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Global Hardware 6 April 2019

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Mbolibombo said:
colafitte said:

Mmm, you asked me "What deems this to be expected though?", and i answered the only fact that can be expected, that Nintendo themselves said they expect to ship 17'0M for FY, so 2'5M for Q4. It's the only answer i can give you, so i don't really understand your point here. I even explained already multiple times why we should accept that number, i really can't say anything more without repeating myself. And no, they said 20M at the beggining of the FY. It's not the same as expecting something for the next quarter. Probably the sum of units to be shipped by Q4 was already established by the moment they said what to expect for FY.

Like i said, despite VGC showing that huge growth that you mention in JP and in USA, the total units sold to consumers are what they are, around 33'0M by the end of March. So do you really expect that Switch has around 36M shipped by that time??, is VGC tracking incorrectly according to you then? because that's what you're saying.

I already said there is a possibility VGC is tracking too low Switch (implying that maybe there will be more units shipped, like maybe 500k more), but that's not my main prediction. It's a reasonable possibility to me, but nothing else. If i have to bet money i will bet what i said. Of course your opinion is perfectly fine, but you have to consider that your main reason as to why Switch will ship more (because that growth in JP and US) has already been acknowledged by VGC in their tracking. That's all.

Nintendo said during a briefing halfway through the fiscal year they were not going to change their 20M forecast, so yes they have mentioned 20M after the beginning of the fiscal year. 

I'm not saying VGC is tracking incorrectly, I'm saying dont blindly put all your eggs in the basket. VGC mentioned themselves that they have lost several trackers since the new year and they have done reactionary changes upwards to the weekly charts a numerous times over the past quarter. Including when their latest briefing released, and every single NPD leak/release. So no I dont put much faith in VGC tracking EU+RotW 100% accurate either, but who knows maybe they do have significantly better tracking in these regions. I much rather look at official shipping history combined with sell history and ratios to get my picture.

But it's all semantics, we argue about 0.5-1M units and we wont really come anywhere with this. If you're right on thursday(?) I will give you a cookie for having  a correct prediction! ;P

Hahaha fair enough, i will do the same if you're right.

I agree though in the fact tracking EU+RotW is difficult (i expressed my doubts about this multiple times in the past in fact), so that's why i can accept the possibility of Switch being undertracked. But i am completely honest telling you that if VGC is tracking correctly i'm 100% sure there won't be around 3M units left on stock by the end of March. To be 35'8M shipped Switch has to be around 34'0M sold to consumers, at least, and that means Switch is undertracked 1M here and i think that's too much. Maybe it can be something inbetween, like 35'3M shipped (17'5M for the year) and 33'3M sold to consumers. If you expect something like this, then i can agree with you, although i still expect what i said.

So settled then, it's this thursday then?, so we don't have to wait that much. I'll be here when the annoucement comes then.



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colafitte said:
Mbolibombo said:

Nintendo said during a briefing halfway through the fiscal year they were not going to change their 20M forecast, so yes they have mentioned 20M after the beginning of the fiscal year. 

I'm not saying VGC is tracking incorrectly, I'm saying dont blindly put all your eggs in the basket. VGC mentioned themselves that they have lost several trackers since the new year and they have done reactionary changes upwards to the weekly charts a numerous times over the past quarter. Including when their latest briefing released, and every single NPD leak/release. So no I dont put much faith in VGC tracking EU+RotW 100% accurate either, but who knows maybe they do have significantly better tracking in these regions. I much rather look at official shipping history combined with sell history and ratios to get my picture.

But it's all semantics, we argue about 0.5-1M units and we wont really come anywhere with this. If you're right on thursday(?) I will give you a cookie for having  a correct prediction! ;P

Hahaha fair enough, i will do the same if you're right.

I agree though in the fact tracking EU+RotW is difficult (i expressed my doubts about this multiple times in the past in fact), so that's why i can accept the possibility of Switch being undertracked. But i am completely honest telling you that if VGC is tracking correctly i'm 100% sure there won't be around 3M units left on stock by the end of March. To be 35'8M shipped Switch has to be around 34'0M sold to consumers, at least, and that means Switch is undertracked 1M here and i think that's too much. Maybe it can be something inbetween, like 35'3M shipped (17'5M for the year) and 33'3M sold to consumers. If you expect something like this, then i can agree with you, although i still expect what i said.

So settled then, it's this thursday then?, so we don't have to wait that much. I'll be here when the annoucement comes then.

I believe it's thursday the 25th yes =) Unsure if I will be here during the release, but during the day definately hah. If your prediction is correct, I will bring you with one swedish classic cookie ;P



colafitte said:
peachbuggy said:

Your argument is all well and good but do you have any proof Nintendo overshipped in Q3 other than your own supposition?

Where did i said Nintendo overshipped in Q3?? Nintendo shipped exactly what they had to, that's why back in January i was so convinced Switch had sold to consumers around 29'5M before VGC made adjustments, because i expected 2'5-3'0M "on shelves". Switch shipped 32'3M total after Q3 and VGC showed 29'5M units sold to consumers by the end of the year. And that was confirmed the moment Nintendo themselves said Switch just surpassed 30M units sold to consumers by the end of January. So yeah, in the end there was 2'8M left to sell after Q3 according to VGC. That's a lot and that's why i don't expect Q4 shipments to be bigger than 2'5M like Nintendo is not expecting it either. Thanks to stock left plus shipments this quarter, that's why Switch is selling around 3'5M to consumers this past quarter.

Nintendo is going to announce in a few days that Switch has shipped around 35M (because that's what Nintendo said they expect to ship after saying they expect to ship 17'0M this FY), that could be 34'8M, 35'0M, 35'2M in the end, ... something around that, and that shows that the numbers VGC is showing are probably correct.

I really don't see what's it's triggering so many reactions to my comments. What i am saying is not that difficult to accept....

Your original post quite clearly mentioned it, as does this one i'm quoting. Nintendos' statement in January was misleading due to Nintendos' well known conservatism. I would not take that as gospel, nor would i take VGChartz's numbers as gospel either. They have just been adjusted upwards and they are just as likely to be again after Nintendos' end of FY report. Also 2.5-3m is a lot to be in transit/sitting on shelves. You seem to be on a 1-man mission to discredit Switch numbers, just as Quickrick (Rip) was before you. Well, i hope you don't take being wrong as personally as he did to his detriment and eventual downfall :( 



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peachbuggy said:
colafitte said:

Where did i said Nintendo overshipped in Q3?? Nintendo shipped exactly what they had to, that's why back in January i was so convinced Switch had sold to consumers around 29'5M before VGC made adjustments, because i expected 2'5-3'0M "on shelves". Switch shipped 32'3M total after Q3 and VGC showed 29'5M units sold to consumers by the end of the year. And that was confirmed the moment Nintendo themselves said Switch just surpassed 30M units sold to consumers by the end of January. So yeah, in the end there was 2'8M left to sell after Q3 according to VGC. That's a lot and that's why i don't expect Q4 shipments to be bigger than 2'5M like Nintendo is not expecting it either. Thanks to stock left plus shipments this quarter, that's why Switch is selling around 3'5M to consumers this past quarter.

Nintendo is going to announce in a few days that Switch has shipped around 35M (because that's what Nintendo said they expect to ship after saying they expect to ship 17'0M this FY), that could be 34'8M, 35'0M, 35'2M in the end, ... something around that, and that shows that the numbers VGC is showing are probably correct.

I really don't see what's it's triggering so many reactions to my comments. What i am saying is not that difficult to accept....

Your original post quite clearly mentioned it, as does this one i'm quoting. Nintendos' statement in January was misleading due to Nintendos' well known conservatism. I would not take that as gospel, nor would i take VGChartz's numbers as gospel either. They have just been adjusted upwards and they are just as likely to be again after Nintendos' end of FY report. Also 2.5-3m is a lot to be in transit/sitting on shelves. You seem to be on a 1-man mission to discredit Switch numbers, just as Quickrick (Rip) was before you. Well, i hope you don't take being wrong as personally as he did to his detriment and eventual downfall :( 

On a mission?, oh come on.....My original post had a take in each console and the least pessimistic was the Switch one, but is me talking about Switch in this site and everytime i am accused of something...despite being right in the end (like i was for Shipments in Q3 and consumer sales at the end of the year, in fact i was spot on). And no, in no moment i ever said or insinuated Q3 was overshipped. Every succesful console in the holiday season leaves around 2-3M units on stock left during Q3. That's not overship but is indeed a lot of units left and those units left are sold during the next year.

If you consider a Nintendo official statement "misleading" and "known conservative" for what they're going to sell in the next quarter talk for yourself because that's just your opinion, mine is different.

You said 2'5-3M on transit is a lot, if you refer to end of December, you're wrong, if you are talking about March, you are correct, and if that's the case i agree with you, that's why i don't expect more than 17'0M shipped and why i give the possibility that if indeed shipped more then VGC is undertracking Switch. I really don't know how i can be more specific and honest about Switch situation sales without being treated as a hater by some people here..., always the same story....

Prove me wrong or in denial about Switch JUST ONCE and then you can say that i'm on a mission, if not, i will appreciate stoping coments like this because yes, they're personal. Thanks.



colafitte said:
peachbuggy said:

Your original post quite clearly mentioned it, as does this one i'm quoting. Nintendos' statement in January was misleading due to Nintendos' well known conservatism. I would not take that as gospel, nor would i take VGChartz's numbers as gospel either. They have just been adjusted upwards and they are just as likely to be again after Nintendos' end of FY report. Also 2.5-3m is a lot to be in transit/sitting on shelves. You seem to be on a 1-man mission to discredit Switch numbers, just as Quickrick (Rip) was before you. Well, i hope you don't take being wrong as personally as he did to his detriment and eventual downfall :( 

On a mission?, oh come on.....My original post had a take in each console and the least pessimistic was the Switch one, but is me talking about Switch in this site and everytime i am accused of something...despite being right in the end (like i was for Shipments in Q3 and consumer sales at the end of the year, in fact i was spot on). And no, in no moment i ever said or insinuated Q3 was overshipped. Every succesful console in the holiday season leaves around 2-3M units on stock left during Q3. That's not overship but is indeed a lot of units left and those units left are sold during the next year.

If you consider a Nintendo official statement "misleading" and "known conservative" for what they're going to sell in the next quarter talk for yourself because that's just your opinion, mine is different.

You said 2'5-3M on transit is a lot, if you refer to end of December, you're wrong, if you are talking about March, you are correct, and if that's the case i agree with you, that's why i don't expect more than 17'0M shipped and why i give the possibility that if indeed shipped more then VGC is undertracking Switch. I really don't know how i can be more specific and honest about Switch situation sales without being treated as a hater by some people here..., always the same story....

Prove me wrong or in denial about Switch JUST ONCE and then you can say that i'm on a mission, if not, i will appreciate stoping coments like this because yes, they're personal. Thanks.

Yes, that's just how you are perceived. As on a mission to undervalue the sales potential for the Switch at every opportunity, particularly on this thread and the March 16th sales thread. Your original post implied the Switch was overshipped in Q3 even to the extent you claimed sold would be higher than shipped in Q4. Your original post wasn't more optimistic for the Switch in mine and any others' opinions here. If i was to be brutally honest, almost your whole premise here is pretty much anti-switch and trying to downplay any positives for it. As for your claim that Switch would struggle to reach its amended sales target is laughable. As for how many units in transit/store shelves in Q3, that's pretty much up to the individuals interpretation. Nothing is particularly "normal" for that time of year. 

Nintendo are pretty much their own worst enemy for unintentionally misleading people with their "Sold through" comments. They would be better off not mentioning it at all if i'm honest. It was the 3rd time they have done it this gen and "as of 30th. Jan". is misleading because it could have passed the sales target prior to that. Nintendo was being deliberately vague, as they had no real, up to date definitive sales data. Same goes for the numbers. "Over" could be 1 unit or 999,999 units. Again, being that they are conservative they didn't want to be seen as misleading the public/investors but ended up doing so anyway. You took their numbers as literal but they were only a very conservative estimate and deliberately vague, just so as it was in the past and also proven to be conservative and unintentionally misleading. They just wanted to wait until they were absolutely positive by their data that they had passed the landmark. So it could have been quite a bit over by the time they claimed said figure. Not the 1st time they have done it either. Probably won't be the last.

FYI quite a few on Resetera are predicting 18m+ shipped for Switch last FY and i see no reason to disagree with them. As for your comments about being right about shipments and consumer sales,

a) Show me where you were proven right about Q3 shipments.

b) The only way you were proven "Right" about consumer sales are because of your agenda, going on and on about them being too high until downward adjustments were made here. I fully expect it to be adjusted back up on here once the Q4 briefing has been published. If by the sales team listened to your incessant insistences that the Switch was overtracked here then, sure you were right

but prepare to be proven wrong on both counts, including the last quarter, once the Q4 results from Nintendo have been published. At least we don't have to wait long :)

Last edited by peachbuggy - on 23 April 2019

DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

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So with the adjustments, PS4 is now at just below 76% of the Switch.



peachbuggy said:
colafitte said:

On a mission?, oh come on.....My original post had a take in each console and the least pessimistic was the Switch one, but is me talking about Switch in this site and everytime i am accused of something...despite being right in the end (like i was for Shipments in Q3 and consumer sales at the end of the year, in fact i was spot on). And no, in no moment i ever said or insinuated Q3 was overshipped. Every succesful console in the holiday season leaves around 2-3M units on stock left during Q3. That's not overship but is indeed a lot of units left and those units left are sold during the next year.

If you consider a Nintendo official statement "misleading" and "known conservative" for what they're going to sell in the next quarter talk for yourself because that's just your opinion, mine is different.

You said 2'5-3M on transit is a lot, if you refer to end of December, you're wrong, if you are talking about March, you are correct, and if that's the case i agree with you, that's why i don't expect more than 17'0M shipped and why i give the possibility that if indeed shipped more then VGC is undertracking Switch. I really don't know how i can be more specific and honest about Switch situation sales without being treated as a hater by some people here..., always the same story....

Prove me wrong or in denial about Switch JUST ONCE and then you can say that i'm on a mission, if not, i will appreciate stoping coments like this because yes, they're personal. Thanks.

Yes, that's just how you are perceived. As on a mission to undervalue the sales potential for the Switch at every opportunity, particularly on this thread and the March 16th sales thread. Your original post implied the Switch was overshipped in Q3 even to the extent you claimed sold would be higher than shipped in Q4. Your original post wasn't more optimistic for the Switch in mine and any others' opinions here. If i was to be brutally honest, almost your whole premise here is pretty much anti-switch and trying to downplay any positives for it. As for your claim that Switch would struggle to reach its amended sales target is laughable. As for how many units in transit/store shelves in Q3, that's pretty much up to the individuals interpretation. Nothing is particularly "normal" for that time of year. 

Nintendo are pretty much their own worst enemy for unintentionally misleading people with their "Sold through" comments. They would be better off not mentioning it at all if i'm honest. It was the 3rd time they have done it this gen and "as of 30th. Jan". is misleading because it could have passed the sales target prior to that. Nintendo was being deliberately vague, as they had no real, up to date definitive sales data. Same goes for the numbers. "Over" could be 1 unit or 999,999 units. Again, being that they are conservative they didn't want to be seen as misleading the public/investors but ended up doing so anyway. You took their numbers as literal but they were only a very conservative estimate and deliberately vague, just so as it was in the past and also proven to be conservative and unintentionally misleading. They just wanted to wait until they were absolutely positive by their data that they had passed the landmark. So it could have been quite a bit over by the time they claimed said figure. Not the 1st time they have done it either. Probably won't be the last.

FYI quite a few on Resetera are predicting 18m+ shipped for Switch last FY and i see no reason to disagree with them. As for your comments about being right about shipments and consumer sales,

a) Show me where you were proven right about Q3 shipments.

b) The only way you were proven "Right" about consumer sales are because of your agenda, going on and on about them being too high until downward adjustments were made here. I fully expect it to be adjusted back up on here once the Q4 briefing has been published. If by the sales team listened to your incessant insistences that the Switch was overtracked here then, sure you were right

but prepare to be proven wrong on both counts, including the last quarter, once the Q4 results from Nintendo have been published. At least we don't have to wait long :)

You really are an awful poster, that's the only thing i'm going o say to you (and if there are more people that think the same i don't care). I don't care if i get banned. People like you make me want to no post never again in this site. I always treat with respect every poster here and i'm an adult that doesnt need to endure this kind of comments. If you find satisfaction insulting people in the internet, good for you. I won't spent anymore more time on this topic. Enjoy this "victory" because thanks to you i'm not going to post anymore about Switch, it's not worth it.

As for VGC mods, i wish some of you could have done something about this in this recent months. The fact that i can say anything about PS4 and XBO and nothing happens but the moment i say something about Switch i become sorrounded by attackers is unacceptable. I posted much less recently because i was tired of this kind of discussions, but this last comment has surpassed my patience. I'm done.



colafitte said:
Mbolibombo said:

Nintendo said during a briefing halfway through the fiscal year they were not going to change their 20M forecast, so yes they have mentioned 20M after the beginning of the fiscal year. 

I'm not saying VGC is tracking incorrectly, I'm saying dont blindly put all your eggs in the basket. VGC mentioned themselves that they have lost several trackers since the new year and they have done reactionary changes upwards to the weekly charts a numerous times over the past quarter. Including when their latest briefing released, and every single NPD leak/release. So no I dont put much faith in VGC tracking EU+RotW 100% accurate either, but who knows maybe they do have significantly better tracking in these regions. I much rather look at official shipping history combined with sell history and ratios to get my picture.

But it's all semantics, we argue about 0.5-1M units and we wont really come anywhere with this. If you're right on thursday(?) I will give you a cookie for having  a correct prediction! ;P

Hahaha fair enough, i will do the same if you're right.

I agree though in the fact tracking EU+RotW is difficult (i expressed my doubts about this multiple times in the past in fact), so that's why i can accept the possibility of Switch being undertracked. But i am completely honest telling you that if VGC is tracking correctly i'm 100% sure there won't be around 3M units left on stock by the end of March. To be 35'8M shipped Switch has to be around 34'0M sold to consumers, at least, and that means Switch is undertracked 1M here and i think that's too much. Maybe it can be something inbetween, like 35'3M shipped (17'5M for the year) and 33'3M sold to consumers. If you expect something like this, then i can agree with you, although i still expect what i said.

So settled then, it's this thursday then?, so we don't have to wait that much. I'll be here when the annoucement comes then.

You were right on the money ~17M units. I'm bringing you swedish classic cookie mandelkubb, it has a mixed relationship with our population - hate it or love it. I hate it, my wife loves it :P



Switch is now at 34.74M shipped according to Nintendo.



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Marth said:
Switch is now at 34.74M shipped according to Nintendo.

VGChartz has Switch sales at 32.94 million units as of March 30. That would put 1.8 million units on store shelves or in transit. 



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