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Official 2020 US Election: Democratic Party Discussion

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Jaicee said:

Just a casual note today: Elizabeth Warren has now moved up to second place in the Real Clear Politics polling average for the first time. Now she has polled in second place before in individual surveys, but not in the recent polling average overall. Until now. As of now the RCP polling averages of the candidates are:

Biden: 30.8%
Warren: 18.3%
Sanders: 16.5%
Harris: 8.3%
Buttigieg: 6.5%
Others: 2% or less

I don't suspect this move up the ladder for Warren will last. It's clearly just the effect of the last debate and will probably evaporate over the month with Sanders retaking second place by the time we get to the next debate in September because this clearly WANTS to be a race specifically between Biden and Sanders, but still it's the first time this has happened, so thought it worth casually noting anyway.

Warren was slowly rising for about 3 months now. This is pretty much just the continuation of this rise and not due to the last debate. In the last ones, Bernie barely edged her out. But Bernie was also rising up a bit, and that was due to the debate.

Just look at her ratings over time on the Wikipedia page:

As you can see, Warren was constantly rising since April. The first debate actually slowed her down, but now, it's going up again. She's clearly winning the majority of the votes that Harris is loosing right now, but also Sanders and Buttigieg are winning some to a lesser degree.

It sounds to me almost like you have trouble to believe that she could win because she's a women



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Jumpin said:

One guy I REALLY miss being a part of the discussion is Ojeda. Miner guy with the shaved head. Seemed to have a heart of gold and just as honest. If he were running still he might be up on my second tier.

Yeah, he may have given up too early. I recently learned about his house race. In the primary he faced an establishment democrat, as establishment said only a conservative candidate is electable enough. He won the primary and lost the general with 13 points, which sounds bad until you hear that 2016 the republican candidate won the seat by 43 points. That was a really good performance by him. He should run again for some office. I think he can do something for democrats in West Virginia.



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Fivethirtyeight made an outlook on who might make the third debate.

9 candidates are qualified so far: Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Beto O'Rourke, Amy Klobuchar and Andrew Yang.

4 candidates are more or less close and might or might not clear the mark (and as polls and donors are also counted towards the qualification of the fourth debate, if they miss this one they have still a reasonable shot at the next):

  • Julian Castro has enough donors and already 3 qualifiying polls. He only needs one more poll.
  • Tom Steyer also has already three polls, only one away. 538 cites his campaign with being close to the donor-mark, so that might be doable too.
  • Tulsi Gabbard has cleared the donor-mark, but only has one qualifying poll. It is possible for her to get three more, but it will be difficult.
  • Kirsten Gillibrand has not yet reached 130K donors, but is reasonably close. She also has only one qualifying poll.

So from these four some may make it. I have ordered them in order of the chance I think they have to make it.

From the rest only three have made some reasonable progress. Jay Inslee and Marianne Williamson are close to hitting 130K donors, but have not a single qualifying poll. John Hickenlooper has one qualifying poll, but is reportedly far away from the needed donors. These three are very unlikely to make it, even to the fourth debate.

The rest is far away in both donors and have no qualifying polls. They will probably have no chance.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018

Predictions: Switch / Switch vs. XB1 in the US / Three Houses first quarter

Tulsi Gabbard leaves campaign trail for 2 weeks for active duty training. https://us.cnn.com/2019/08/12/politics/tulsi-gabbard-active-duty-training-two-weeks-national-guard/index.html She will probably drop after the 2 weeks if her numbers dont increase.



jason1637 said:
Tulsi Gabbard leaves campaign trail for 2 weeks for active duty training. https://us.cnn.com/2019/08/12/politics/tulsi-gabbard-active-duty-training-two-weeks-national-guard/index.html She will probably drop after the 2 weeks if her numbers dont increase.

Not so sure. Yes, I see her dropping out before Iowa and supporting Warren or Sanders. But she has an agenda: pushing for ending the endless wars. The longer she can stay in, the more she can push this message. And she has a reasonable chance to make the third and an even better chance to make the fourth debate. I think she will probably try to reach debate stage once more to get her message out.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018

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Did anyone see Andrew Yang break down while discussing gun violence recently? He may not quite be my top choice for president, but I really like him just as a person and that moment illustrates why: because he's a human being! He's not just running for president for a career boost. The problems facing the nation actually seem to mean something to him.



This is old, but damn, this is why Gravel interested me. This is not a parody account. This is the campaign's account. It's in response to Delaney saying some shady deceptive bullshit about Bernie's M4A plan.



Lol damn didn't know Gravel was so firey, would've been interesting to see him at the debates.



 

tsogud said:
Lol damn didn't know Gravel was so firey, would've been interesting to see him at the debates.

His Twitter is handled by the young people that convinced him to run.

For his possible debate performance, look at 2008:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBcMUZAXMW4



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018

Predictions: Switch / Switch vs. XB1 in the US / Three Houses first quarter

Some interesting video about Gabbard and how she's treated by the media:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K22fnFk5kq8