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PS5>XB4>NS units sold next gen

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fatslob-:O said:

Haha, you just went off rails ... 

I don't consider it a win anyways when you won't admit you're wrongs ... 

There's no point where I would have to admit that I am wrong.

In regards to the question of generations, you've said that it's not definitive yet, so even by your logic Switch might be considered gen 9 eventually when its lifecycle is long enough.

In regards to Switch not competing in the home console market, you've been unable to provide proof for your claim. You like to refer to Switch as a handheld, but it's a $300 console with $60 games, both values being far above the typical prices of handhelds in the past. How do you explain why it sells so well?

In regards to the blue ocean point, you have argued based on the assumption that the Switch has no part in the home console market and must be viewed only in a handheld context, hence why you keep saying monopoly, but ignore the new value proposition of home console games being able to be played on the go on a whim; a value that puts Switch both in the home console and handheld market. What you need for this point is the proof that Switch is not competing in the home console market, but you don't have it.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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kirby007 said:

Why you ask?

Its quite simple really as seen in the interview the PS5 is build to be futureproof and has a solid predecessor in the PS4.

The XB4 in the other corner, is rumored to be weaker and doesnt have the same library and most games will be playable on pc anyway. Besides how strong will the brand be after the flipflop known as the XBO.

And then we have the NS a great console but so far behind the curve most tvs wont cater to its resolution in a few years. Doubtfull if even the NSpro will handle stable 1440p/60fps. And ofcourse half its sales have been made in the current gen.

Thus my expectation for next gen which will result saleswise in the order Ps5>xb4>nsw

The Xbox brand took a very big whooping this gen, it won't recover next gen. The fusion with PC and lack of great exclusives kinda guarantees another implosion. PS4>NS>XBox4



RolStoppable said:

There's no point where I would have to admit that I am wrong.

In regards to the question of generations, you've said that it's not definitive yet, so even by your logic Switch might be considered gen 9 eventually when its lifecycle is long enough.

Ding! Ding! 

Righto you are but for now the Switch is firmly joining the 8th generation ... 

RolStoppable said:

In regards to Switch not competing in the home console market, you've been unable to provide proof for your claim. You like to refer to Switch as a handheld, but it's a $300 console with $60 games, both values being far above the typical prices of handhelds in the past. How do you explain why it sells so well?

Pricing and system design are not mutually exclusive. For example, TurboExpress by NEC and N-Gage by Nokia both launched at $299 USD ...

As for why Switch is successful at that price point, you forget about inflation. Consumers typically do not keep the same pricing expectations for everything over time and that especially applies to electronics such as game consoles. Either Sony or Microsoft will come out successful regardless of a potential $499 USD launch price tag and I imagine that Nintendo will bump the price of their Switch successor by another $50 to a total of $349 USD ... 

RolStoppable said:

In regards to the blue ocean point, you have argued based on the assumption that the Switch has no part in the home console market and must be viewed only in a handheld context, hence why you keep saying monopoly, but ignore the new value proposition of home console games being able to be played on the go on a whim; a value that puts Switch both in the home console and handheld market. What you need for this point is the proof that Switch is not competing in the home console market, but you don't have it.

It's "new value proposition" doesn't seem to change the Switch's sales curve all that much since it's performing close enough to the 3DS which was nearly a monopoly back then as well. The Sega Nomad offered a similar concept to the Switch by being able to play "home console games" (whatever that means) on the go as well ... (both sound practically identical in terms of feature set on the high level) 

A portable console being able to play "home console games" (meaningless qualifier) is not a feature unique to the Switch ... 

Your argument of a "unique value proposition" in case of the Switch has NO real meaning since you have yet to truly differentiate between "home console games" and "portable console games" ... (just calling Switch games as "home console games" is not good enough to establish that the Switch is in direct competition to the PS4/X1 which are true home console designs in the sense of the definition) 



Pinkie_pie said:
DonFerrari said:

Surely would increase sales of SW as the owner of the console would still be alive to keep buying.

And did you explain how or why X1 would had 35M (over 65% of increase in LT) more sales because of GTA VI? You didn't. If PS4 received GTA VI then would it add 30M to LT and cross 150-160M sales or would it add 65% sales and near 200M sales? Or GTA improves only Xbox sales?

Microsoft screwed up xbox one from the start. I never said xbox one would sell 80 million with gta6. Maybe around 70m. im expecting the next xbox to sell 80m+ because of gta6 and microsoft wouldnt mess up the announcement again. 

Ok so another 25M on X1 due to GTA6... so how much more would PS4 sell because of GTA 6?

You seem to forget that X360 achieved 85M no only by making everything right (besides RROD, but that didn't really dropped the sales from what we can see on graphics) and Sony fucking up everything. X1 will sell about 50M after making blunders but correcting most of it withing 6 months (instead of 3+ years that Sony needed to make PS3 both cost competitive and with third party performance) and Sony making most things right. I don't know why do you think they will achieve the same 80+M without Sony fucking up.

RolStoppable said:
fatslob-:O said:

Haha, you just went off rails ... 

I don't consider it a win anyways when you won't admit you're wrongs ... 

There's no point where I would have to admit that I am wrong.

In regards to the question of generations, you've said that it's not definitive yet, so even by your logic Switch might be considered gen 9 eventually when its lifecycle is long enough.

In regards to Switch not competing in the home console market, you've been unable to provide proof for your claim. You like to refer to Switch as a handheld, but it's a $300 console with $60 games, both values being far above the typical prices of handhelds in the past. How do you explain why it sells so well?

In regards to the blue ocean point, you have argued based on the assumption that the Switch has no part in the home console market and must be viewed only in a handheld context, hence why you keep saying monopoly, but ignore the new value proposition of home console games being able to be played on the go on a whim; a value that puts Switch both in the home console and handheld market. What you need for this point is the proof that Switch is not competing in the home console market, but you don't have it.

The PS3 wasn't a home console since at the time a 599 device wasn't a typical price for console.

fatslob-:O said:
RolStoppable said:

There's no point where I would have to admit that I am wrong.

In regards to the question of generations, you've said that it's not definitive yet, so even by your logic Switch might be considered gen 9 eventually when its lifecycle is long enough.

Ding! Ding! 

Righto you are but for now the Switch is firmly joining the 8th generation ... 

RolStoppable said:

In regards to Switch not competing in the home console market, you've been unable to provide proof for your claim. You like to refer to Switch as a handheld, but it's a $300 console with $60 games, both values being far above the typical prices of handhelds in the past. How do you explain why it sells so well?

Pricing and system design are not mutually exclusive. For example, TurboExpress by NEC and N-Gage by Nokia both launched at $299 USD ...

As for why Switch is successful at that price point, you forget about inflation. Consumers typically do not keep the same pricing expectations for everything over time and that especially applies to electronics such as game consoles. Either Sony or Microsoft will come out successful regardless of a potential $499 USD launch price tag and I imagine that Nintendo will bump the price of their Switch successor by another $50 to a total of $349 USD ... 

RolStoppable said:

In regards to the blue ocean point, you have argued based on the assumption that the Switch has no part in the home console market and must be viewed only in a handheld context, hence why you keep saying monopoly, but ignore the new value proposition of home console games being able to be played on the go on a whim; a value that puts Switch both in the home console and handheld market. What you need for this point is the proof that Switch is not competing in the home console market, but you don't have it.

It's "new value proposition" doesn't seem to change the Switch's sales curve all that much since it's performing close enough to the 3DS which was nearly a monopoly back then as well. The Sega Nomad offered a similar concept to the Switch by being able to play "home console games" (whatever that means) on the go as well ... (both sound practically identical in terms of feature set on the high level) 

A portable console being able to play "home console games" (meaningless qualifier) is not a feature unique to the Switch ... 

Your argument of a "unique value proposition" in case of the Switch has NO real meaning since you have yet to truly differentiate between "home console games" and "portable console games" ... (just calling Switch games as "home console games" is not good enough to establish that the Switch is in direct competition to the PS4/X1 which are true home console designs in the sense of the definition) 

Not to forget that PSP and PSVita proposition were also "console level games on the go" even if the native games weren't the same disc or game on console. Still you could have pairing of console with HH to "stream" the game, and also could connect the HH to the TV.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

fatslob-:O said:
RolStoppable said:

There's no point where I would have to admit that I am wrong.

In regards to the question of generations, you've said that it's not definitive yet, so even by your logic Switch might be considered gen 9 eventually when its lifecycle is long enough.

Ding! Ding! 

Righto you are but for now the Switch is firmly joining the 8th generation ... 

RolStoppable said:

In regards to Switch not competing in the home console market, you've been unable to provide proof for your claim. You like to refer to Switch as a handheld, but it's a $300 console with $60 games, both values being far above the typical prices of handhelds in the past. How do you explain why it sells so well?

Pricing and system design are not mutually exclusive. For example, TurboExpress by NEC and N-Gage by Nokia both launched at $299 USD ...

As for why Switch is successful at that price point, you forget about inflation. Consumers typically do not keep the same pricing expectations for everything over time and that especially applies to electronics such as game consoles. Either Sony or Microsoft will come out successful regardless of a potential $499 USD launch price tag and I imagine that Nintendo will bump the price of their Switch successor by another $50 to a total of $349 USD ... 

RolStoppable said:

In regards to the blue ocean point, you have argued based on the assumption that the Switch has no part in the home console market and must be viewed only in a handheld context, hence why you keep saying monopoly, but ignore the new value proposition of home console games being able to be played on the go on a whim; a value that puts Switch both in the home console and handheld market. What you need for this point is the proof that Switch is not competing in the home console market, but you don't have it.

It's "new value proposition" doesn't seem to change the Switch's sales curve all that much since it's performing close enough to the 3DS which was nearly a monopoly back then as well. The Sega Nomad offered a similar concept to the Switch by being able to play "home console games" (whatever that means) on the go as well ... (both sound practically identical in terms of feature set on the high level) 

A portable console being able to play "home console games" (meaningless qualifier) is not a feature unique to the Switch ... 

Your argument of a "unique value proposition" in case of the Switch has NO real meaning since you have yet to truly differentiate between "home console games" and "portable console games" ... (just calling Switch games as "home console games" is not good enough to establish that the Switch is in direct competition to the PS4/X1 which are true home console designs in the sense of the definition) 

1. Indeed, I am right. Grouping Switch gen 8 is premature, especially because Switch is trending for a long lifespan.

2. Handhelds that launched at $300 and failed don't work as a way to argue that Switch is a handheld.

Inflation can't be a factor when all previous handhelds had to be priced below $200 to gain real traction. Switch is selling better at $300 than handhelds did at $200, plus the game prices went up significantly as well, from previously $40 to $60. A 33% increase in price in both areas from one generation to the next (or as you argue, within the same generation) can't be pinned down on inflation.

3. You are using the same fallacy that you've used in previous years. You think that Switch and the 3DS are performing similarly, but as usual you ignore the context. Switch is outpacing the 3DS despite the latter having a significant price drop and a revision during the same timeframe. This fallacy has been explained to you in 2017, you didn't want to believe it, time proved you wrong. This fallacy has been explained to you in 2018, you still didn't want to believe it, time proved you wrong again. And given what the actual sales trajectory is, you will be proven wrong in 2019 again. It's utterly predictable.

The Nomad isn't similar to Switch. Remember, when the topic of value proposition first came up, I said that Switch allows consumers to play home console games on the go while those games are still new; that's the differentiating factor of Switch. The Nomad and Turbo Express played games that were several years old and the market didn't care about that. You might as well say that the 3DS is similar to Switch because of Ocarina of Time 3D, but there's a huge difference between playing an old home console game on a portable console or being able to play Breath of the Wild that way from day 1. I am curious if you proceed to argue that Breath of the Wild can't be considered a home console game; if you are going to proceed to call the likes of Super Mario Odyssey, Splatoon 2 and Xenoblade Chronicles 2 handheld games.

It's ridiculously easy to determine whether Switch is a home console that can go portable or a handheld that connects to the TV. All one has to do is look at the console-defining games. Those titles have the scale of home console games and they play like what people have come to expect from home console games.

That's why it all comes down to one single question that you can answer with a 'yes' or 'no': Is Breath of the Wild a home console game?



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

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How can the xbox come in second, there is no possibility at all except for PR, NOTHING else points to a comback, NOTHING :D



Ultr said:
How can the xbox come in second, there is no possibility at all except for PR, NOTHING else points to a comback, NOTHING :D

Only by unfairly splitting the Switch sales between two generations like the op wants to do.  Why not go by total sales who knows?  Total sales matters the most and not some bullshit split generation comparison.  Even then Switch might still outperform XB4. 



sethnintendo said:
Ultr said:
How can the xbox come in second, there is no possibility at all except for PR, NOTHING else points to a comback, NOTHING :D

Only by unfairly splitting the Switch sales between two generations like the op wants to do.  Why not go by total sales who knows?  Total sales matters the most and not some bullshit split generation comparison.  Even then Switch might still outperform XB4. 

You can also split sales between it being HH and console so they can have X1 winning against Switch. It all depends on how much you want to torture data =p



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Can someone explain why it is important if Switch is 8th or 9th gen and why it is important if Switch is in the handheld, home console or hybrid market?

Would it make sense to make it the "Poll of the Week" and be done with it? Considering that the site is dominated by Nintendo fans, I guess everyone should be able to live with the result.

Switch is:
8th gen handheld
8th gen home console
8th gen hybrid console
9th gen handheld
9th gen home console
9th gen hybrid console



Replicant said:

Can someone explain why it is important if Switch is 8th or 9th gen and why it is important if Switch is in the handheld, home console or hybrid market?

(...)

fatslob has noticed a good while ago that a specific method provides great leeway to posting, so he uses it to assume stances that he does not necessarily believe in, and he does so in order to target specific people. What looks like something that is important is ultimately only a game between two people. I choose to play it because the decrease in overall site activity has led to a lower number of threads, but I am in the mood to post more often. If you go back to the earlier posts of this long exchange, you'll find me saying that I know that it's an act by fatslob.

fatslob's motivation is probably best explained by himself, but I suspect that he holds a grudge against me for a variety of reasons. Unlike with many other people that hold a grudge against me, I have a hard time to narrow it down to a single reason in his case.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club