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Official 2020 US Election: Democratic Party Discussion

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Moren said:

The primaries also encompass US territories like Puerto Rico.

Okay, I'll let that slide as a good enough explanation.

Although I am kinda surprised that Puerto Rico and others are eligible to vote. Is there any particular reason why they aren't recognized as proper states?



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Moren said:
RolStoppable said:

It's in a month already? I guess the winner of the primaries is supposed to get about 10 months of a real campaign.

Is your prefered candidate in a good position to win most of the 57 states?

The first caucus is soon, and then the rest of primaries extend for months.

Yes. I'm giving Biden a 65% chance of winning, versus a 35% chance for Bernie, and 0% for everyone else.

Wait, you give Warren a 0% chance?



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RolStoppable said:
Moren said:

The primaries also encompass US territories like Puerto Rico.

Okay, I'll let that slide as a good enough explanation.

Although I am kinda surprised that Puerto Rico and others are eligible to vote. Is there any particular reason why they aren't recognized as proper states?

In that case they would get two seats in the senate and at least one in the house. Which would shift majorities in these chambers. And as the current majorities in the chambers vote about the issue - this is difficult.

But although they are not proper states of the US, the parties decided to let them vote in the primaries, to decide the presidential candidate.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Implications_of_Puerto_Rico%27s_current_political_status

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territories_of_the_United_States

Last edited by Mnementh - on 09 January 2020

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Mnementh said:
Moren said:

The first caucus is soon, and then the rest of primaries extend for months.

Yes. I'm giving Biden a 65% chance of winning, versus a 35% chance for Bernie, and 0% for everyone else.

Wait, you give Warren a 0% chance?

If you had asked me a few months ago, I would have called her the most likely to win the nomination.

I think her moment has passed. She isn't doing stellar with minorities, and she's having to battle with Pete for the anti-Bernie/anti-Biden voters. I think Warren is the kind of candidate who won't survive a disappointing Iowa/NH.

I think she was doing a good job trying to balance the progressive/moderate wings of the party (unlike Kamala who tried to do the same thing and failed), but it is a pretty delicate balancing act, and I think at some point in her campaign she lost it.



Mnementh said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

It also shows up in the polls. New polls where he leads in Iowa and New Hampshire, and on the national front, he gained 2 points in the latest Morning Consult poll and reached 23% - the highest he got since Biden announced his campaign (24%) and not far behind his highest point in this poll for these primaries (27%)

Is that so? So it is time to bring impeachement proceedings forward, so that the sitting senators (Sanders, Warren) get called back and have to sit in long hearings, while Biden and Buttigieg can campaign without competition.

Not gonna work, some news outlet (can't remember who) already explained that Bernie can allow to Jet himself from the Senate to the early States with the huge pile of cash he got from his donors and thus both do his work in the Senate and campaign on the forefront during the same day.

Moren said:
Mnementh said:

Wait, you give Warren a 0% chance?

If you had asked me a few months ago, I would have called her the most likely to win the nomination.

I think her moment has passed. She isn't doing stellar with minorities, and she's having to battle with Pete for the anti-Bernie/anti-Biden voters. I think Warren is the kind of candidate who won't survive a disappointing Iowa/NH.

I think she was doing a good job trying to balance the progressive/moderate wings of the party (unlike Kamala who tried to do the same thing and failed), but it is a pretty delicate balancing act, and I think at some point in her campaign she lost it.

It looks like she stopped dropping and is even slightly recovering now. Not enough to be a threat to Bernie and Biden for now but enough to keep everybody else at more than arm's length.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 09 January 2020

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538 now has a model for the outcome of the democratic primaries: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

They currently predict an average of 1484 pledged delegates for Biden (1990 are needed to snatch the nomination). 1018 are predicted for Sanders, 634 for Warren, 536 for Buttigieg. They give the odds of a candidate winning the majority (1990) of pledged delegates at 40% for Biden, 22% for Sanders, 14% for no one, 12% for Warren and 10% for Buttigieg.

They also have the states. I am surprised on the high variation of the model. To explain this a bit, they model the electorate and then run thousands of simulation with different paramters based on uncertainty in the data. So they have different outcomes and can give a probability. But for instance in 80% of these simulations gets Biden in Iowa between 4% and 49% of the votes, meaning there are 10% chance he gets even lower than 4% and 10% he gets higher than 49%. That is an incredibly broad range and shows a high level of uncertainty. Because of the 15% rule, for the allocation of the delegates there is a bit more certainty.

Remember, this will be updated as new data (polls, endorsements, financials, …) rolls in.

There is an explanation how the model works: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeight-2020-primary-model-works/



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UPDATE: Marianne Williamson has officially suspended her campaign.

Steyer has qualified for the 7th debate.  He took a different approach than practically all other candidates for any debate.  He gained state polls rather national polls.

Today is the last day to qualify but it is highly unlikely that anyone else does. That finalizes the debate to Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Steyer, Sanders and Warren.



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SpokenTruth said:
Moren said:

Bernie was in what came to be a two-way race that was very ideologically defined with an unpopular opponent, and still got trounced in the end.

Biden was in a very contested primary.

2016:
Sanders - 23 wins
Clinton - 34 wins

A huge accomplishment despite all the dismissed rigging.



LurkerJ said:
SpokenTruth said:

2016:
Sanders - 23 wins
Clinton - 34 wins

A huge accomplishment despite all the dismissed rigging.

Hopefully it'll be harder to rig this time around now that people are paying a lot more attention.



 

SpokenTruth said:

UPDATE: Marianne Williamson has officially suspended her campaign.

Steyer has qualified for the 7th debate.  He took a different approach than practically all other candidates for any debate.  He gained state polls rather national polls.

Today is the last day to qualify but it is highly unlikely that anyone else does. That finalizes the debate to Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Steyer, Sanders and Warren.

Poor Williamson... I enjoyed having her voice in the race. All those "crystal lady" dismissive attacks were unfair tbqh. Did she endorse anyone?