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Nintendo FY2018 results, Switch 34.74M, Software 187.52M

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo FY2018 results, Switch 34.74M, Software 187.52M

curl-6 said:
haxxiy said:

If comparing tracking is your argument, why would it pass 100 million, if it's tracking below the Wii? Significantly below, too, since Wii did almost 26m in 2009 FY. Unless you mean the Wii was sabotaged somehow, which is eh...

Besides, the 3DS was an unique slow burner as far as modern Nintendo hardware goes. It sold more than a third of its lifetime sales after four fiscal years in the market. Don't count with the egg before it hatches etc.

The Wii was cut short early when Nintendo effectively abandoned it after 2010 when development was moved to 3DS and Wii U. There's no reason for them to do the same with Switch as they no longer have to worry about supporting two different product lines. As such, the Switch will likely have significantly better legs than the Wii beyond Year 4.

Exactly.  Nintendo basically ended its support for Wii when sales dipped below 20 million a year.  Looking back the Wii was actually one of the least front-loaded Nintendo consoles with sales holding rather steady, and had it received proper support in 2011-2012 I could easily see it selling around 120 million units lifetime.

It certainly looks like Nintendo will not repeat the mistakes it made at the end of the Wii's life with the Switch.  It won't reach the Wii's highs, but it will be around longer.



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Bofferbrauer2 said:
Farsala said:

3DS had good legs due to decent performance in all 3 regions. The Switch will blast 3DS in the Americas but fall behind in Japan. Let's compare Switch and 3DS, equal quarters.

Switch is 14.01m America, 8.23m Japan, and 12.50m Others. 34.74m Total

3DS was 10.26m America (38.7% of Current sales), 11.54m Japan (45.8%), and 9.29m (39.5%) Others. 31.09m (41.4%) Total.

Switch has a 3.65m lead. 3DS only shipped 12m next FY, while Nintendo predicts 18m for Switch. Clearly Switch will widen the lead.

As you can see at this point in its life (March 31, 2013), the 3DS has sold ~41.4% of its total sales. Its highest proportion of sales was due to frontloaded sales in Japan at 45.8%. I think Japan sales are usually frontloaded though, with the Switch lagging far behind in Japan but far ahead in America and Others. I think we could make a guess and assume some of the % that the Switch has sold so far of its LTD.

For example if we go with 37/40/39. Then we get 37.9m America, 20.5m Japan, and 32.05m Others. Giving 90.45m Total sales. Personally, I think that is a bit strong. At 90.45m it outsells the 3DS by 14m.

3DS is dropping hard in Japan after it's 3rd year (2013: 5.1M, 2014: 3.1M). It's not difficult to imagine that after this year, the Switch will actually start closing the gap to the 3DS in Japan, just like it probably will start to do worldwide against the Wii. I don't expect the Switch to be nearly as frontloaded as the 3DS in Japan.

In fact, the way the sales are going in Japan, it doesn't look like the Switch will loose by much this year already. It is already up by 300k over last year, and that will certainly only grow over the next weeks and months.

I don't disagree, but it has a long way to be close to that 5.1m.



Yeah once that Switch Lite comes out. Boom! We should see major sales in Japan.



Pocky Lover Boy! 

Jranation said:
Yeah once that Switch Lite comes out. Boom! We should see major sales in Japan.

Even without it, the Switch is already 300k above last year's sales at this point. 4.5M are almost a given by now already, and from there to 5.1 is not such big of a step anymore.



Their projections are very conservative for the coming year but like most analyst believe they don't want another mishap like last year over projecting their sales. Also, they didn't confirm any new hardware because that would ruin current HW sales so it's pretty obvious they won't announce new versions of the Switch till they are about to release them. Other than that they are making decent money. I just wished I sold my 60+ shares when the OTC stock was around $58 per share. I took a big hit last year but held on because I know this years lineup has many system sellers. So now I'm only down a couple hundred instead of more than a thousand. Plan is to hold till it goes back to 55-60 per share.



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I find it absolutely baffling that there are still people projecting Switch to sell on par or worse than 3DS.

3DS needed an emergency price cut to $170 within a year of launching, and by this point in its life had already gotten a hardware revision, yet the Switch is still tracking ahead of it at $300 with no revisions as of yet.

To sell less than 3DS Switch would've had to have sold almost half its entire lifetime sales already, before any price cuts, before any revisions, before core Pokemon, Animal Crossing...

It makes no rational sense.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 29 April 2019

curl-6 said:

I find it absolutely baffling that there are still people projecting Switch to sell on par or worse than 3DS.

3DS needed an emergency price cut to $170 within a year of launching, and by this point in its life had already gotten a hardware revision, yet the Switch is still tracking ahead of it at $300 with no revisions as of yet.

To sell less than 3DS Switch would've had to have sold almost half its entire lifetime sales already, before any price cuts, before any revisions, before core Pokemon, Animal Crossing...

I just don't get it.

Cliff Syndrome?



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

curl-6 said:

I find it absolutely baffling that there are still people projecting Switch to sell on par or worse than 3DS.

3DS needed an emergency price cut to $170 within a year of launching, and by this point in its life had already gotten a hardware revision, yet the Switch is still tracking ahead of it at $300 with no revisions as of yet.

To sell less than 3DS Switch would've had to have sold almost half its entire lifetime sales already, before any price cuts, before any revisions, before core Pokemon, Animal Crossing...

It makes no rational sense.

We have people that still believe PS4 won't cross 100M sales, and also have people that expect every star to align for Switch to have the best outcome possible. Don't mock people just because they don't agree with you.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

curl-6 said:

I find it absolutely baffling that there are still people projecting Switch to sell on par or worse than 3DS.

3DS needed an emergency price cut to $170 within a year of launching, and by this point in its life had already gotten a hardware revision, yet the Switch is still tracking ahead of it at $300 with no revisions as of yet.

To sell less than 3DS Switch would've had to have sold almost half its entire lifetime sales already, before any price cuts, before any revisions, before core Pokemon, Animal Crossing...

It makes no rational sense.

It pleases me that you go through what I've gone through with you for a couple of years. Now you know how that is.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

DonFerrari said:
curl-6 said:

I find it absolutely baffling that there are still people projecting Switch to sell on par or worse than 3DS.

3DS needed an emergency price cut to $170 within a year of launching, and by this point in its life had already gotten a hardware revision, yet the Switch is still tracking ahead of it at $300 with no revisions as of yet.

To sell less than 3DS Switch would've had to have sold almost half its entire lifetime sales already, before any price cuts, before any revisions, before core Pokemon, Animal Crossing...

It makes no rational sense.

We have people that still believe PS4 won't cross 100M sales, and also have people that expect every star to align for Switch to have the best outcome possible. Don't mock people just because they don't agree with you.

I don't really see any mocking.  Worse he said was is that doesn't make rational sense.  If you take offense to that then you must be very sheltered.