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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS5>XB4>NS units sold next gen

DonFerrari said:
Pinkie_pie said:

I could swear gta5 released last gen for the ps3 and 360. I said new as in a gta after gta5

GTA didn't dictate the success or fail of PS3 or PS4. You are just trying an arbitrary game to decide that it would make Xbox next win. X360 and X1 had GTAs and none have won. X360 was third, and if one consider Switch part of gen 8 and console X1 would be third as well, if not it would be second. So using your points having 2 new GTAs X360 finished last, without new GTA X1 finished second, so by this we can conclude that if GTA doesn't release at all Xbox4 will win. That is the type of conclusion you are making.

I never said next xbox would come first. Please read carefully



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JRPGfan said:
Hiku said:

Look what the lack of bears did for PS4. They shipped PS4 without including a grizzly bear in the package, preventing you from getting mauled when you open it, and it will pass 100m this year.

Its confirmed..... not shipping a bear along with a console, increases sales!

Surely would increase sales of SW as the owner of the console would still be alive to keep buying.

Pinkie_pie said:
DonFerrari said:

GTA didn't dictate the success or fail of PS3 or PS4. You are just trying an arbitrary game to decide that it would make Xbox next win. X360 and X1 had GTAs and none have won. X360 was third, and if one consider Switch part of gen 8 and console X1 would be third as well, if not it would be second. So using your points having 2 new GTAs X360 finished last, without new GTA X1 finished second, so by this we can conclude that if GTA doesn't release at all Xbox4 will win. That is the type of conclusion you are making.

I never said next xbox would come first. Please read carefully

And did you explain how or why X1 would had 35M (over 65% of increase in LT) more sales because of GTA VI? You didn't. If PS4 received GTA VI then would it add 30M to LT and cross 150-160M sales or would it add 65% sales and near 200M sales? Or GTA improves only Xbox sales?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:
JRPGfan said:

Its confirmed..... not shipping a bear along with a console, increases sales!

Surely would increase sales of SW as the owner of the console would still be alive to keep buying.

Pinkie_pie said:

I never said next xbox would come first. Please read carefully

And did you explain how or why X1 would had 35M (over 65% of increase in LT) more sales because of GTA VI? You didn't. If PS4 received GTA VI then would it add 30M to LT and cross 150-160M sales or would it add 65% sales and near 200M sales? Or GTA improves only Xbox sales?

Microsoft screwed up xbox one from the start. I never said xbox one would sell 80 million with gta6. Maybe around 70m. im expecting the next xbox to sell 80m+ because of gta6 and microsoft wouldnt mess up the announcement again. 



Pinkie_pie said:
DonFerrari said:

Surely would increase sales of SW as the owner of the console would still be alive to keep buying.

And did you explain how or why X1 would had 35M (over 65% of increase in LT) more sales because of GTA VI? You didn't. If PS4 received GTA VI then would it add 30M to LT and cross 150-160M sales or would it add 65% sales and near 200M sales? Or GTA improves only Xbox sales?

Microsoft screwed up xbox one from the start. I never said xbox one would sell 80 million with gta6. Maybe around 70m. im expecting the next xbox to sell 80m+ because of gta6 and microsoft wouldnt mess up the announcement again. 

Isn't Rockstar going to drop Bully 2 before GTA 6?  I thought I heard that somewhere that they were focused on making a sequel to Bully before GTA.  If that is the case then you might be waiting awhile for GTA 6.  Even if not the case Rockstar likes to take their damn time on GTA these days.



RolStoppable said:

The NPD Group puts the sales and revenue numbers they report into different categories, such as home consoles, handhelds, PC, and mobile. Since the very beginning they've put Switch into the home console category. Hence why NPD's analyst for video game sales, Mat Piscatella, splits the pie for yearly market share in his analyses and predictions between the PS4, XB1 and Switch whereas a handheld console like the 3DS exists in its own space and doesn't have any % of market share in the home console market.

Feel free to ask people who follow NPD sales about this. They'll all confirm that to you.

@Bold They used to do this but since the Switch's release they've been ambiguous about it's identity thus far ... 

Still not going to take your word for it since I doubt Mat Piscatella will respond to such a specific inquiry so you still carry the burden of proof in the end ... 



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RolStoppable said:

What's ambiguous about it? Previously you claimed that a PC is as much of a competitor as Switch, but NPD's market share breakdown includes Switch, but not the PC.

market share breakdown =/= identity implication 

It's not like one could track PC hardware sales that easily ... (NPD stopped being specific about the 'type' of consoles)



RolStoppable said:

Google searches bring up results where Piscatella calls Switch a hybrid console, so a console that is in the home and handheld market at the same time. Remember what our claims have been.

Mine: Switch is the successor to both the Wii U and 3DS, so it's in the home console and handheld market.
Yours: Switch does not compete in the home console market.

I have not made an appeal to authority, so the NPD Group's stance is not a confirmation for my claim, but rather it does not contradict my claim. I had rejected the assertion that the industry gets to dictate what is what, because they are inconsistent among themselves.

You, however, made an appeal to authority and the NPD Group which you cited contradicts your claim. You can argue that there is ambiguity all you want, but it's clear that the NPD Group does not support your claim.

Let's get this out of the way, rol ... 

Mat Piscatella =/= NPD Group 

Nearly all of the google searches turned out negative because of article writer reporting ... (this is probably why you can't point out to a solid source for this)

I've only ever seen Mat short of inferring the Switch as a hybrid once in a personal forum post on an account that's been long since deleted. I've seen ZERO NPD reports that makes such a clear distinction and even when Mat speaks during press release on behalf of the NPD Group, he's NEVER publicly set record straight on what they classify the Switch to be ... (they likely never will either)

I'm still waiting for you to somehow prove that the Switch is 9th gen and somehow "blue ocean" instead of a regular monopoly but as always with your exceptionalist stance with Nintendo, another symptom derived from it which is deflection ...



RolStoppable said:

Do you really want to continue to go in circles? We might be better off by talking about a different topic altogether, because I can't see this discussion moving any inch further.

One thing that caught my attention when I read through your PMs was your suggestion that only people of high enough intellect and physical ability should be allowed to procreate and you expressed sadness that such a law would be nearly impossible to pass because too many people would argue ethical reasons.

It's an interesting idea.

Haha, you just went off rails ... 

I don't consider it a win anyways when you won't admit you're wrongs ... 



kirby007 said:

Why you ask?

Its quite simple really as seen in the interview the PS5 is build to be futureproof and has a solid predecessor in the PS4.

The XB4 in the other corner, is rumored to be weaker and doesnt have the same library and most games will be playable on pc anyway. Besides how strong will the brand be after the flipflop known as the XBO.

And then we have the NS a great console but so far behind the curve most tvs wont cater to its resolution in a few years. Doubtfull if even the NSpro will handle stable 1440p/60fps. And ofcourse half its sales have been made in the current gen.

Thus my expectation for next gen which will result saleswise in the order Ps5>xb4>nsw

The Xbox brand took a very big whooping this gen, it won't recover next gen. The fusion with PC and lack of great exclusives kinda guarantees another implosion. PS4>NS>XBox4



RolStoppable said:

There's no point where I would have to admit that I am wrong.

In regards to the question of generations, you've said that it's not definitive yet, so even by your logic Switch might be considered gen 9 eventually when its lifecycle is long enough.

Ding! Ding! 

Righto you are but for now the Switch is firmly joining the 8th generation ... 

RolStoppable said:

In regards to Switch not competing in the home console market, you've been unable to provide proof for your claim. You like to refer to Switch as a handheld, but it's a $300 console with $60 games, both values being far above the typical prices of handhelds in the past. How do you explain why it sells so well?

Pricing and system design are not mutually exclusive. For example, TurboExpress by NEC and N-Gage by Nokia both launched at $299 USD ...

As for why Switch is successful at that price point, you forget about inflation. Consumers typically do not keep the same pricing expectations for everything over time and that especially applies to electronics such as game consoles. Either Sony or Microsoft will come out successful regardless of a potential $499 USD launch price tag and I imagine that Nintendo will bump the price of their Switch successor by another $50 to a total of $349 USD ... 

RolStoppable said:

In regards to the blue ocean point, you have argued based on the assumption that the Switch has no part in the home console market and must be viewed only in a handheld context, hence why you keep saying monopoly, but ignore the new value proposition of home console games being able to be played on the go on a whim; a value that puts Switch both in the home console and handheld market. What you need for this point is the proof that Switch is not competing in the home console market, but you don't have it.

It's "new value proposition" doesn't seem to change the Switch's sales curve all that much since it's performing close enough to the 3DS which was nearly a monopoly back then as well. The Sega Nomad offered a similar concept to the Switch by being able to play "home console games" (whatever that means) on the go as well ... (both sound practically identical in terms of feature set on the high level) 

A portable console being able to play "home console games" (meaningless qualifier) is not a feature unique to the Switch ... 

Your argument of a "unique value proposition" in case of the Switch has NO real meaning since you have yet to truly differentiate between "home console games" and "portable console games" ... (just calling Switch games as "home console games" is not good enough to establish that the Switch is in direct competition to the PS4/X1 which are true home console designs in the sense of the definition)