Bofferbrauer2 said:
Yeah, I can see that also with the Morning Consult results, where he again won a point this week (from Sanders). At the same time, Harris is dropping again in most polls. Do American voters have such a short memory span that the first debate is already fading away? |
Well, events have short term effects and long term effects. Every campaign announcement was followed by a boost for said candidate, which afterwards faded away. Similarly with the debate effects: the short term effect of the emotional impression the debate made is fading.
Still, this has long term effects. It has moved the fallback base opinion people have a bit for well known candidates and have given them a first fallback base opinion about lesser known candidates.
So I see two long-term effects. Before the debates most people only knew about Biden and Sanders. So they tended to give either one their vote, because you usually avoid the unknown. Now then they start to have a base opinion on formerly lesser known candidates, they become an option, but that doesn't mean they change their first vote immediately. If the candidate with their first vote makes stumbles, some might be persuaded to switch to a second option. But this is impossible if no second option is known. So this already helps, that people know about their options through the debates.
The second is, that one single event like a debate, doesn't change the opinion on candidates completely. But it may chip away and transform the internal image you have. This takes time. So people are bouncing back to Biden, but not all of them. If something happens next, he will lose or win support (depending on what happens) that stays too. This effects adds up over time.