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Global Hardware 16 March 2019

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zorg1000 said:
DonFerrari said:

The beggining of this year had better games legs from holiday and PS4 at a little weaker position than last year, that helps out a lot the up average of Switch. But to have 30% increase on holidays will be a lot harder.

I never once said I expected holidays to be up 30%, he said that Japan is the only place notably up YoY, I told him that US is as well.

Understood.

Then I misunderstood your intent.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

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I expecting switch do 25 million + this year. Based on Animal Crossing and Pokémon.

And 30 million + due to the revisions coming.



BlackBeauty said:

I expecting switch do 25 million + this year. Based on Animal Crossing and Pokémon.

And 30 million + due to the revisions coming.

Ya that's not happening. That's peak DS numbers and the gaming landscape has changed since then.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

BlackBeauty said:

I expecting switch do 25 million + this year. Based on Animal Crossing and Pokémon.

And 30 million + due to the revisions coming.

I can see 25m+ pretty easily.  Beyond that Nintendo needs to be able to make enough supply to sell 30m or more.  It might happen.  Depends on how much confidence Nintendo has in their product.

Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 30 March 2019

Is the switch up YOY again



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craighopkins said:

Is the switch up YOY again

Yes, last year was 191,852



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

DonFerrari said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

2M is probably the difference in December alone with Pokemon and Animal Crossing. And even with just Pokemon, it should still do that difference.

Last year the PS4 lagged over 2M behind in December already (2.07M according to VGChartz), so how do you expect this year to do any less than that?

It is quite possible that by October the difference is less than 2M, but during the last 2-3 months the Switch should massively outsell the PS4.

Didn't say it will sell closer to 2M gap than to 5M, I said that is less likely that the gap will be 5M than 2M. Probably something like 3-4 is more likely.

The beggining of this year had better games legs from holiday and PS4 at a little weaker position than last year, that helps out a lot the up average of Switch. But to have 30% increase on holidays will be a lot harder.

To reach those 3-4M then Switch may not outsell the PS4 by more than 1-2M through October, and sell on par in November, as the 2M gap in December will certainly happen again.

I seriously doubt that to be the case, even with a pricecut for the PS4 and no pricecut or revision for the Switch.

Switch is selling without any releases on par with the PS4 with big releases (like, The Division 2 this week for instance). This can go on until Super Mario Maker 2, where Nintendo starts shifting into higher gear this year. Come summer, and the slew of Switch releases and nothing big on PS4 side will make the gap grow pretty fast during summer and fall, before the PS4 getting trashed by the Switch during the holidays.



zorg1000 said:
colafitte said:

There were some deals in various part of the world, while PS4 only is having some in Japan. That was my point but i can't give you the details now, because again i was talking from memory of what happened in Jan and Feb. And it has to do with shipments, not only in this case with Switch but with every console because when there's more stock left than necessary you sell those with some deals to take advantage of that stock left. In this case, it's obvious Switch had a lot left after Q3 and if they want to reach that 17'5M shipment for fiscal year it's more than obvious why.

As for factoring a price cut for PS4 and not for Switch, it's because the more Switch sells, the less i think Nintendo is going to do a price cut. That's good news (for Nintendo as a company of course), not a bad one. As for a revision, until it's officialy announced i won't base predictions on rumors. If they happen eventually i will adapt, but not before. Too much rumors in the past that never became true...

Which various parts of the world? The only I know of were in North America.

There really isnt anything that suggests Switch was over shipped last quarter, the shipped vs sold difference at the end of 2018 was lower than PS4 in 2016, 2017 & about the same as 2018.

Your last paragraph is a contradiction, you wont count predictions/rumors for Switch but will gladly accept them for PS4 because a price cut for PS4 is nothing more than a prediction. You cant accept them for one console but disregard them for another when trying to make an unbiased analysis.

I will give up my first point on deals because despite remember reading there was deals for Switch in various places in the west during Jan and Feb i am too lazy to search in the internet to prove my point. So let's say i was not right on this.

I wasn't trying to say Switch was overshipped. It was correctly shipped due to time and circunstances. Every console that is very succesful in Q3 has around 2-3M left in stock. It happened to every other succesful console and it happens in other markets with other procuts too. When you had so much stock left, you have to sell it and it's very common that companies use very good deals during some points in the year to sell that stock. I just think that Nintendo to reach their goal for FY, they used those deals (that i can't prove anyway because i am lazy) and that's is why Switch sold so good during Jan and Feb. But that's just my impression, nothing more.

As for the last point. It was not a contradiction. What i meant to say is....that if i was in charge of Nintendo and Sony, i will not make a price cut for Switch because it'ss selling according to plan and even better than expected but i'll do it for PS4 because i think the sales are going to be lower than desired. Neither decision is based in rumors about future, i am just reading the sales numbers right now and anticipating what's going to happen.



zorg1000 said:
DonFerrari said:

The beggining of this year had better games legs from holiday and PS4 at a little weaker position than last year, that helps out a lot the up average of Switch. But to have 30% increase on holidays will be a lot harder.

I never once said I expected holidays to be up 30%, he said that Japan is the only place notably up YoY, I told him that US is as well.

In my defense, i never saind Japan was the "only place notably up YOY". i Just said that if Switch is 2'98M in 2019 compared to 2'33M in 2018, is thanks because "mostly" Japan because it has sold 200-300k more this year than last (as for last MC numbers, exactly 263k more than last year, a 41% growth YOY), so almost half the growth comes from Japan. But that doesn't mean it didn't grow in USA too, just not that much.

Last edited by colafitte - on 31 March 2019

Bofferbrauer2 said:
DonFerrari said:

Didn't say it will sell closer to 2M gap than to 5M, I said that is less likely that the gap will be 5M than 2M. Probably something like 3-4 is more likely.

The beggining of this year had better games legs from holiday and PS4 at a little weaker position than last year, that helps out a lot the up average of Switch. But to have 30% increase on holidays will be a lot harder.

To reach those 3-4M then Switch may not outsell the PS4 by more than 1-2M through October, and sell on par in November, as the 2M gap in December will certainly happen again.

I seriously doubt that to be the case, even with a pricecut for the PS4 and no pricecut or revision for the Switch.

Switch is selling without any releases on par with the PS4 with big releases (like, The Division 2 this week for instance). This can go on until Super Mario Maker 2, where Nintendo starts shifting into higher gear this year. Come summer, and the slew of Switch releases and nothing big on PS4 side will make the gap grow pretty fast during summer and fall, before the PS4 getting trashed by the Switch during the holidays.

Sorry but a sequel of The Division isn't a big game or something that pushes HW up for any notable amount. Smash and Let's go tail push more HW than it. I would say that Oddissey and Zelda as evergreen they seem to be also push more than The Division 2.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994