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Official 2020 US Election: Democratic Party Discussion

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If anybody has a citation that can fill in the incomplete information on that Candidate Political Position page, please edit it to reflect the correction.

I'll add that link to the my original post.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

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The latest Morning Consult poll is out, and has rather big changes over the last weeks:

Biden still leads, but he lost 3% since mid of the month, now at 32%.

Bernie was losing throughout March and went from 27% to 23%. Third is Harris, coming at 9%, a slight increase for her.

Next is Warren, staying at her 7% since end of February.

Buttigieg has taken the 5th spot now with 5% of the votes, and has been constantly rising over the last weeks; one month ago he was still pretty much under "also ran".

Cory Booker still stays at 4% but is now only 6th candidate since Buttigieg overtook him.

All the others have 2% or less, but in total still account for 14% of the votes.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Just wanted to add the wikipedia page with the official positions of each candidate in the race (plus Biden), which is pretty interesting to see where each one stands for.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_positions_of_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primary_candidates

Oh, thanks for this site. Although the coloring shows a political bias. Green and red is usually taken for right/wrong, good/bad or so, but here it stands for specific positions. For instance intervention in syria has green for yes, many would say no intervention is the better path. A more neutral coloring (blue and orange for instance) would've been better in my opinion.

Anyways, it is helpful to have an overview of candidates positions as presented there. This is nice.

EDIT: Mayor Pete is for student debt relief but at the same time against tuition free college? That makes no sense. Would like to hear the rationale behind it.

Last edited by Mnementh - on 09 April 2019

3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

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SpokenTruth said:

We also have both private and public schools but charters school are a mix of both.  They are private but funded publicly. And they are not under the same public scrutiny, regulations, laws, etc...  For all that, they fall under the private sector side of things.  So they get public school money but private school operations. 

Yeah, such a thing is never a good idea, usually it just combines the bad things of both systems. And such a thing is often used to channel public money into private hands without much regulations.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

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Update: California Representative Eric Swalwell has officially announced his candidacy after completing and exploratory committee.  Former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg has officially denied running and is removed from the speculative list.

There are now 19 official candidates for the Democratic Party nominee and a further 8 potential candidates



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

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Biden polling in first? Bleh..

At least Bernie is in a not too distant second, I can live with that.

Sucks though that my two prefered candidates, Tulsi and Yang only have 1%. Come on, Dems!

Guess this shows I really have drifted farther from the ideology of at least mainstream Dems in recent years (though they seem to have also drifted from my ideals as well)..



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DarthMetalliCube said:

Biden polling in first? Bleh..

At least Bernie is in a not too distant second, I can live with that.

Sucks though that my two prefered candidates, Tulsi and Yang only have 1%. Come on, Dems!

Guess this shows I really have drifted farther from the ideology of at least mainstream Dems in recent years (though they seem to have also drifted from my ideals as well)..

Polls right now don't mean anything.  We are in the pre-pre-game period. It's just "which name do you recognize" polling at this point.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

SpokenTruth said:
DarthMetalliCube said:

Biden polling in first? Bleh..

At least Bernie is in a not too distant second, I can live with that.

Sucks though that my two prefered candidates, Tulsi and Yang only have 1%. Come on, Dems!

Guess this shows I really have drifted farther from the ideology of at least mainstream Dems in recent years (though they seem to have also drifted from my ideals as well)..

Polls right now don't mean anything.  We are in the pre-pre-game period. It's just "which name do you recognize" polling at this point.

I'd call it the "make a name before shit gets serious" game. And position yourself and your policies.

Some will probably drop out soon. Delaney, Gillibrand, Williamson, Inslee and Hickenlooper are constantly polling very badly without any improvements. I don't think they will last very long anymore. They might wait for the first debate and see the reactions, but if they don't improve from there I'm sure they'll see the writing on the wall, too.

I don't know what to make out of Messam and Ryan yet, they're not even named in most polls yet. And now with Swalwell, there's probably yet another for the "other" list, at least for now...



Bofferbrauer2 said:
SpokenTruth said:

Polls right now don't mean anything.  We are in the pre-pre-game period. It's just "which name do you recognize" polling at this point.

I'd call it the "make a name before shit gets serious" game. And position yourself and your policies.

Some will probably drop out soon. Delaney, Gillibrand, Williamson, Inslee and Hickenlooper are constantly polling very badly without any improvements. I don't think they will last very long anymore. They might wait for the first debate and see the reactions, but if they don't improve from there I'm sure they'll see the writing on the wall, too.

I don't know what to make out of Messam and Ryan yet, they're not even named in most polls yet. And now with Swalwell, there's probably yet another for the "other" list, at least for now...

From the candidates perspective, it's even pre-game for the "make a name for yourself" period.  This is really the tail end of the exploratory committee period.  We always have front runners at this point that never make it to the finals and nobodies who go the distance. Starting in the summer, that's when we move into the real "make a name for yourself" period.  That's when it starts to count.  When ads start rolling.  Interviews happen.  When the first debates start to shape the field.

And I agree that those you listed (plus Castro) will probably drop this summer.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

Bofferbrauer2 said:
SpokenTruth said:

Polls right now don't mean anything.  We are in the pre-pre-game period. It's just "which name do you recognize" polling at this point.

I'd call it the "make a name before shit gets serious" game. And position yourself and your policies.

Some will probably drop out soon. Delaney, Gillibrand, Williamson, Inslee and Hickenlooper are constantly polling very badly without any improvements. I don't think they will last very long anymore. They might wait for the first debate and see the reactions, but if they don't improve from there I'm sure they'll see the writing on the wall, too.

I don't know what to make out of Messam and Ryan yet, they're not even named in most polls yet. And now with Swalwell, there's probably yet another for the "other" list, at least for now...

It's not even the first debate. The ones not qualifying for the debates in the first place are in no position to get better to begin with. So I think the ones who do, and that includes Yang and Gabbard at this point, are better off as they can present their ideas. I think from the 19 who are named by the Wikipedia as important candidates + Biden (who is probably running), only 10 I think are safe by either unique donors or constantly polling high enough. As the polling criteria is very loose and it is still time to get donations, some more will qualify but five candidates will probably fail at this point and drop out. The ones that are in danger of not reaching the first debates are in my opinion Castro, Delaney, Gillibrand, Gravel, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Messam, Ryan, Swalwell and Williamson. Probably only half of them will make it to the debates.

The the next winnowing will be probably the criteria for the second round off debates.

SpokenTruth said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

I'd call it the "make a name before shit gets serious" game. And position yourself and your policies.

Some will probably drop out soon. Delaney, Gillibrand, Williamson, Inslee and Hickenlooper are constantly polling very badly without any improvements. I don't think they will last very long anymore. They might wait for the first debate and see the reactions, but if they don't improve from there I'm sure they'll see the writing on the wall, too.

I don't know what to make out of Messam and Ryan yet, they're not even named in most polls yet. And now with Swalwell, there's probably yet another for the "other" list, at least for now...

From the candidates perspective, it's even pre-game for the "make a name for yourself" period.  This is really the tail end of the exploratory committee period.  We always have front runners at this point that never make it to the finals and nobodies who go the distance. Starting in the summer, that's when we move into the real "make a name for yourself" period.  That's when it starts to count.  When ads start rolling.  Interviews happen.  When the first debates start to shape the field.

And I agree that those you listed (plus Castro) will probably drop this summer.

Fivethirtyeight has looked at past primaries and looked what early polling tells us. And adjusted for name recognition early polling gives a somewhat decent indication who might have a chance.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-more-than-40-years-of-early-primary-polls-tell-us-about-2020-part-1/

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-more-than-40-years-of-early-primary-polls-tell-us-about-2020-part-2/

I'm interested in part 3 with conclusions and probably a polling average adjusted for name recognition for current candidates.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018

Predictions: Switch / Switch vs. XB1 in the US / Three Houses first quarter