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Forums - Politics Discussion - Official 2020 US Election: Democratic Party Discussion

SpokenTruth said:
jason1637 said:

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/state/texas?xid=ec_flip_hz_texas_d

Black vote is 21% and Latino vote is 31% of the Democratic primary in TX.

That's the proportion of just that exit poll.  Not the proportion of the population.  That exit poll had a very high African American segment compared to the overall actual population (21% in the exit poll vs 11.9% in the state).   Over-representation and/or under-representation in an exit poll is how predictions go horribly wrong.

African Americans just make up a bigger voting block in comparison to population. Its like in SC how the African American vote over represented the population. 



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First of all Its not over, however It's not looking good. Once again, just like in every previous contest there are signs of voter fraud, and there was blatant voter suppression in many states especially Texas. Warren is staying in to hurt Bernie which literally cost him atleast 4 states yesterday and possibly more and she's refusing to leave. Her super pac has stopped ads for the next set of contest as they feel the job is done.

The Good News out of this? Well for 1, Tulsi might be on stage because she got delegates, 2nd of all Bernie vs Biden is a Bernie win. 1 on 1 Biden can't debate, he can't speak, and he can't defend his policies. Bernie would rip him to shreds but again we still have that snake staying in the race simply to hurt Bernie. This went south but its not over. Unfortunately, I don't have much faith going forward due to a number of reasons which were always true but now made more difficult thanks to Warren. Bernie was never going to have it easy, and the party would always cheat him. We saw this from day 1 with Iowa. To win Bernie needs to over-win so they can't take it from him and his base to over-win with is being split with Warren.

I'm not a happy Camper, and I know certain individuals here are enjoying that, that's fine. You can't always have your way. However, once november rolls around and voter turn out is incredibly low because Biden is on the ballot and Trump sweeps, I don't want to see any voter shaming. We've been screaming from the rooftops about what we want and the establishment has been saying "screw off" so don't expect the left leaning independents to show up and the youth to show up. And again for mr Haxxiy who keeps missing points, and keeps sticking to his disproven talking points. The centrist has lost every race since 2000, and the main reason for that is that they never win the youth vote in the primary. We have 4 elections history here. When Obama won the youth vote, he won (he also ran as a progressive). Every other candidate lost the youth vote and went on to lose the general. If Young people don't come out you lose, and guess what? We're not coming out for Biden, and you can't convince us to vote for this man. If Biden wins, Trump will get re-elected. If Bernie wins, Trump might still get elected, but he actually has a shot at winning. Anyway that's all I'm going to say for now.

Oh and another thing, for those who don't keep up, I Haven't been wrong this cycle when it comes to my call outs. I said Warren was a Snake ages before she revealed herself while others still trust her even after everything that has happened. I've been saying the DNC rather lose to Trump than win with Bernie and that's looking very likely and from the very start I told you guys that only a real populist can defeat a fake one. If we see Biden vs Trump, I'm going to be sitting at home unless someone challenges my current representative from the left, which I do think is happening but I have to look more into that, but yea, I'll sit home and see Trump obliterate Biden.

Either way, this fight isn't over and Biden may be up now, Warren and the entire establishment may have pushed their weight behind him, and it'll be a hard fight. But we're not giving up, and we're not letting you doom mine and future generations. I may have a backup plan for when things go south but so many others don't and if you guys think me and so many other Berners gonna sit quietly and watch the establishment continue to screw over people we care for you're crazy.



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uran10 said:

I'm not a happy Camper, and I know certain individuals here are enjoying that, that's fine. You can't always have your way. However, once november rolls around and voter turn out is incredibly low because Biden is on the ballot and Trump sweeps, I don't want to see any voter shaming. We've been screaming from the rooftops about what we want and the establishment has been saying "screw off" so don't expect the left leaning independents to show up and the youth to show up. And again for mr Haxxiy who keeps missing points, and keeps sticking to his disproven talking points. The centrist has lost every race since 2000, and the main reason for that is that they never win the youth vote in the primary. We have 4 elections history here. When Obama won the youth vote, he won (he also ran as a progressive). Every other candidate lost the youth vote and went on to lose the general. If Young people don't come out you lose, and guess what? We're not coming out for Biden, and you can't convince us to vote for this man. If Biden wins, Trump will get re-elected. If Bernie wins, Trump might still get elected, but he actually has a shot at winning. Anyway that's all I'm going to say for now.

According to exit polls, turnout among the 18 - 29 age group was 18% in 2008, 19% in 2012 and 19% again in 2016. In both 2014 and 2018, it was 13%. There was never a young voter miracle. Just more people voting Republican or Democratic and all the age groups shifting more or less evenly:

In 2008, Obama won under 40 by 22 points and lost above 40 by 2 points, a 24 point swing.

In 2016, Clinton won under 40 by 16 points, and lost above 40 by 9 points, a 24 point swing.

2012's results are more or less halfway between the two.

It doesn't seem like there's anything here more than the common attrition any party in power suffers from.

We're seing it right before our eyes. Sanders' entire theory of elections is complete bullshit and the reason he's faceplanting in the primary is the same exact reason that Corbyn self-immolated in the UK. It's based on nothing more than fantasy wish fulfillment that treats "economic anxiety" as a real thing and ignores every single data point on young people and nonvoters we have.

Edit - although, given credit where credit is due, his outreach to Hispanic voters does set a precedent on how Democratic candidates should campaign with these voters and not end up like Bill Nelson.

Last edited by haxxiy - on 04 March 2020

 

 

 

 

 

haxxiy said:
uran10 said:

I'm not a happy Camper, and I know certain individuals here are enjoying that, that's fine. You can't always have your way. However, once november rolls around and voter turn out is incredibly low because Biden is on the ballot and Trump sweeps, I don't want to see any voter shaming. We've been screaming from the rooftops about what we want and the establishment has been saying "screw off" so don't expect the left leaning independents to show up and the youth to show up. And again for mr Haxxiy who keeps missing points, and keeps sticking to his disproven talking points. The centrist has lost every race since 2000, and the main reason for that is that they never win the youth vote in the primary. We have 4 elections history here. When Obama won the youth vote, he won (he also ran as a progressive). Every other candidate lost the youth vote and went on to lose the general. If Young people don't come out you lose, and guess what? We're not coming out for Biden, and you can't convince us to vote for this man. If Biden wins, Trump will get re-elected. If Bernie wins, Trump might still get elected, but he actually has a shot at winning. Anyway that's all I'm going to say for now.

According to exit polls, turnout among the 18 - 29 age group was 18% in 2008, 19% in 2012 and 19% again in 2016. In both 2014 and 2018, it was 13%. There was never a young voter miracle. Just more people voting Republican or Democratic and all the age groups shifting more or less evenly:

In 2008, Obama won under 40 by 22 points and lost above 40 by 2 points, a 24 point swing.

In 2016, Clinton won under 40 by 16 points, and lost above 40 by 9 points, a 24 point swing.

2012's results are more or less halfway between the two.

It doesn't seem like there's anything here more than the common attrition any party in power suffers from.

We're seing it right before our eyes. Sanders' entire theory of elections is complete bullshit and the reason he's faceplanting in the primary is the same exact reason that Corbyn self-immolated in the UK. It's based on nothing more than fantasy wish fulfillment that treats "economic anxiety" as a real thing and ignores every single data point on young people and nonvoters we have.

Edit - although, given credit where credit is due, his outreach to Hispanic voters does set a precedent on how Democratic candidates should campaign with these voters and not end up like Bill Nelson.

Youth turnout was down on Super Tuesday. Bernies youth vote turnout is a pipe dream. 



Again I will say this one more time and leave it at that. You run a progressive presidential campaign you win - Obama

You run a "centrist"(right wing) campaign you lose - Hillary, Al gore, Kerry.

What did Obama do differently besides run a better campaign than the 3 loser centrist? Oh yea, he won the youth vote in the Primary and energized them. So, regardless of how many times you try this nonsense history is literally on my side here. Centrist presidential campaigns always take the L come november, while Obama ran as a progressive both times and got the W.

Also Hax, you literally know nothing about UK politics if you think that's why Corbyn lost. He sided with the neoliberals in the UK when it came to the one issue that determined the entire election, Brexit. Don't even try that one.

Last edited by uran10 - on 04 March 2020

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Super tuesday was fun. It looks like it will be Biden vs Trump.

Even bloomberg is going with Biden. I wonder if he gets some money with that support. A couple billion would be nice for old joe .



In the wilderness we go alone with our new knowledge and strength.

uran10 said:

Again I will say this one more time and leave it at that. You run a progressive presidential campaign you win - Obama

You run a "centrist"(right wing) campaign you lose - Hillary, Al gore, Kerry.

What did Obama do differently besides run a better campaign than the 3 loser centrist? Oh yea, he won the youth vote in the Primary and energized them. So, regardless of how many times you try this nonsense history is literally on my side here. Centrist presidential campaigns always take the L come november, while Obama ran as a progressive both times and got the W.

Also Hax, you literally know nothing about UK politics if you think that's why Corbyn lost. He sided with the neoliberals in the UK when it came to the one issue that determined the entire election, Brexit. Don't even try that one.

Your memory different then mine.  Despite what the republican said it was clear from day one that obama was a centrist and his poisitions reflected that. 

Even biden ran from the left of obama in the 2008 primary.  Bernie thought about trying to primary obama in 2012 because obama is a centrist.

 I got no clue how anyone can think that obama is more of a progressive then biden is.  The difference is obama was a wayyyyy better speaker then biden and better at inspiring people but when it come to policy I can make a case he more to the center then even biden.



Saddened but surprised. This is the same country that voted for Hillary "just because" after all.



One can only hope that the uninformed masses that vote see this general election as a Obama vs Trump election. Biden, substituting for Obama of course. That's one thing Biden has over Hillary.



uran10 said:

Again I will say this one more time and leave it at that. You run a progressive presidential campaign you win - Obama

You run a "centrist"(right wing) campaign you lose - Hillary, Al gore, Kerry.

What did Obama do differently besides run a better campaign than the 3 loser centrist? Oh yea, he won the youth vote in the Primary and energized them. So, regardless of how many times you try this nonsense history is literally on my side here. Centrist presidential campaigns always take the L come november, while Obama ran as a progressive both times and got the W.

Also Hax, you literally know nothing about UK politics if you think that's why Corbyn lost. He sided with the neoliberals in the UK when it came to the one issue that determined the entire election, Brexit. Don't even try that one.

Obama was atleast able to beat Hillary Clinton. Bernie cant even do that.