the Wii U. The Wii U finished in last place not just in it's generation, but was the lowest selling home console in Nintendo's history. Threads and comments to the effect of "Nintendo needs to leave hardware and go 3rd Party" were commonplace on this site prior to the launch of the Switch.  Less than 3 years later and Nintendo now has the leading global hardware seller on the current market. That is the great comeback Dulfite was commenting on. And it was compared to Nintendo's other comeback of the Wii finishing 1st in its generation with over 101 million units sold right after its predecessor the Gamecube had just finished 3rd in its generation with less than 22 million units sold.  So, I'm trying to figure out your reasoning for stating the PS3 moving from 3rd place in its generation into 2nd place would be considered "the greatest comeback in gaming history".  Please elaborate.

I think he had a problem with that part



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gtotheunit91 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:
The big question on the software side is now: Can Mario Kart 8 Deluxe beat Mario Kart Wii total sales?

That's pretty unlikely as it's still sold less than half of what Mario Kart Wii did with 37 million total. I think it's more likely to beat Mario Kart DS at 23 million in sales

Mario Kart DS is not a question of if, but of when. And at the rate it is selling, probably sometime next year, if not already during this holiday season.

It is showing to have the same insane legs as MKWii, but it's possible that the Switch itself will have much better legs than the Wii, thus giving MK8D a spot on overtaking MKWii over the distance. Won't happen before  a couple years in any case, but I wouldn't rule the possibility out as long as there's no successor on the Switch.

Edit: MK8DX shipped over 1.6M this quarter, it's safe to say that it will be above 20M at the end of the year. Enough to beat MK7 already? Doubtful, but not impossible.

If there will be no successor to MK8DX on the Switch, then 30M+ is pretty much a lock at this point with those sales and legs. But MKWii is also still selling and being shipped by Nintendo, so it's possible the mark to beat could end up being 40M, not "just" 37M. That's gonna get very tough to reach.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 25 April 2019

thismeintiel said:
JamesGarret said:
Is this year expected to be Switchs peak year?... theyre only expecting 18m for this year, so if it turns out this year is indeed Switchs peak, does that seem underwhelming to you guys?

Well, they can still outperform it. Even if they don't, it won't be underwhelming. There's nothing underwhelming about a console selling potentially 80M-90M.  Sure, it won't be a 120M+ PS4, but it still means Nintendo is in a healthy position going forward.

If they play their cards right (especially entering China), 100M+ is very possible!



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Mandalore76 said:
DonFerrari said:

Switch haven't passed sales of PS4, so how would it them be the greatest comeback? Also PS4 have dominated WiiU and X1.

This is the exact quote you were countering:

Dulfite said:
Rather than focusing on the fact that they missed their lofty goal, can we not simply appreciate how far the switch has come compared to Wii U? Only the Wii after the GameCube was probably a greater comeback in gaming history.

Your counter was that you think the PS3 is the greatest comeback in video gaming history. That can only mean that you think the PS3 moving from 3rd place in its generation into slightly over 2nd place is a bigger comeback than not just the Switch, but also the Wii. While we don't know yet where the Switch will finish in lifetime sales, we do know that it only took 10 months to surpass the lifetime sales of its predecessor the Wii U. The Wii U finished in last place not just in it's generation, but was the lowest selling home console in Nintendo's history. Threads and comments to the effect of "Nintendo needs to leave hardware and go 3rd Party" were commonplace on this site prior to the launch of the Switch.  Less than 3 years later and Nintendo now has the leading global hardware seller on the current market. That is the great comeback Dulfite was commenting on. And it was compared to Nintendo's other comeback of the Wii finishing 1st in its generation with over 101 million units sold right after its predecessor the Gamecube had just finished 3rd in its generation with less than 22 million units sold.  So, I'm trying to figure out your reasoning for stating the PS3 moving from 3rd place in its generation into 2nd place would be considered "the greatest comeback in gaming history".  Please elaborate.

Nintendo needs to go third party are a thing in VGC since Wii days.

The reasoning for PS3 being the biggest comeback is because it was done on the same generation instead of killing off the HW. Also as people here like to point it is successor to 3DS as well (and it finished first on its gen with 75M sold).



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Asriel said:
So despite sales to consumers being up year over year in both Japan and the US across January to March, Nintendo shipped fewer Switch units than the same quarter last year, when shipments were ~2.9 million - versus 2.47 million this year. Suggests retailers had some stock left from the huge Christmas shipments. You'd hope Nintendo learn their lesson and go for a more balanced sales curve this financial year. If the rumours are true and a hardware revision is coming in June with Mario Maker 2, then they should have stronger sales leading up to the Christmas season - especially if they get their hardware revision out in early June, giving a good boost to Q1 shipments and sales. If Mario Maker, Animal Crossing, Pokemon and hardware revisions are coming this year, you'd also expect them to exceed their 18 million target for the next FY.

Pokemon Let's Go software shipments were towards the lower end of the 'evergreen' titles - 600,000 units this quarter, so may not have the legs we expect from Pokemon - though it's probably going to sell similar amounts to third versions/remakes/sequels, and it is ultimately a remake. Compare that to Nintendo's other evergreen titles and it shipped slightly less than Super Mario Odyssey (~700,000 units) but more than Splatoon 2 (430,000 units). Impressively, Breath of the Wild shipped just over 1 million units this quarter, so continues its recent run of stronger quarterly sales than Mario. Super Mario Party shipped 1.1 million, another good result. Kart 8 DX shipped another 1.7 million copies - only slightly below Smash Ultimate's 1.8 million for the quarter.

You have to factor in PLG sold 10m in a month so shipping 600K the following quarter straight after is actually strong, SMO took 2 months to get to 9m and 3 to hit 10m while BOTW took about a year or so to hit 10m.



DonFerrari said:

Nintendo needs to go third party are a thing in VGC since Wii days.

The reasoning for PS3 being the biggest comeback is because it was done on the same generation instead of killing off the HW. Also as people here like to point it is successor to 3DS as well (and it finished first on its gen with 75M sold).

It can be argued the SNES coming back against the Mega Drive/Genesis to finish as market leader is the biggest come back that was in the same gen as well the MD/Genesis even had a two year head start and equivalent developer support.