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Official 2020 US Election: Democratic Party Discussion

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Bofferbrauer2 said:
haxxiy said:
Castro has qualified for the third debate with the latest CNN poll, and Gabbard also picked up another poll. Steyer, amusingly enough, didn't, even though Morning Consult claims he's at 7% in the earlier states. He needs one more, and Gabbard two.

When do they need to have them to qualify for the next debate?

"between June 28 and August 28" → so about a week left.



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I don´t want to spoil the fun but Biden has a guarantee to win the primaries because he has a massive lock on the black Democrats vote of nearly 60%, more than 5x that of Sanders who comes in a very distant second place with 10%, the rest basically doesn't exist. I don't think this is about policy but name recognition that nobody else has. With the high proportion of black Dems primary vote Biden has already won.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3637

(60% of those who actually gave a vote went to Biden)

Last edited by numberwang - on 20 August 2019

numberwang said:

I don´t want to spoil the fun but Biden has a guarantee to win the primaries because he has a massive lock on the black Democrats vote of nearly 60%, more than 5x that of Sanders who comes in a very distant second place with 10%, the rest basically doesn't exist. I don't think this is about policy but name recognition that nobody else has. With the high proportion of black Dems primary vote Biden has already won.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3637

(60% of those who actually gave a vote went to Biden)

It's due to having been the vice president of the first black president that he has this following from the black community. The problem is that it's slowly melting and they are a very big part of the reason why Biden is leading (the other being the majority of the establishment/moderate votes and the boomers/silent). Like you said, he was at 60%, but the poll you're linked shows him already down to 47%, as more and more see that his policies are not for them or rehashes of those from other ones running, mostly Sanders and Warren.

The result is that he's slowly sliding down in the polls. While he took a hit from Harris in the first debate, he was back to 30-35% in the national polls by late July. Now, he mostly tracks below 30% in the polls even though the second debate had no direct effect on him and Harris is back to where she came from in the polls.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 20 August 2019

Kamala's planned attendance to her top bundler's fundraising events instead of the climate crisis town hall speaks volumes of what her presidency would look like.

Kystal Ball's summation and observation of this situation and of Harris's flip-flopping is absolutely right. Krystal is quickly becoming one of my favorites.

Here is her take on the situation as a whole

Edit: fixed up my original post

Last edited by tsogud - on 20 August 2019

 

With Castro qualifying, we now have 10.  That could make for single night or 5 each across 2 nights.  With the August 28 qualification deadline looming, I don't foresee any other candidates making it. Steyer, Gabbard, Inslee and Williamson all have the donors but not the polls and you need both now.  Steyer has 3 of the 4 polls needed but getting that 4th one is going to be tough.

Gabbard has 2 of the 4 polls needed.  She and Steyer may still qualify for the 4th debate if they can drum up some good press over the next month.  But this appears to be the end of the debate line for all other candidates who have not qualified.   Gillibrand has 110,000 out of the required 130,000 individual donors and 1 poll.  She is the closest of the remaining candidates but polling with prevent her from qualifying.  Everybody else is at 0 polls and less than 30,000 donors.



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tsogud said:

Kamala's planned attendance to her top bundler's fundraising events instead of the climate crisis town hall speaks volumes of what her presidency would look like.

Kystal Ball's summation and observation of this situation and of Harris's flip-flopping is absolutely right. Krystal is quickly becoming one of my favorites.

Here is her take on the situation as a whole

Edit: fixed up my original post

 We already know she's a believer in climate change so I don't see the issue with her doing some more fundraising. 



Bofferbrauer2 said:
numberwang said:

I don´t want to spoil the fun but Biden has a guarantee to win the primaries because he has a massive lock on the black Democrats vote of nearly 60%, more than 5x that of Sanders who comes in a very distant second place with 10%, the rest basically doesn't exist. I don't think this is about policy but name recognition that nobody else has. With the high proportion of black Dems primary vote Biden has already won.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3637

(60% of those who actually gave a vote went to Biden)

It's due to having been the vice president of the first black president that he has this following from the black community. The problem is that it's slowly melting and they are a very big part of the reason why Biden is leading (the other being the majority of the establishment/moderate votes and the boomers/silent). Like you said, he was at 60%, but the poll you're linked shows him already down to 47%, as more and more see that his policies are not for them or rehashes of those from other ones running, mostly Sanders and Warren.

The result is that he's slowly sliding down in the polls. While he took a hit from Harris in the first debate, he was back to 30-35% in the national polls by late July. Now, he mostly tracks below 30% in the polls even though the second debate had no direct effect on him and Harris is back to where she came from in the polls.

My prediction is that Joe's clout (not his policies) is an unchangeable Juggernaut that will make him unstoppable once we reach the southern states with the higher percentage of black Dems voters. He will crush his Dem enemies, see them driven before him, and to hear the lamentation of their women! 

Sanders is already dead in the waters since he endorsed HER in 2016. He lost half of his voter base permanently there and I don't know why he is even trying. He will endorse Biden in the end like he did last time. Can't get fooled again.

Warren's stick will work fine with white voters and can make her competitive in majority white states but will get nearly nothing from black or hispanic Dems (no clout), so she is toast too.

Tulsi and Yang are high-information candidates that will never penetrate into the consciousness of the average Dem without the backing of the msm.



jason1637 said:

 We already know she's a believer in climate change so I don't see the issue with her doing some more fundraising. 

Apparently she just decided to attend the town hall due to the backlash.

Choosing money over the planet got us into this mess and was not a good initial decision.  Credit where credit is due though, I'm glad she made the right choice here.

Her flip-flopping illustrated in the video is still a valid critique nonetheless.

Last edited by tsogud - on 20 August 2019

 

tsogud said:

Kamala's planned attendance to her top bundler's fundraising events instead of the climate crisis town hall speaks volumes of what her presidency would look like.

Kystal Ball's summation and observation of this situation and of Harris's flip-flopping is absolutely right. Krystal is quickly becoming one of my favorites.

Here is her take on the situation as a whole

Edit: fixed up my original post

Yeah, Kamala is just digging herself deeper right now with things like that. A couple more blunders, and she can forget placing well in the California primary anymore.

While on the topic of the climate crisis town hall, I don't get why they invited just a handful of people to that town hall, did so months in advance, and especially why they didn't invite Inslee, for whom the climate change is the raison d'être in this primary.

numberwang said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

It's due to having been the vice president of the first black president that he has this following from the black community. The problem is that it's slowly melting and they are a very big part of the reason why Biden is leading (the other being the majority of the establishment/moderate votes and the boomers/silent). Like you said, he was at 60%, but the poll you're linked shows him already down to 47%, as more and more see that his policies are not for them or rehashes of those from other ones running, mostly Sanders and Warren.

The result is that he's slowly sliding down in the polls. While he took a hit from Harris in the first debate, he was back to 30-35% in the national polls by late July. Now, he mostly tracks below 30% in the polls even though the second debate had no direct effect on him and Harris is back to where she came from in the polls.

My prediction is that Joe's clout (not his policies) is an unchangeable Juggernaut that will make him unstoppable once we reach the southern states with the higher percentage of black Dems voters. He will crush his Dem enemies, see them driven before him, and to hear the lamentation of their women! 

Sanders is already dead in the waters since he endorsed HER in 2016. He lost half of his voter base permanently there and I don't know why he is even trying. He will endorse Biden in the end like he did last time. Can't get fooled again.

Warren's stick will work fine with white voters and can make her competitive in majority white states but will get nearly nothing from black or hispanic Dems (no clout), so she is toast too.

Tulsi and Yang are high-information candidates that will never penetrate into the consciousness of the average Dem without the backing of the msm.

He has those voters now, but there's no guarantee he'll still have them in a couple months down the road. But his lead in voters, especially black ones, is slowly eroding, so by the time the primary elections are in full swing he may very well be beatable in those states.

Also keep in mind that while he scores very high with black people, he's strongly underperforming with Latinos and Asians.

Biden should win both Carolinas. If by then he dropped so far that he's not safe there anymore, then his primary is as good as dead. For the later dates, we lack in polls to really see where everyone sits right now - most of the polls are still from spring in those states.

Speaking of which, the latest Morning Consult is out. Compared to one week before Biden dropped 2 points, which went to Warren and Yang. 31%, that's what Biden has now and what he had in early July after Harris knocked him out in the first debate (which back then was a drop of 7 points btw). They even mention that his favorability is waning.

So yeah, Biden is certainly trending down right now, and if he can't reverse course soon then everybody can see that he's vulnerable and not so much of an obvious choice anymore for those betting on electability - which would damage his campaign probably beyond repair.

Edit: added the link to the new Morning Consult.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 21 August 2019

tsogud said:
jason1637 said:

 We already know she's a believer in climate change so I don't see the issue with her doing some more fundraising. 

Apparently she just decided to attend the town hall due to the backlash.

Choosing money over the planet got us into this mess and was not a good initial decision.  Credit where credit is due though, I'm glad she made the right choice here.

Her flip-flopping illustrated in the video is still a valid critique nonetheless.

She didn't choose money over the planet. She's already a supporter of climate change bills and she's even co sponsored some. The timing of the two events aren't ideal but I don't think it's fair for her to get attacked on this. Raising money and going to a fundraiser is something you have to do.