By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - PS5>XB4>NS units sold next gen

predictors/variables are rather weak:

1. power - we've seen horse power has never been the deciding factor towards which console manufacturer comes out on top
2. future proof: other than the power argument, not sure there is anything else to it at this point in time (that we know of)
3. predecessor: while this is somewhat true for Sony (with the minor exception that is the PS3), we know that for a fact the previous gen's sales predicts rather poorly new console sales
4. NS & its lack of power/resolution, again, this goes back to point number 1. Also 4K TV these days support hdmi , so not sure why it is claimed that future TV's won't accept its input format, unless the OP meant that the NS's resolution is lower than what is supported by 4(and >)K TVs and as such NS sales will be adversely impacted. I don't think there is a consensus (or the vaguest clue for that matter) around this, not yet anyway

I would suggest wait till more info is available before making predictions, a few other predictors I can think of that might help more than the factors mentioned in the OG post:
price, price, price
ease of dev
targeted segment (the twin console era for example)
etc



Around the Network
kirby007 said:
Its crossgen so its sales need to be seperated as such

Separated for what? Is the Switch actually crossgen?

Does that mean the Switch's successor will also be included in this figure?

Why can't the Switch sales be compared to the PS5 and Nextbox without cutting them in half?

You do realize how much of a mess that will make things if we split up Switch sales. Maybe it looks simple from your perspective, but sales are used for many other things besides comparing consoles.



RolStoppable said:

Generations are defined by time.

Gen 7: DS, PSP, 360, PS3, Wii. Launched from 2004-2006.
Gen 8: 3DS, PSV, Wii U, PS4, XB1. Launched from 2011-2013.
Gen 9: Switch, PS5, XB4. Launched from 2017-2020.

Surely that makes a lot more sense than having gen 8 launches cover a period of six years (2011-2017) which is the length of a full generation already.

How about this instead:

Gen 7: DS, PSP, 360, PS3, Wii

Gen 8: 3DS, PSV, Wii U, XBO

Gen 8.5 (Or Gen 8 done right): PS4 Pro, Xbox One X, Switch

Gen 9: PS5, Scarlet, potentially Switch successor



I find it funny this comparison and the same arguments being thrown out every single time. But, the people that throw out these same arguments over and over, have missed the fact that they contradict each other or themselves now.

1 - The Switch will stop selling cause of the more powerful PS5 and Xbox Two.
2 - The Switch is not in competition with the PS4 and Xbox One, it's a handheld or its own thing.

The people who say both these things are right here, on this site. So what is it, is the Switch a direct competitor, or is it not going to be phased by the PS5 and Xbox Two?



JRPGfan said:
RolStoppable said:

Does Switch strike you as a half-step like the PS4 Pro and Xbox One X?

Wii U = 176 Gflops
Switch = 393 Gflops


PS4 = 1,840 Gflops
PS4pro = 4,200 Gflops

"Does Switch strike you as a half-step like the PS4 Pro and Xbox One X?"

By the numbers? yes. Its very much a half-step like the PS4Pro (smaller step up, than the PS4pro is).
But you sorta have a point anyways.... its not like their the same machines that play the same games, even though the switch did see alot of Wii U ports.

Well, when talking about gens, it is time that determines them, not power. If Nintendo continues with handhelds/hybrids, going by power alone, it will take them decades to reach Gen 9, which are probably going to be 10+ Tflops machines.  It's just a silly way to look at the market.  I think Nintendo will probably release a Switch Pro to lengthen the Switch's life, but even that would probably only hit ~1 Tflop.

And to be fair to the Switch, sure it's not that much more power than the Wii U, but like I said, it is also a handheld machine. It being twice as powerful is still pretty impressive. And consumers seem to think so, too. 



Around the Network
RolStoppable said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

How about this instead:

Gen 7: DS, PSP, 360, PS3, Wii

Gen 8: 3DS, PSV, Wii U, XBO

Gen 8.5 (Or Gen 8 done right): PS4 Pro, Xbox One X, Switch

Gen 9: PS5, Scarlet, potentially Switch successor

It's nonsensical.

Such a categorisation pretends that Switch is a minor upgrade from the 3DS and Wii U despite different branding, incompatible games and a new concept. The second error is that it views Switch as a stopgap console with the only purpose to serve as a bridge between gen 8 and gen 9, so the assumption one would have to hold is that Switch's successor will launch in 2020 or 2021 at the latest, because if Switch is not meant to compete with the PS5 and XB4, then Nintendo is not going to grant Sony and Microsoft a headstart of more than one year.

A situation where a headstart of more than one year is granted only occurs if the launch of a console has to be delayed for whatever reason or if a competitor isn't perceived as a real threat. Gen 6 provides such a scenario where the Dreamcast launched three years earlier than the GC and Xbox. In the GC's case, it launched later than originally planned, but Sega also wasn't taken serious anymore, so the launch timing that Nintendo was watching concerned the PS2. In gen 5 the Nintendo 64 launched about 18 months later than the Saturn and PS1, but only because the N64 launch was delayed twice.

Switch's situation is that it was not being taken serious as a home console competitor by Sony and Microsoft. Both companies are in steady contact with the major third party publishers, so they knew that not many games would be in development for Nintendo's new console. As a handheld competitor, neither Sony or Microsoft had any plans to launch a portable console. If Sony hadn't exited the handheld market and launched a PSV successor in 2016 where it was due, we would have had a new Nintendo and Sony console by 2017 and people wouldn't be so confused about the start of generation 9.

If Switch's successor doesn't launch by 2021, we will have to ask why Nintendo is granting Sony and Microsoft such a long headstart. Why do they allow Sony and Microsoft to establish a large installed base before they launch their own gen 9 console? The premise that Switch is not a gen 9 console results in a puzzle where the pieces don't fit together anymore.

One thing that people really should do is ask themself why they recognize the Dreamcast as gen 6 without any doubts despite everything that is being held against Switch applying to the Dreamcast to a much stronger degree. The Dreamcast launched early and was discontinued before all of the remaining gen 6 consoles launched, so it spent most of its lifecycle competing against the PS1 and N64. Still, nobody claims that the Dreamcast is gen 5 or 5.5.

Then how about the Wii U being 7th Gen? After all, it has more in common with the Pro/X than a new console: The chip is the same with some enhancements, the games all run on Wii U, the peripherals are the same (and both even came with a Wiimote in the box), it can (well, could now) run all downloaded games from the Wiiware, they kept the name and even the design almost the same. But I'm sure you gonna dismiss that because PS4/XBO launched just a year later, apparently invalidating everything else.

Switch is the same Gen as PS4/XBO, get over it.



Sales predictions for next gen, before we hear details of everyone's pricing scheme, are nothing more than wild guesses. There's also the issue if xcloud and stadia to further muddy the waters. There are just too many variables to estimate anything about the next gen at this point.



mZuzek said:
RolStoppable said:

Wii U games don't run on the Wii, that's why Wii U cannot be considered to be in the same generation as the Wii. By your logic, the PS2 would be in the same generation as the PS1, because the PS2 is compatible with PS1 controllers and games. That's not how it works. That's called backwards compatibility.

Not that I'm agreeing with Mr. 2 here, because he's blatantly wrong (besides, my Wii U sure didn't come with a Wiimote. I wish!), but...

Really? Because I got one with my Wii U.

Did the 8GB Version not come with one? Or How come?



I think so too. Xbox and ps5 will get gta6 next gen and switch will not. We all know gta is the biggest game franchise. Xbox one selling 50-60 million this gen without a new gta is very impressive. Im expecting the next xbox to sell at least 85m just like xbox 360



mZuzek said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Really? Because I got one with my Wii U.

Did the 8GB Version not come with one? Or How come?

I bought the 32GB, Wind Waker bundle. Came with a Wii Sensor Bar, but definitely not a Wiimote.

That's odd, I bought the original 32GB Bundle with Nintendoland, and that one had a Wiimote. Hence why I thought all Wii U came with a Wiimote, too.