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Japan sales week 12, March 18-24, 2019 (media create) - final week... not yet

Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan sales week 12, March 18-24, 2019 (media create) - final week... not yet

HoangNhatAnh said:
Kerotan said:

It's a figure of speech. If you were around in 2014/15 this number was doubted by almost everybody except me. I took so much shit for saying 8m was the minimum and I'd hopes it would do 10m+. 

So you can't provide he proof, got it.

If you were a regular in the mediacreate threads back in 2014 you'd know what I mean. Most thought the Vita and Wii U would outsell it too. 

OTBWY said:
Kerotan said:
It's quite fitting that the last ever mediacreate has the ps4 hitting the 8m milestone. Remember folks, 90% around here doubted that number. It beats the ps3 to 9m aligned too so can't wait for that. Rip.

Wasn't your original projection 10 million?

I said 10m and that 8m was the absolutely bare minimum it could reach. It's now passed that and there's plenty of time left for it to reach 10m now. 

TruckOSaurus said:
Kerotan said:

It's a figure of speech. If you were around in 2014/15 this number was doubted by almost everybody except me. I took so much shit for saying 8m was the minimum and I'd hopes it would do 10m+. 

According to this poll ( http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=214889 ), 50% of people were in the 10m+ camp, 66% in the 8m+ camp.

That's from march 2016 when it's fortunes had turned around. Let's find a thread from summer 2014 or 2015. 

I see my "OneKartVita" account was having an argument with a ninty fan about how Monster Hunter could come in future. I look very smart now in hindsight. Prophetic!

I'm going to take a look for a summer 2014/15 ps4 prediction thread so all help appreciate. Even a weekly mediacreate thread where it was discussed would be nice. 



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Kerotan said:
TruckOSaurus said:

According to this poll ( http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=214889 ), 50% of people were in the 10m+ camp, 66% in the 8m+ camp.

That's from march 2016 when it's fortunes had turned around. Let's find a thread from summer 2014 or 2015. 

I see my "OneKartVita" account was having an argument with a ninty fan about how Monster Hunter could come in future. I look very smart now in hindsight. Prophetic!

I'm going to take a look for a summer 2014/15 ps4 prediction thread so all help appreciate. Even a weekly mediacreate thread where it was discussed would be nice. 

When fortunes had turned around, you predicted 9-10m.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=7819371

That image you want to paint yourself with simply isn't true. At that point in time the PS4 was tracking above the PS3 and you still predicted the PS4 to fall short of PS3 lifetime sales.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

So I did a bit of digging back to 2014 and 2015. Here's a few posts from a few regular members

May 2014.
Tbone: minimum 4m - max 8m. This kind of prediction from his wasn't seen as unusual and was actually more generous then many posters gave it. The ps4 has now passed that 8m max and will go a good bit higher.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6336857

Eric Fabian thought it was delusional to think the ps4 would sell like the ps3. Not so delusional after all since ps4 is 600k above ps3 aligned and will easily beat it to 9m aligned.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6337031

Kupo thought the ps4 doomed to fail and the Wii U would stay ahead.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6337107

Nintendopie found it awkward the faith some had in the ps4.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6337202

The above are from 1 thread in May 2014. That summer stuck with me because the amount of posters who were not playstation fans that constantly doubted the potential of the ps4. All because of a slow start. It was 10 times worse on neogaf however then here.

I'm going to post this now while I look for more threads from that era.



zorg1000 said:
Shadow1980 said:
Was it confirmed that MC will stop making hardware data public, too, or is it just software data?

Hardware & software

I see. That sucks. It kind of messes with everything I have in my database. I may end up just going with Famitsu for the whole year because of the differences in their tracking:

After Week 1 it doesn't look too bad, until you take away Week 1 to increase the resolution of the vertical axis:

Overall, here's the percent differences between MC and Famitsu so far for this year:

A lot of those differences are not trivial. They may not be quite as noticeable in a complete chart of yearly figures, but they still exist, and in some weeks it can mean a difference of quite a few pixels on a chart, and I get kind of OCD over that.

Overall, Famitsu's YTD numbers for the Switch and PS4 are 1.8% and 3.5% higher than MC's, respectively. If you take out Week 1, though, then Famitsu's numbers are 0.44% and 1.34% lower than MC's. So, there's not as big of a difference in Famitsu vs. MC when it comes to YTD sales compared to what we see in individual weeks, but the difference is there.



Kerotan said:
So I did a bit of digging back to 2014 and 2015. Here's a few posts from a few regular members

May 2014.
Tbone: minimum 4m - max 8m. This kind of prediction from his wasn't seen as unusual and was actually more generous then many posters gave it. The ps4 has now passed that 8m max and will go a good bit higher.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6336857

Eric Fabian thought it was delusional to think the ps4 would sell like the ps3. Not so delusional after all since ps4 is 600k above ps3 aligned and will easily beat it to 9m aligned.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6337031

Kupo thought the ps4 doomed to fail and the Wii U would stay ahead.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6337107

Nintendopie found it awkward the faith some had in the ps4.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6337202

The above are from 1 thread in May 2014. That summer stuck with me because the amount of posters who were not playstation fans that constantly doubted the potential of the ps4. All because of a slow start. It was 10 times worse on neogaf however then here.

I'm going to post this now while I look for more threads from that era.

4 people



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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Kerotan said:
So I did a bit of digging back to 2014 and 2015. Here's a few posts from a few regular members

May 2014.
Tbone: minimum 4m - max 8m. This kind of prediction from his wasn't seen as unusual and was actually more generous then many posters gave it. The ps4 has now passed that 8m max and will go a good bit higher.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6336857

Eric Fabian thought it was delusional to think the ps4 would sell like the ps3. Not so delusional after all since ps4 is 600k above ps3 aligned and will easily beat it to 9m aligned.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6337031

Kupo thought the ps4 doomed to fail and the Wii U would stay ahead.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6337107

Nintendopie found it awkward the faith some had in the ps4.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6337202

The above are from 1 thread in May 2014. That summer stuck with me because the amount of posters who were not playstation fans that constantly doubted the potential of the ps4. All because of a slow start. It was 10 times worse on neogaf however then here.

I'm going to post this now while I look for more threads from that era.

Can we celebrate the last ever MC thread and PS4's achievement without being extremely toxic, gloating, and ruining our last ever historic thread?



I said 10m and that 8m was the absolutely bare minimum it could reach. It's now passed that and there's plenty of time left for it to reach 10m now. 

Well. I have my doubts.

Either way, the Switch is gonna crush that number and pass the PS4 with ease in Japan. I think we can all agree with that. We shall see what effect it will have on PS4s longevity there.



Kerotan said:
So I did a bit of digging back to 2014 and 2015. Here's a few posts from a few regular members

May 2014.
Tbone: minimum 4m - max 8m. This kind of prediction from his wasn't seen as unusual and was actually more generous then many posters gave it. The ps4 has now passed that 8m max and will go a good bit higher.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6336857

Eric Fabian thought it was delusional to think the ps4 would sell like the ps3. Not so delusional after all since ps4 is 600k above ps3 aligned and will easily beat it to 9m aligned.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6337031

Kupo thought the ps4 doomed to fail and the Wii U would stay ahead.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6337107

Nintendopie found it awkward the faith some had in the ps4.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6337202

The above are from 1 thread in May 2014. That summer stuck with me because the amount of posters who were not playstation fans that constantly doubted the potential of the ps4. All because of a slow start. It was 10 times worse on neogaf however then here.

I'm going to post this now while I look for more threads from that era.

Doesn't change your prediction: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=7819371



HoangNhatAnh said:
Kerotan said:
So I did a bit of digging back to 2014 and 2015. Here's a few posts from a few regular members

May 2014.
Tbone: minimum 4m - max 8m. This kind of prediction from his wasn't seen as unusual and was actually more generous then many posters gave it. The ps4 has now passed that 8m max and will go a good bit higher.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6336857

Eric Fabian thought it was delusional to think the ps4 would sell like the ps3. Not so delusional after all since ps4 is 600k above ps3 aligned and will easily beat it to 9m aligned.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6337031

Kupo thought the ps4 doomed to fail and the Wii U would stay ahead.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6337107

Nintendopie found it awkward the faith some had in the ps4.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6337202

The above are from 1 thread in May 2014. That summer stuck with me because the amount of posters who were not playstation fans that constantly doubted the potential of the ps4. All because of a slow start. It was 10 times worse on neogaf however then here.

I'm going to post this now while I look for more threads from that era.

Doesn't change your prediction: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=7819371

In that very same thread I said it could pass the ps3 if a mainline Monster Hunter lands on the ps4 and I thought Sony would at least be trying to get it.

So pre MH announcement I went with 9 to 10m and if it got Monster Hunter it could beat the ps3. Spot on from myself. Didn't predict everything exactly but I thought it could get 9-10m without MH and beat ps3 with it. 

"And it's in Sony's best interests.  A console with DQ11 + spin offs, FF15, KH3, FF7R, GTA 6 and a monster hunter mainline entry (shared with handheld)  + spin offs is going to do very well in Japan.  Couple with series like yakuza,  resident evil,  gran turismo,  Persona 5 etc etc and it really would have a chance at passing the ps3. 

Sony aren't dumb and their relationship with capcom has improved greatly.  I struggle to see them not getting in on the monster hunter action.  Only way of it not happening is if Nintendo pay big bucks for exclusivity"



Here's a thread from February 2015. Now the ps4's fortunes had changed at this point and the Doom of 2014 wasn't as strong but you can clearly see a big divide on this site. Mostly playstation fans still believed it could do ps3 numbers and non playstation fans didn't. Have a read through this. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=198798&page=1

Kykestrutt:
Definitely not matching the ps3.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=7101985
Ps4 won't get close to the ps3.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=7102128

Miyamotoo:
No chance ps4 will match the ps3
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=7102043

Ryng_tolu
Predicts 5-5.5m and laughs at anyone who thinks ps4 gets to 10m.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=7102074

Materi
Wii U sells way more LTD
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=7102104

Eric:
Ps4 selling 10m was not even funny.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=7102407

Baloofarsan
Ps4 ends under 5m
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=7109166

Officerraichu15:
6m ps4
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=7109727

Yours truly Kerotan:
Ps4 will sell more SW and HW LTD
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=7101988