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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 6 April 2019

StarDoor on 22 April 2019
colafitte said:
Switch is performing as expected. Nintendo is going to ship around 17'0M for the FY18, so Switch has to end around 35M shipped total by the end of March. If Switch has sold 33'0M to consumers by then there will be around 2'0M on shelves, in my opinion a little bit too much by this time of the year (althought perfectly possible). So this could mean three things: a) Switch is not going to reach the goal, b) Switch has sold to consumers more than VGC is showing, c) Switch is going to have that much units on shelves indeed and that will mean Switch is going to sell a lot more than last year in Q1 FY19 to consumers thanks to previous stock left available.

Wait, so you think that Switch shipments are going to be more than 900k below sell-through for this quarter? To reach 17.0M, Switch needs to ship 2.52M, and VGC shows sell-through of 3.46M for those 13 weeks.



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Medisti on 23 April 2019
curl-6 said:
Ganoncrotch said:

Whoa, Switch adjusted up while the other 2 machines getting adjusted down, based on those new numbers that would mean that Nintendo actually landed 21k more controllers into hands this week than the other 2 companies combined efforts, heck the Switch alone is around 6k units off outselling the PS4 and X1 combined.

Also the X1 down to the 60k mark globally? that's pretty much a console on the way out, very much on the way out, it would now be very common knowledge even among those not too up on the sales of systems that it would be a poor investment right now to buy that system. Cascade sales drop in full effect. That is a 10k drop from last week for a system that's already selling tragically low numbers when you consider that it's got 2 different SKU's on the shelf with another one on the way with even less features. This E3 is going to need to start off with a large dish of humble pie and a very clear acknowledgement that the Xbox 1 was not what gamers wanted... that said, the Xbox1SAD is a closer step towards the original vision of what the X1 was going to be when it launched, no real ownership of games, less control of your device and also no backwards compatibility again which was lauded as one of the better features of the X1, now with the lack of disk drive completely back to square zero in that regard.

It's going to be a very long 19 months for MS, assuming the next gen Xbox arrives holiday 2020; there's really nothing that can be done for Xbone at this point, it's a sinking ship, but they are stuck with it until they can get a successor out...

colafitte said:

XBO is so dead that i still believe XBO won't reach 50M before their successor comes in 2020 (even if it comes in holiday 2020). Considering that, as time passes, i won't be surprised if Microsoft prefer to launch their next console during March 2020 to have an advantage against PS5 launching on the holiday season.

...but on the other hand, being out March 2020 poses a big risk of letting Sony get the upper hand by being able to tailor PS5 to counter what Xbox Two offers.

Medisti said:

A lot of people are. There's even a term for it: The Osborne Effect. Though, that pertains specifically to announcing your new product too soon and killing sales of your current one. But the new product being confirmed ALWAYS has an impact.

PS5 was always "confirmed", we always knew there would be one. I don't think it'll start having any significant effect on PS4 sales until they actually properly reveal the thing.

You're obviously missing the point. Of course people knew a PS5 would come along eventually. But the fact that Sony talked about it is the same to some customers as saying "No reason to buy our current product because the new one is close."



curl-6 on 23 April 2019
Medisti said:
curl-6 said:

It's going to be a very long 19 months for MS, assuming the next gen Xbox arrives holiday 2020; there's really nothing that can be done for Xbone at this point, it's a sinking ship, but they are stuck with it until they can get a successor out...

...but on the other hand, being out March 2020 poses a big risk of letting Sony get the upper hand by being able to tailor PS5 to counter what Xbox Two offers.

PS5 was always "confirmed", we always knew there would be one. I don't think it'll start having any significant effect on PS4 sales until they actually properly reveal the thing.

You're obviously missing the point. Of course people knew a PS5 would come along eventually. But the fact that Sony talked about it is the same to some customers as saying "No reason to buy our current product because the new one is close."

They haven't revealed it though, they've just given some very scarce and vague comments, nothing to suggest it's imminent. That is not going to make people hold off on getting a PS4.



Medisti on 23 April 2019
curl-6 said:
Medisti said:

You're obviously missing the point. Of course people knew a PS5 would come along eventually. But the fact that Sony talked about it is the same to some customers as saying "No reason to buy our current product because the new one is close."

They haven't revealed it though, they've just given some very scarce and vague comments, nothing to suggest it's imminent. That is not going to make people hold off on getting a PS4.

It will, though. Not as many as after the big reveal, but when your friend says "I heard the PS5 is gonna be revealed soon," you might decided to hold off until after you see what it is. Especially since it's apparently backwards-compatible.



curl-6 on 23 April 2019
Medisti said:
curl-6 said:

They haven't revealed it though, they've just given some very scarce and vague comments, nothing to suggest it's imminent. That is not going to make people hold off on getting a PS4.

It will, though. Not as many as after the big reveal, but when your friend says "I heard the PS5 is gonna be revealed soon," you might decided to hold off until after you see what it is. Especially since it's apparently backwards-compatible.

They haven't said it's going to be revealed soon though. They've announced basically nothing except "at some undefined point in the future there'll be another Playstation (which was always a given) and it'll use a solid state drive." 



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Medisti on 23 April 2019
curl-6 said:
Medisti said:

It will, though. Not as many as after the big reveal, but when your friend says "I heard the PS5 is gonna be revealed soon," you might decided to hold off until after you see what it is. Especially since it's apparently backwards-compatible.

They haven't said it's going to be revealed soon though. They've announced basically nothing except "at some undefined point in the future there'll be another Playstation (which was always a given) and it'll use a solid state drive." 

While that is true, I heard enough normies talk about how Nintendo had a new console coming soon after the NX was first mentioned. We're the minority of the market, really. Those who don't follow the stuff too closely tend to misinterpret a lot.



Bofferbrauer2 on 23 April 2019
StarDoor said:
colafitte said:
Switch is performing as expected. Nintendo is going to ship around 17'0M for the FY18, so Switch has to end around 35M shipped total by the end of March. If Switch has sold 33'0M to consumers by then there will be around 2'0M on shelves, in my opinion a little bit too much by this time of the year (althought perfectly possible). So this could mean three things: a) Switch is not going to reach the goal, b) Switch has sold to consumers more than VGC is showing, c) Switch is going to have that much units on shelves indeed and that will mean Switch is going to sell a lot more than last year in Q1 FY19 to consumers thanks to previous stock left available.

Wait, so you think that Switch shipments are going to be more than 900k below sell-through for this quarter? To reach 17.0M, Switch needs to ship 2.52M, and VGC shows sell-through of 3.46M for those 13 weeks.

Winter is always where the shipments from the holiday season that couldn't be sold then anymore is going to be sold, hence why the stocks are shrinking in that period. But 900k is a whole lot and I don't think that's true, 600-800k seem more reasonable to me. Not very much lower, but still...



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

curl-6 on 23 April 2019
Medisti said:
curl-6 said:

They haven't said it's going to be revealed soon though. They've announced basically nothing except "at some undefined point in the future there'll be another Playstation (which was always a given) and it'll use a solid state drive." 

While that is true, I heard enough normies talk about how Nintendo had a new console coming soon after the NX was first mentioned. We're the minority of the market, really. Those who don't follow the stuff too closely tend to misinterpret a lot.

True, but they also have a short memory and I wouldn't be surprised if many of them either missed Sony's PS5 tease or have already forgotten about it. I guess I just feel like it would take something more solid like a full-blown reveal to have a substantial effect on PS4 sales, especially when there's no suggestion of PS5 arriving in the next year or even the next 18 months



StarDoor on 23 April 2019
Bofferbrauer2 said:
StarDoor said:

Wait, so you think that Switch shipments are going to be more than 900k below sell-through for this quarter? To reach 17.0M, Switch needs to ship 2.52M, and VGC shows sell-through of 3.46M for those 13 weeks.

Winter is always where the shipments from the holiday season that couldn't be sold then anymore is going to be sold, hence why the stocks are shrinking in that period. But 900k is a whole lot and I don't think that's true, 600-800k seem more reasonable to me. Not very much lower, but still...

Yeah, it's definitely possible for sales to exceed shipments, as that's frequently happened with PS4 in the March quarter. It's just really bizarre for colafitte to say that the VGC data makes him think that Switch will miss the target. At the end of March 2018, Switch had 17.79M shipped and VGC says 15.87M sold, which makes a gap of 1.92M. At the end of March 2019, VGC says that Switch is at 32.93M sold. For Switch to end up missing the fiscal year forecast, its shipments need to be under 34.79M: This means the gap between sales and shipments can be 1.86M at most. The only way for Switch to miss the forecast is if it has fewer units in stock now than it did back at the end of March 2018, despite selling at a 26%+ faster rate worldwide in the first quarter of 2019. If 1.86M is too much to have in stock at the end of March, according to colafitte, why was 1.92M not too much last year?



aris4me on 23 April 2019

Im very happy for the switch, it totally deserves it! Congrats!