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Global Hardware 6 April 2019

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curl-6 said:
Alex_The_Hedgehog said:

I'm glad I'm not the only one thinking that. Also, since PlayStation 5 will be backward compatible, waiting for it makes even more sense.

Well, if the person that wants to play PS4 games is Ok with waiting until the PS5 release, that is.

I doubt the PS5 is having much impact on PS4 sales as it hasn't even been properly revealed yet. All we have are some scarce factoids and insubstantial rumors.

I agree.  Especially since these sales would have happened before Cerny gave us any details on the PS5.



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SammyGiireal said:
Ganoncrotch said:

Whoa, Switch adjusted up while the other 2 machines getting adjusted down, based on those new numbers that would mean that Nintendo actually landed 21k more controllers into hands this week than the other 2 companies combined efforts, heck the Switch alone is around 6k units off outselling the PS4 and X1 combined.

Also the X1 down to the 60k mark globally? that's pretty much a console on the way out, very much on the way out, it would now be very common knowledge even among those not too up on the sales of systems that it would be a poor investment right now to buy that system. Cascade sales drop in full effect. That is a 10k drop from last week for a system that's already selling tragically low numbers when you consider that it's got 2 different SKU's on the shelf with another one on the way with even less features. This E3 is going to need to start off with a large dish of humble pie and a very clear acknowledgement that the Xbox 1 was not what gamers wanted... that said, the Xbox1SAD is a closer step towards the original vision of what the X1 was going to be when it launched, no real ownership of games, less control of your device and also no backwards compatibility again which was lauded as one of the better features of the X1, now with the lack of disk drive completely back to square zero in that regard.

In truth this is a problem. The disc less Xbox one S will flop...badly. they cut the biggest incentive togetting one by getting rid of the UHD drive.

The backwards compatibility loss as well is fairly significant.



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Switch is performing as expected. Nintendo is going to ship around 17'0M for the FY18, so Switch has to end around 35M shipped total by the end of March. If Switch has sold 33'0M to consumers by then there will be around 2'0M on shelves, in my opinion a little bit too much by this time of the year (althought perfectly possible). So this could mean three things: a) Switch is not going to reach the goal, b) Switch has sold to consumers more than VGC is showing, c) Switch is going to have that much units on shelves indeed and that will mean Switch is going to sell a lot more than last year in Q1 FY19 to consumers thanks to previous stock left available.

PS4 on the other hand, as time passes seems it's going to end around 14'5M sold to consumers in 2019 if there is no price cut. It's going to be a huge drop compared to 2018, but from Sony's perspective, selling 14-15M consoles at $300 is still as good or even better than what PS3 did in its prime, so maybe Sony will be satisified with this. If there is some important price cut this year, then PS4 can sell around 15-16M, but i'm not confident on that anymore.

XBO is so dead that i still believe XBO won't reach 50M before their successor comes in 2020 (even if it comes in holiday 2020). Considering that, as time passes, i won't be surprised if Microsoft prefer to launch their next console during March 2020 to have an advantage against PS5 launching on the holiday season.



Ouch, after the adjustments PS4 numbers are still good, but NS weekly lead becomes even more impressive. PS4 starts showing its age, and while a price drop now could maybe be partially wasted, it will most probably need one in Autumn.



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Switch takes commanding leads in NA/Japan, but still lose EU, not sure why I find that funny. Sony is unstoppable no matter what in EU.



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Ganoncrotch said:

Whoa, Switch adjusted up while the other 2 machines getting adjusted down, based on those new numbers that would mean that Nintendo actually landed 21k more controllers into hands this week than the other 2 companies combined efforts, heck the Switch alone is around 6k units off outselling the PS4 and X1 combined.

Also the X1 down to the 60k mark globally? that's pretty much a console on the way out, very much on the way out, it would now be very common knowledge even among those not too up on the sales of systems that it would be a poor investment right now to buy that system. Cascade sales drop in full effect. That is a 10k drop from last week for a system that's already selling tragically low numbers when you consider that it's got 2 different SKU's on the shelf with another one on the way with even less features. This E3 is going to need to start off with a large dish of humble pie and a very clear acknowledgement that the Xbox 1 was not what gamers wanted... that said, the Xbox1SAD is a closer step towards the original vision of what the X1 was going to be when it launched, no real ownership of games, less control of your device and also no backwards compatibility again which was lauded as one of the better features of the X1, now with the lack of disk drive completely back to square zero in that regard.

It's going to be a very long 19 months for MS, assuming the next gen Xbox arrives holiday 2020; there's really nothing that can be done for Xbone at this point, it's a sinking ship, but they are stuck with it until they can get a successor out...

colafitte said:

XBO is so dead that i still believe XBO won't reach 50M before their successor comes in 2020 (even if it comes in holiday 2020). Considering that, as time passes, i won't be surprised if Microsoft prefer to launch their next console during March 2020 to have an advantage against PS5 launching on the holiday season.

...but on the other hand, being out March 2020 poses a big risk of letting Sony get the upper hand by being able to tailor PS5 to counter what Xbox Two offers.

Medisti said:
Alex_The_Hedgehog said:

I'm glad I'm not the only one thinking that. Also, since PlayStation 5 will be backward compatible, waiting for it makes even more sense.

Well, if the person that wants to play PS4 games is Ok with waiting until the PS5 release, that is.

A lot of people are. There's even a term for it: The Osborne Effect. Though, that pertains specifically to announcing your new product too soon and killing sales of your current one. But the new product being confirmed ALWAYS has an impact.

PS5 was always "confirmed", we always knew there would be one. I don't think it'll start having any significant effect on PS4 sales until they actually properly reveal the thing.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 22 April 2019

colafitte said:
Switch is performing as expected. Nintendo is going to ship around 17'0M for the FY18, so Switch has to end around 35M shipped total by the end of March. If Switch has sold 33'0M to consumers by then there will be around 2'0M on shelves, in my opinion a little bit too much by this time of the year (althought perfectly possible). So this could mean three things: a) Switch is not going to reach the goal, b) Switch has sold to consumers more than VGC is showing, c) Switch is going to have that much units on shelves indeed and that will mean Switch is going to sell a lot more than last year in Q1 FY19 to consumers thanks to previous stock left available.

Wait, so you think that Switch shipments are going to be more than 900k below sell-through for this quarter? To reach 17.0M, Switch needs to ship 2.52M, and VGC shows sell-through of 3.46M for those 13 weeks.



curl-6 said:
Ganoncrotch said:

Whoa, Switch adjusted up while the other 2 machines getting adjusted down, based on those new numbers that would mean that Nintendo actually landed 21k more controllers into hands this week than the other 2 companies combined efforts, heck the Switch alone is around 6k units off outselling the PS4 and X1 combined.

Also the X1 down to the 60k mark globally? that's pretty much a console on the way out, very much on the way out, it would now be very common knowledge even among those not too up on the sales of systems that it would be a poor investment right now to buy that system. Cascade sales drop in full effect. That is a 10k drop from last week for a system that's already selling tragically low numbers when you consider that it's got 2 different SKU's on the shelf with another one on the way with even less features. This E3 is going to need to start off with a large dish of humble pie and a very clear acknowledgement that the Xbox 1 was not what gamers wanted... that said, the Xbox1SAD is a closer step towards the original vision of what the X1 was going to be when it launched, no real ownership of games, less control of your device and also no backwards compatibility again which was lauded as one of the better features of the X1, now with the lack of disk drive completely back to square zero in that regard.

It's going to be a very long 19 months for MS, assuming the next gen Xbox arrives holiday 2020; there's really nothing that can be done for Xbone at this point, it's a sinking ship, but they are stuck with it until they can get a successor out...

colafitte said:

XBO is so dead that i still believe XBO won't reach 50M before their successor comes in 2020 (even if it comes in holiday 2020). Considering that, as time passes, i won't be surprised if Microsoft prefer to launch their next console during March 2020 to have an advantage against PS5 launching on the holiday season.

...but on the other hand, being out March 2020 poses a big risk of letting Sony get the upper hand by being able to tailor PS5 to counter what Xbox Two offers.

Medisti said:

A lot of people are. There's even a term for it: The Osborne Effect. Though, that pertains specifically to announcing your new product too soon and killing sales of your current one. But the new product being confirmed ALWAYS has an impact.

PS5 was always "confirmed", we always knew there would be one. I don't think it'll start having any significant effect on PS4 sales until they actually properly reveal the thing.

You're obviously missing the point. Of course people knew a PS5 would come along eventually. But the fact that Sony talked about it is the same to some customers as saying "No reason to buy our current product because the new one is close."



Medisti said:
curl-6 said:

It's going to be a very long 19 months for MS, assuming the next gen Xbox arrives holiday 2020; there's really nothing that can be done for Xbone at this point, it's a sinking ship, but they are stuck with it until they can get a successor out...

...but on the other hand, being out March 2020 poses a big risk of letting Sony get the upper hand by being able to tailor PS5 to counter what Xbox Two offers.

PS5 was always "confirmed", we always knew there would be one. I don't think it'll start having any significant effect on PS4 sales until they actually properly reveal the thing.

You're obviously missing the point. Of course people knew a PS5 would come along eventually. But the fact that Sony talked about it is the same to some customers as saying "No reason to buy our current product because the new one is close."

They haven't revealed it though, they've just given some very scarce and vague comments, nothing to suggest it's imminent. That is not going to make people hold off on getting a PS4.



curl-6 said:
Medisti said:

You're obviously missing the point. Of course people knew a PS5 would come along eventually. But the fact that Sony talked about it is the same to some customers as saying "No reason to buy our current product because the new one is close."

They haven't revealed it though, they've just given some very scarce and vague comments, nothing to suggest it's imminent. That is not going to make people hold off on getting a PS4.

It will, though. Not as many as after the big reveal, but when your friend says "I heard the PS5 is gonna be revealed soon," you might decided to hold off until after you see what it is. Especially since it's apparently backwards-compatible.