vivster said:
Define "considerably". I can certainly see a 20% decline but is that a lot? |
I think even 50% decline is realistic for any dedicated home console in Japan.
Pinkie_pie said:
Does it matter if it sell less in japan if it outsells the ps4 lifetime worldwide? |
Japan sales make a difference. For example the Switch sold more WW in Feb despite having only slightly more sales in the US with notably less sales in EU than PS4. This is because Japanese sales number made up the difference and put Switch ahead for the month.
Pinkie_pie said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Totally agree with the OP. There is hardly any reason for a Japanese person to own a PS5. Almost all of the Japanese games are going to be on the Switch. Why would they buy a PS5, when Switch has all of the games they want? Conservatively, I will predict PS5 will sell less than half of PS4 in Japan. (Although I actually think it will be a lot lower than this.)
Now the next logical step is in realizing that this sort of thing is going to happen in North America and Europe too. Switch won't have the same dominating market share in those regions like it will in Japan, but it's still going to lure away plenty of potential PS5 buyers to the Switch instead.
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North America and Europe are buying the switch instead because they can play all the big 3rd party games on it? Switch will not be getting any 3rd party games that are made for the ps5. it might be the end of switch when ps5 launches
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At that point they will just have more 3rd party executives geared toward what the Switch is. It might not have many multiplats, but the install base is too big for 3rd parties to ignore at this point, especially in Japan. Look at how long they kept the VITA alive for example.
And when the inevitable Switch 2 comes in say, 2022...your argument becomes moot anyway.
twintail said:
Shiken said:
Just as the title says, for a few reasons. One is Sony's stance on censorship. Many Japanese devs, particularly smaller ones, cannot be bothered with it. While bigger games such as DMC5 remained untouched in Japan, other games most certainly are. Regardless of how you might feel about this censorship, it will impact sales in Japan. Especially considering that their biggest competitor, Nintendo, is not making the same restriction.
Which brings me to my next point, the dedicated home console is now even less relevant than it used to be in Japan due to the Switch. While the Switch is weaker, it is capable of running most Japanese games for years to come. The easy form factor of having both a portable and home console option in one package combined with not pushing cencorship will make it so there is little reason for Japanese gamers to invest in a PS5 unless they really care about specs (which most gamers there tend not to).
With the PS4, there was a reason for a Japanese gamer to get one alongside a 3DS if they wanted an option to play on a TV. With the Switch however, that need has greatly diminished as most games that are Japanese focused will no doubt also be coming to Switch. Many will come to PS5 as well to satisfy western jrpg fans, but will be dominated by their Switch counterparts in Japan (they will sell close to equal in the west, as both Switch and PS5 will have a big presence there).
I am not saying the PS5 will outright flop in Japan, but when these factors are considered, I do not see it even coming close to PS4 sales.
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Lets start at the beginning. How do you know most smaller devs cant be bothered with the censorship angle from Sony? How is the censorship making the lives of these devs any different? Are these games responsible for moving PS4 or switch hardware?
What makes you think that gamers are buying hardware based solely on the form factor? This may be true for mobile devices since that has been the trend for the last 2 gens, but you are saying that software plays no key convincing Japanese consumers to buy a console? Is the switch going to continue getting every multiplatform game once the PS5 is out, let alone every PS4 game while it is still Sony's main console?
I feel like a similar argument could have been made prior to the PS4s launch, and here we are now with the PS4 seller faster than the PS3 was at the same point in its Japanese life cycle.
I feel like PS5 will not change that much: as long as it is offering software not possible on the Switch it will have a dedicated enough audience to go with it.
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Well there are other factors as well. Nintendo is the only hardware maker truly catering to Japanese tastes. Sony is now based in NA, the PS4 already treated them like second class citizens with a later release in their region, and all of there first party efforts are geared towards the west. All of this is on top of what I have already mentioned.
I am not saying it will not sell, but with most Japanese devs making either Switch versions of their games or Switch exclusives in the future, the PS5 will look a lot less appealing to the average Japanese gamer. It is for that reason, a 50% in HW sales seems like a reasonable estimate for the PS5 in Japan.
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