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Official 2020 US Election: Democratic Party Discussion

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SpokenTruth said:

Qualifies for debates via …
 
Candidate Polls Donors Both
 
Bill de Blasio

Wait really? He has announced and instantly got 65K donors?



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018

Predictions: Switch / Switch vs. XB1 in the US / Three Houses first quarter

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Mnementh said:
SpokenTruth said:

Qualifies for debates via …
 
Candidate Polls Donors Both
 
Bill de Blasio

Wait really? He has announced and instantly got 65K donors?

They count donations made prior to official campaign announcements.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

Welp that was fast, although somehow I knew it was coming.. Apparently Pete and his staff seem to have already been pressured and bullied into steering clear of the Dave Rubin show. Forget it then. Tough for me to hold any respect for the man if all it takes for him to cave are a handful of twitter brats and a few puritanical media outlets. I'll just go on supporting Yang/Tulsi/Bernie...



DarthMetalliCube said:
Welp that was fast, although somehow I knew it was coming.. Apparently Pete and his staff seem to have already been pressured and bullied into steering clear of the Dave Rubin show. Forget it then. Tough for me to hold any respect for the man if all it takes for him to cave are a handful of twitter brats and a few puritanical media outlets. I'll just go on supporting Yang/Tulsi/Bernie...

Check out Gravel. He definitely won't make it, but if you check him out, I bet you'll wish he made it farther.



Listed below is information on the campaign finances for each candidate.  I have ordered them from highest to lowest for contribution percentage under $200.  This typically shows a separation between grass roots campaign and corporate financed campaigns. Any candidate under 50% is on my no-go list.

Ojeda withdrew in Jan. Those that 'did not file' were not required to file with the FEC at the time of this chart because they had not officially announced their campaigns at the time. 'ind. contrib. = Individual Contributions. COH = Cash On Hand.

Campaign committee (January 1, 2017 to March 31, 2019)
Total raised Ind. contrib. <$200
donations
(as % of
ind.contrib)
Debt Spent COH
Sanders $20,688,027 $18,186,300 84.03% $0 $5,026,077 $15,661,950
Warren $16,482,752 $6,016,435 70.30% $0 $5,267,562 $11,215,191
Buttigieg $7,091,224 $7,086,155 64.02% $0 $685,295 $6,405,930
Yang $2,387,537 $2,385,475 63.64% $0 $1,286,813 $1,151,702
Ojeda $119,478 $77,476 62.91% $44,373 $117,476 $2,002
Williamson $1,546,975 $1,544,697 60.39% $105,017 $997,471 $549,504
O'Rourke $9,373,261 $9,369,861 59.15% $0 $2,511,056 $6,862,206
Gabbard $4,495,770 $1,949,075 54.75% $0 $1,706,544 $2,789,226
Harris $13,243,551 $12,024,122 36.77% $65,000 $4,285,426 $8,958,125
Klobuchar $8,832,322 $5,232,376 34.60% $0 $1,849,949 $6,982,373
Inslee $2,256,655 $2,255,455 34.00% $365,195 $843,775 $1,412,881
Castro $1,321,029 $1,306,329 30.20% $19,285 $643,374 $677,655
Messam $43,532 $43,532 26.58% $0 $1,701 $41,830
Gillibrand $12,601,580 $2,997,884 16.68% $0 $2,433,078 $10,168,502
Booker $7,923,204 $5,044,390 15.97% $51,989 $1,792,194 $6,131,010
Hickenlooper $2,020,683 $2,014,099 9.97% $0 $685,514 $1,335,169
Delaney $18,301,623 $1,681,310 6.96% $17,443,250 $7,781,888 $10,567,865
Bennet did not file
Biden did not file
Bullock did not file
de Blasio did not file
Gravel did not file
Moulton did not file
Ryan did not file
Swalwell did not file


Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

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Great work on that campaign finances chart, SpokenTruth.

Can't wait for the debates. I doubt much of anything substantial will happen on this front until then.



The DNC apparently has released the the qualifying criteria for the third debate. This time both criteria (unique donors and polling) have to be met and both criteria have higher thresholds. You need both:

  • 135,000 unique donors
  • four polls released between June 28 and August 28 with 2% or higher for the candidate

Looking at the current field, this will be hard to achieve for a lot of contenders. So for the third debate probably less than 10 contenders will qualify.

Nate Silver from 538 has made a quick analysis: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/silver-bulletpoints-whos-in-danger-of-missing-the-third-debate/



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018

Predictions: Switch / Switch vs. XB1 in the US / Three Houses first quarter

Mnementh said:

The DNC apparently has released the the qualifying criteria for the third debate. This time both criteria (unique donors and polling) have to be met and both criteria have higher thresholds. You need both:

  • 135,000 unique donors
  • four polls released between June 28 and August 28 with 2% or higher for the candidate

Looking at the current field, this will be hard to achieve for a lot of contenders. So for the third debate probably less than 10 contenders will qualify.

Nate Silver from 538 has made a quick analysis: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/silver-bulletpoints-whos-in-danger-of-missing-the-third-debate/

It should have been this from the start.

The wide field is favoring Uncle Joe, and I don't think he'd fare much better than Hillary with his creepy antics.

(edit: that is probably enough to defeat Trump, but I'm thinking more about the potential to help state and local elections)

Last edited by haxxiy - on 04 June 2019

 

 

 

 

 

UPDATE:

Former Georgia Representative Stacey Abrams is the last potential candidate with a known interest in running. She has an expected campaign announcement prior to September.

Also, the 3rd debate is now scheduled for September 12th (plus 13th if a second night is still needed though that's very doubtful if they double the qualification rules again)



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

September? Seriously? Stacey, you're amazing, but seriously, go run for an office in Georgia already. This is getting ridiculous.