The Hill/HarrisX also has a new post-debate poll. Biden -2, Sanders +2, Warren +2, Harris +6, Buttigieg +2, O'Rourke -2, ...

https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/451215-harris-surges-past-warren-to-claim-third-place-in-post-debate-poll

This leads to Harris reaching 10% and Biden dropping below 30% in the RCp average:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Just to point out that that's the way it works in every single industrial country and also a large number of emerging and third world countries. Just not in the US.

America, the greatest country in the world, as you have first show proof of health insurance before you get much needed medical help.

Could be short-lived. Probably not though if you think about who composes the Democratic Party's core voter coalition. Black women compose the most reliable group of Democratic voters; as they go, typically so goes the Democratic Party when it comes to presidential nominees, and Harris is now polling even with Biden in that new CNN poll. And both the CNN and Hill/HarrisX polls indicate, notably, that Harris appears to have gained traction among male voters as well, emerging from this debate as just about the only candidate whose supporters are mostly men. (Democratic Party membership is currently 59% female, for perspective.)

Just as a brief remark today, the initial post-debate polling seems to suggest that we now have what is, for all intents and purposes, a four-candidate race, with Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren all polling well in the lead ahead of their rivals consistently, and indeed typically all in double-digits. We'll see leadership status confirmed more formally after the next debate at the end of this month, but I think that's the race that's taking shape.

It's still way too early. The 2016 GOP top 4 candidates this early was Trump, Carson, Bush, and Cruz but it emeded up being Trump, Cruz, Kaisch, and Rubio.

That's not an apples to apples comparison. First of all, this is after a debate and the first GOP debate in 2016 didn't take place until August. Secondly, this is also the Democratic Party, not the Republican Party we're talking about. Usually the contours take shape earlier on in Democratic nominating contests. For example, in 2008, it was clear by the time of the first debate that the contest was between Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards. Likewise, by the time of the first Democratic debate in 2016, it was clear that the contest was between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. See what I'm saying?

I don't think the comparison with 2008 and 2016 is that fair. Those years the primary field was much smaller than it is now. Iowa is still like 200 days away so there's still a lot of time for things to change.

Hickenlooper might drop.

NEWS: Hickenlooper's senior team told him to bow out gracefully last month and run for Senate. And his Q2 fundraising is only $1M, which is roughly what he raised in the first 48 hours his campaign. W/ @AlxThomp https://t.co/0e77em4YyP

— Nolan D. McCaskill (@NolanDMcCaskill) July 2, 2019

New Quinnipiac poll shows Harris in second and Bernie in 4th like the CNN poll. Beto also fell to 1% in ths poll.

#New #National @QuinnipiacPoll Post Debate Poll (6/28-7/1):
Biden 22%
Harris 20%
Warren 14%
Sanders 13%
Buttigieg 4%
Booker 3%
O'Rourke 1%
Klobuchar 1%
Castro 1%
Gabbard 1%
Yang 1%

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) July 2, 2019