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Forums - Politics Discussion - Official 2020 US Election: Democratic Party Discussion

DarthMetalliCube said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

I'd argue it's a bit of both. Sure, Sanders and Warren are splitting the progressive votes, but Biden still has the advantage of being the most recent Vice President under Obama. Mainstream Democrats (I refuse to call them moderates) did vote for Obama and know him well, and I don't think that's gonna change much.

Warren and Harris also get much votes from persons who want to see a strong female President. This is a field where neither Biden nor Sanders can compete. Hence why in the CBS poll Harris is much favored by Warren voters, but all the males are down a peg.

All this makes Harris the pragmatic choice right now: As a women, she gets the female votes, and has a twofer for being part of a minority, too. She neither too progressive nor too conservative to piss off either side of the spectrum. The bad news is that only a few are considering her for their first choice, and I doubt that that's gonna change much.

Pretty much this.

However, the times, they are-a-changing. You can clearly see that the democrats as a whole are moving more to the left, in part to counterbalance the move to the right of the republican party. This makes the establishment a lot weaker than they were just a couple years ago. Millennials and Gen Zs in particular tend to be much more on the left side of the spectrum than previous generations, and as their numbers swell, they are pushing the party to their left side of things.

In other words, time is against the establishment candidates. The more young voters are coming to age, the more the progressives will gain in power.

I've actually heard on multiple occasions that Gen Z is shaping up to be a very conservative and libertarian generation. I've even heard they're becoming the most conservative generation since the 50s. 

It makes sense, as these things tend to go in cycles. And every generation tends to rebel against the previous, and us Millenials are a highly highly puritanical generation that's very friendly with the idea of Authoritarianism and censorship, so we're extremely susceptible to being rebelled against by the youth. And how do you rebel against neoliberalism, mainstream Authoritarian left? Conservatism and libertarianism. In the same way Millenials and Gen X rebelled against the conservative and Authoritarian boomers, Gen Z is now beginning to rebel against our puritanical culture of PC, safe spaces, and censorhsip. 

Actually it's the other way around. Over 60% of the Gen Z identify themselves as left-leaning, progressive, democrats or anything among those lines. In fact, they tend to be even more left-leaning than the millenials:

https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2019/01/17/generation-z-looks-a-lot-like-millennials-on-key-social-and-political-issues/

https://www.commentarymagazine.com/politics-ideas/generation-z-is-a-liberal-tsunami/

Even among non-Hispanic whites, the percentage is tipping in favor of the democrats (older study, I know. Couldn't find any newer one, but the trend is pretty clear): https://news.gallup.com/poll/168125/young-americans-affinity-democratic-party-grown.aspx

Or as Salon puts it: Terrible news for Republicans, Generation Z might be the most progressive ever: https://www.salon.com/2019/01/18/terrible-news-for-republicans-gen-z-may-be-most-progressive-ever/

What might have given the impression of Generation Z being more conservative may be that in certain points, they seem to shy away from the points of establishment democrats and some more in line with conservatism, like much higher church attendance than Millenials or even X-ers. They are also more fiscally conservative - but at the same time want more involvement from the government in many domestic affairs. In short, in some issues, they tend to fall more on one or the other spectrum. However, taken as a whole, they tend to check almost all the progressive marks along the way, as the links above show.

In fact, they are moving the whole country to the left on social issues, including the republican party. This is especially true on issues like race and climate change:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/23/us/gop-liberal-america-millennials.html

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/young-republicans-trending-more-liberal-than-older-conservatives-poll

https://www.deseretnews.com/article/900053886/meet-generation-z-theyre-kind-of-like-millennials-but-heres-where-theyre-different.html

In fact, they don't see themselves as conservatives, even when part of the republican party. Just look how it divebombs at the end:

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/03/post-millennial-republicans-trend-away-from-conservatism.html

Edit: Arrghh, ninja'ed by the Pi-Guy!

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 03 August 2019

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the-pi-guy said:
A lot of conservatives are hoping that gen Z will be conservative, and there's a lot of propaganda claiming that they are.

But so far, I haven't seen anything remotely suggesting this to be the case.

https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2019/01/17/generation-z-looks-a-lot-like-millennials-on-key-social-and-political-issues/

So far it looks like they are just like millennials.

Eh as someone that is gen Z I wouldn't say were a conservative generation. From my perspective most people i know are relatively liberal on issues like healthcare, education, civil rights, gun laws, and military intervention. I fell like the misconceptions comes from how we see certain groups of liberals because of how many on the internet have put a negative light on feminism, sjw, antifa, and socialism. So we lean liberal but a lot of us don't like those things





jason1637 said:

The number of people joining the race is still higher than the number of people droppping out, right?



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DarthMetalliCube said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

I'd argue it's a bit of both. Sure, Sanders and Warren are splitting the progressive votes, but Biden still has the advantage of being the most recent Vice President under Obama. Mainstream Democrats (I refuse to call them moderates) did vote for Obama and know him well, and I don't think that's gonna change much.

Warren and Harris also get much votes from persons who want to see a strong female President. This is a field where neither Biden nor Sanders can compete. Hence why in the CBS poll Harris is much favored by Warren voters, but all the males are down a peg.

All this makes Harris the pragmatic choice right now: As a women, she gets the female votes, and has a twofer for being part of a minority, too. She neither too progressive nor too conservative to piss off either side of the spectrum. The bad news is that only a few are considering her for their first choice, and I doubt that that's gonna change much.

Pretty much this.

However, the times, they are-a-changing. You can clearly see that the democrats as a whole are moving more to the left, in part to counterbalance the move to the right of the republican party. This makes the establishment a lot weaker than they were just a couple years ago. Millennials and Gen Zs in particular tend to be much more on the left side of the spectrum than previous generations, and as their numbers swell, they are pushing the party to their left side of things.

In other words, time is against the establishment candidates. The more young voters are coming to age, the more the progressives will gain in power.

I've actually heard on multiple occasions that Gen Z is shaping up to be a very conservative and libertarian generation. I've even heard they're becoming the most conservative generation since the 50s. 

It makes sense, as these things tend to go in cycles. And every generation tends to rebel against the previous, and us Millenials are a highly highly puritanical generation that's very friendly with the idea of Authoritarianism and censorship, so we're extremely susceptible to being rebelled against by the youth. And how do you rebel against neoliberalism, mainstream Authoritarian left? Conservatism and libertarianism. In the same way Millenials and Gen X rebelled against the conservative and Authoritarian boomers, Gen Z is now beginning to rebel against our puritanical culture of PC, safe spaces, and censorhsip. 

Whaaaat?

First off: Neoliberalism has been primarily embraced by right-wing parties since the early 1980s (Particularly beginning with Thatcher and Reagan in the English speaking world), and strongly opposed by left.

Second, there aren't any mainstream authoritarian governments in any western nation. There are some authoritarian elements, but they're typically supported by the right and opposed by the left. The authoritarian elements of the US (ICE, the prison system, and the police system) are all strongly supported by the right, and most often criticized by the left. Additionally, Trump is going on love-cruises with Kim Jong Un, Vladimir Putin, and Mohammed Bin Salman, while his right-wing fans are calling for banishments and locking up his political opponents.

Also, you can't say someone in the US is anti-neoliberalism and then pro-libertarianism when in the US libertarianism has come to basically mean the exact same thing as neoliberalism: laissez-faire/free-market economy, removal of regulations, and removal of taxation.

Additionally, Pew Research shows Generation Z (I hadn't heard the term "Gen Z" before, idiot-jumping-to-conclusions me thought you were talking about some weird militant Rogan-esque celebrity over in the US called "General Z"). https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2019/01/17/generation-z-looks-a-lot-like-millennials-on-key-social-and-political-issues/



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I love good data journalism and the New York Times provided an excellent piece of data journalism. A map of who has the most donors in which region:

This sea of blue for Sanders is just dazzling. So much he drowns out other candidates, which is why they made a map without him:

This is so excellent. I really recommend you go to the article as it shows more data and maps for each candidate and the maps are actually explorable, you can zoom into them and see second and third place for each place.

This data is possible as all donor-data for this democratic primary is processed through ActBlue and the data is from them.



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Mnementh said:

I love good data journalism and the New York Times provided an excellent piece of data journalism. A map of who has the most donors in which region:

This sea of blue for Sanders is just dazzling. So much he drowns out other candidates, which is why they made a map without him:

This is so excellent. I really recommend you go to the article as it shows more data and maps for each candidate and the maps are actually explorable, you can zoom into them and see second and third place for each place.

This data is possible as all donor-data for this democratic primary is processed through ActBlue and the data is from them.

XD



jason1637 said:
Mnementh said:

I love good data journalism and the New York Times provided an excellent piece of data journalism. A map of who has the most donors in which region:

This sea of blue for Sanders is just dazzling. So much he drowns out other candidates, which is why they made a map without him:

This is so excellent. I really recommend you go to the article as it shows more data and maps for each candidate and the maps are actually explorable, you can zoom into them and see second and third place for each place.

This data is possible as all donor-data for this democratic primary is processed through ActBlue and the data is from them.

XD

I just realized with the bit you picked out, that we see how many unique donors they had by end of June, and oh boy, quite a lot will have no chance in hell to qualify for the third debate: Bill de Blasio (7000), John Delaney (8000), Tim Ryan (10,000), John Hickenlooper (14,000), Seth Moulton (14,000), Steve Bullock (17,000) and Michael Bennet (28,000). The qualification criteria is 130,000 unique donors. So I know seven guys who surely will not qualify for third debate.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Booker: $469,876
Beto: $236,597
Gillibrand: $366,197
Kamala: $43,550
Klobuchar: $235,380
Warren: $107,155
Tulsi Gabbard: $33,400
Biden: $480,160
https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/summary.php?ind=q05&recipdetail=M&sortorder=U&cycle=All



https://www.thedailybeast.com/mike-gravel-to-formally-endorse-bernie-sanders-campaign

So Gravel is dropping out and endorsing Sanders. Such a shame, he had some really cool ideas, unique to the entire two dozen plus field of candidates. He would have been such an interesting voice at the debates.