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Forums - Politics Discussion - Official 2020 US Election: Democratic Party Discussion

Fivethirtyeight has updated it's forecast with the preliminary data from Iowa:

Here is the article explaining this situation:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-post-iowa-primary-forecast-is-up-and-bidens-chances-are-down/

Last edited by Mnementh - on 05 February 2020

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Mnementh said:

Fivethirtyeight has updated it's forecast with the preliminary data from Iowa:

Here is the article explaining this situation:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-post-iowa-primary-forecast-is-up-and-bidens-chances-are-down/

For those wondering, Sanders had a 3/10 shot and Biden had a 4/10 shot before the Iowa Caucuses, according to 538's model. Sanders' chances shot up to where Biden used to be, and Biden fell well below where Sanders used to be. 

Biden needs a win or two before Super Tuesday or he's toast!



Cerebralbore101 said:
IOWA Votes Percent (71%) 2nd Round Percent (71%) SDE Del.
Sanders 31,428 24.4 32,772 26.2 394 11
Buttigieg 27,515 21.4 31,458 25.2 419 11
Warren 24,175 18.8 25,816 20.6 287 5
Biden 18,902 14.7 16,545 13.2 241 0
Klobuchar 16,474 12.8 15,598 12.5 197 0
Yang 6,720 5.2 1,301 1.0 16 0
Steyer 2,247 1.7 275 0.2 5 0

Don't let the Associated Press fool you. Bernie is winning Iowa, with Pete in a close 2nd. 

Andrew Yang has only 5% of the votes?

That's rather disappointing. Also this proves democracy sucks, I said Andrew Yang should be president, why are people not voting accordingly?



CrazyGamer2017 said:
Cerebralbore101 said:
IOWA Votes Percent (71%) 2nd Round Percent (71%) SDE Del.
Sanders 31,428 24.4 32,772 26.2 394 11
Buttigieg 27,515 21.4 31,458 25.2 419 11
Warren 24,175 18.8 25,816 20.6 287 5
Biden 18,902 14.7 16,545 13.2 241 0
Klobuchar 16,474 12.8 15,598 12.5 197 0
Yang 6,720 5.2 1,301 1.0 16 0
Steyer 2,247 1.7 275 0.2 5 0

Don't let the Associated Press fool you. Bernie is winning Iowa, with Pete in a close 2nd. 

Andrew Yang has only 5% of the votes?

That's rather disappointing. Also this proves democracy sucks, I said Andrew Yang should be president, why are people not voting accordingly?

Half the country cant even wrap their minds around single payer healthcare and you expect them to support universal basic income?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
CrazyGamer2017 said:

Andrew Yang has only 5% of the votes?

That's rather disappointing. Also this proves democracy sucks, I said Andrew Yang should be president, why are people not voting accordingly?

Half the country cant even wrap their minds around single payer healthcare and you expect them to support universal basic income?

Well, vote for me and if I get elected, every single one of you will get a 1000 dollars every month, no conditions, no questions asked for the rest of your life meaning that unless you are extremely stupid in the way you manage your money you should never EVER be extremely poor in your life, you'll at least for sure have enough to eat every day and adding to that a job, you should be doing more than ok as this UBI is not taken away when you have a job...

I'd have imagined this would stick in people's head like a giant blue flag that you don't wanna miss no matter what but I guess I was mistaken?



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Soo.. Any word (excuse) as to why the hell Iowa Dems have still only released 71% of the results other than to cherry pick and push a narrative that Pete is winning over Bernie? XD



 

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DarthMetalliCube said:
Soo.. Any word (excuse) as to why the hell Iowa Dems have still only released 71% of the results other than to cherry pick and push a narrative that Pete is winning over Bernie? XD

I was gonna post about all the discrepancies and such here, but I'm somewhat tired. I personally think Iowa should be thrown out and redone on super tuesday in an actual primary. There's too much that went wrong that regardless of the results, anyone will believe it, or have faith that its accurate. btw, this alone might have given trump another 4 years because it has depressed the electorate. Good job Dems.

Last edited by uran10 - on 05 February 2020

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uran10 said:
DarthMetalliCube said:
Soo.. Any word (excuse) as to why the hell Iowa Dems have still only released 71% of the results other than to cherry pick and push a narrative that Pete is winning over Bernie? XD

I was gonna post about all the discrepancies and such here, but I'm somewhat tired. I personally think Iowa should be thrown out and redone on super tuesday in an actual primary. There's too much that went wrong that regardless of the results, anyone will believe it, or have faith that its accurate. btw, this alone might have given trump another 4 years because it has depressed the electorate. Good job Dems.

Eh let's not get too hasty. Iowa is one state. Nevada democratic party officials have already said they're abandoning the problematic, biased app that caused this issue. iirc the Sanders team had already figured something fishy was gonna happen so they had people at every caucus precinct accurately recording all the results and have met with the Iowa Democratic party with lawyers to hash out this mess. For better or for worse it'll be sorted properly. There's still many months until November, hold on hope.

Last edited by tsogud - on 05 February 2020

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/02/04/us/elections/results-iowa-caucus.html
95% reporting. Pete will probably win the delegates and Sanders the popular vote.



Why release partial results at all? It just muddies the waters. They should have released the results only when they had 100% of the info. They already fucked up election night, what's the rush?