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Forums - Politics Discussion - Official 2020 US Election: Democratic Party Discussion

Moren said:

Given the trend in 2018, would you say a Sanders ticket would complicate efforts to flip the Texas State Legislature?

Nope. First of all because I don't see anyone flipping the Texas state legislature any time soon and secondly because the reality of the matter is that the more left-leaning, inspiring candidates candidates who could turn out a movement fared better in 2018 than their more conservative counterparts. I mean seriously, while Andrew Gillum and Beto O'Rourke might have lost their respective races (as arguments against nominating more leftish, populistic Democrats routinely point out), they fared better, even as challengers, than the conservative Democratic incumbents in other red states; they came closer to winning their statewide races in general.

The risk in nominating Bernie Sanders is that middle class, suburban voters specifically either won't show up or will vote third party because they're, for obvious reasons, economically more center-right and, as we're seeing in this nominating contest, inclined to favor more conventional, neoliberal candidates. Those voters, key in 2018, are the weak link in the chain for Sanders. I get that. But while there's a possibility that that's what will manifest on election day, I don't see the concrete evidence of it. In every national survey I've seen, Sanders fares as good as or better than anyone else in the Democratic field against Trump, including among these voters. I suspect they can be stretched further than what the more centrist "experts" think is possible, hence, especially with the re-election of Trump as the alternative. Moreover, a Sanders nomination would definitely maximize youth excitement and probably also generate more support among Latinos (due especially to his unique stance in favor of abolishing ICE), in addition to rural, and working class white voters than more conservative candidates would be able to; people the "experts" aren't even thinking about.

Bofferbrauer2 said:

Interestingly, many Democrats are fearing this: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/15/texas-dems-sweat-bernie-sanders-ticket-110524

Pfff. Maybe if this article featured interviews with ordinary Democrats here, that would be something, but when instead they rely on inquiries of "a longtime Austin lobbyist who has worked with both Democrats and Republicans" and a "campaign consultant...who has been working in Democratic politics since he served on Clinton-Gore’s campaign team in the 1990s", somehow I don't consider those opinions to be derived from a sincere place so much as in having a direct personal interest in a different, more pro-corporate sort of Democrat winning.

Last edited by Jaicee - on 16 February 2020

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Jaicee said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Interestingly, many Democrats are fearing this: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/15/texas-dems-sweat-bernie-sanders-ticket-110524

Pfff. Maybe if this article featured interviews with ordinary Democrats here, that would be something, but when instead they rely on inquiries of "a longtime Austin lobbyist who has worked with both Democrats and Republicans" and a "campaign consultant...who has been working in Democratic politics since he served on Clinton-Gore’s campaign team in the 1990s", somehow I don't consider those opinions to be derived from a sincere place so much as in having a direct personal interest in a different, more pro-corporate sort of Democrat winning.

Yeah, should have precised "establishment" Democrats

And their Maths and how they calculate are way off:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gjV7PZn8WOA



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Jaicee said:

Pfff. Maybe if this article featured interviews with ordinary Democrats here, that would be something, but when instead they rely on inquiries of "a longtime Austin lobbyist who has worked with both Democrats and Republicans" and a "campaign consultant...who has been working in Democratic politics since he served on Clinton-Gore’s campaign team in the 1990s", somehow I don't consider those opinions to be derived from a sincere place so much as in having a direct personal interest in a different, more pro-corporate sort of Democrat winning.

Yeah, should have precised "establishment" Democrats

And their Maths and how they calculate are way off:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gjV7PZn8WOA

It's fine. Don't tell the DNC Bernie won NH and silently move to Nevada. If the DNC watches MSNBC, they may not notice Bernies win.



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Jaicee said:
Moren said:

Given the trend in 2018, would you say a Sanders ticket would complicate efforts to flip the Texas State Legislature?

Nope. First of all because I don't see anyone flipping the Texas state legislature any time soon and secondly because the reality of the matter is that the more left-leaning, inspiring candidates candidates who could turn out a movement fared better in 2018 than their more conservative counterparts. I mean seriously, while Andrew Gillum and Beto O'Rourke might have lost their respective races (as arguments against nominating more leftish, populistic Democrats routinely point out), they fared better than the conservative Democratic incumbents in other red states; they came closer to winning their statewide races in general.

Hmh. The party (yes, the same party that some petty people here can't miss a chance to shit on out of thin air :D ) and Beto (https://www.texastribune.org/2019/12/17/beto-orourkes-2020-focus-flipping-texas-house/ ) are putting strong efforts on flipping the State House this year and there actually is a lot of optimism, given there's plenty of places Beto won where they can pick up seats. 

So I remain hopeful on the State House - that would prevent a decade of gerrymandering. Whichever weakness Sanders might have, I'm hopeful it is offset by strong Hispanic support.

Last edited by Moren - on 16 February 2020

Since there's concern about Texas, let me give you all some good news.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/02/14/bernie-sanders-leading-texas-ahead-super-tuesday-uttt-poll-says/

Here's a poll through YouGov, they're not particularly left leaning or Sanders loving. They show Sanders leading the primary, and Trump leading every Dem contender in Texas. How is that good news? It comes amazingly close, and Sanders is the closest! Within the margin of error even! He performs the best, at least of the major candidates. Oddly enough, the other candidate that did well was Yang.

From the article:

"But when pitted against some of the top Democrats in hypothetical head-to-head contests, the president topped them all, if somewhat narrowly. Trump would beat Sanders by 2 percentage points, 47%-45%, within the poll’s margin of error. He’d beat Biden 47-43, Warren 47-44, Bloomberg 46-41, Buttigieg 47-42, and Klobuchar 46-41. Trump had 45% support against Yang’s 43%. The president, whose reelect number was under 50% in the survey, didn't get a majority of the vote in any of the matchups, even while getting more support than each Democrat."

As it says at the end of my quote there, the survey also asked about who would reelect Trump, and his numbers were pretty lousy for Texas. Only 80% definite yes for Republicans, while 88% definite no from Democrats, and Independents lean heavily no, with 48% definite no to only 25% definite yes. That adds up to an overall of 40% definite yes to 47% definite no, and with the probable yes and no thrown in that's 48% to 52%. So Trump is INCREDIBLY weak in Texas, and Bernie has the best chance of beating him there, per a pollster that has never particularly favored him or Democrats.

Also in Texas, another poll through YouGov, this time the generic congressional ballot:

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1228208833131995136?s=20

It shows Dems LEADING the generic congressional ballot by +3! Seeing as voters probably expect Sanders to win the nomination, having him at the top of the ticket is probably factored into a lot of people's congressional decisions at this point, so if Sander's is a drag on them, it's not by enough. Texas is definitely already a swing state. Democrats might not win it this time, but they also very well might, and even if they don't, it's still definitely purple now and they'll win it soon enough.



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Jaicee said:

Conversely though, the public is more moderate than the progressive Democrats on social policy. The general public broadly supports same-sex marriage, but believes that abortion is immoral and should only be legal in the first trimester. Similarly, opinion polling consistently suggests that the public broadly opposes Trump's border wall, supports the introduction of a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, and believes that immigrants are fundamentally good for the country. However, the polling also indicates that the public is, conversely, broadly against affording undocumented immigrants with access to taxpayer-funded programs of social uplift like Medicare and Medicaid, and certainly opposes abolishing ICE. (The Latino community has a different opinion on some of those things, but I'm talking public opinion in the country overall.) Also, 60% of Americans support the death penalty.

Oh and Jaicee? You mentioned that you don't think abortion is popular, well that's not entirely true, actually. It's way more popular than it seems.

https://jacobinmag.com/2019/05/abortion-rights-polling-opinion-democracy

Read this article, I think you'll find it interesting. There's a lot of interesting points to digest in it, but perhaps the most interesting is that abortion "for any reason" is reaching 50% support and based on support by birth cohort looks likely to pass 50% soon if it hasn't already.



An interesting viewpoint:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZAIIT9sSKkY



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Mnementh said:

An interesting viewpoint:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZAIIT9sSKkY

This is becoming laughable. The second Sanders becomes the nominee, Murdoch-owned Fox News will go on a relentless 24/7 campaign of smears from anti-Semitism to socialism to support for foreign dictators to out of context quotes from the 80s - you name it. They'll probably take the clips from these useful idiots to try and weaponize them as well.

It's sad that the progressive hate for mainstream Democrats is being used by Fox News in such a blatant and transparent way.

And to her main point, no. How are they spoilers when most Democrats poll well against Trump? Was Sanders a spoiler when Biden was a frontrunner? Conventional wisdom would say the non-Sanders Democrats are playing spoiler to each other, but whatever fans the DNC conspiracy theories.

Last edited by Moren - on 16 February 2020

While progressives fawn over Fox News and bash the Democratic Party, the RNC hauls enormous amounts of cash for down ballot races.

Like anyone here actually cares.



Moren said:
While progressives fawn over Fox News and bash the Democratic Party, the RNC hauls enormous amounts of cash for down ballot races.

Like anyone here actually cares.

You are pretty bitter and your comments show the disdain towards the progressive part. But the central thing of the progressives is, that they want actual improvements for the lifes of the common people. And if a conservative democrat is not bringing these improvements, progressive often asks how these democrats are better than republicans. It's as simple as that. What you say and what many of these conservative democrats are saying is that progressive prefer republicans over democrats. And that's simply not the case.

EDIT: And by the way, this is the reason Trump won over Hillary. Many people had supported so often democrats, only to see that these democrats gave a shit about their situation and did nothing to improve their lifes. And Clinton was standing for this part of the democratic party. So the people stayed home at election day.

Last edited by Mnementh - on 16 February 2020

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