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Forums - Politics Discussion - Official 2020 US Election: Democratic Party Discussion

Mnementh said:
Something interesting is happening currently: Sanders did not break 20% in average national polling since Biden entered the race - until now. Both in the RCP and the 538 average:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/

Also Bloomberg is currently in the process of overtaking Buttigieg.

Yeah, and Sanders is still rising. Here's the aggregate of Wikipedia from the aggregates (538, 270 to win, economist and RCP):

The Blue line on top is Biden. As one can clearly see, he didn't gain votes from the different candidates dropping out of the race and stayed mostly flat since September.

Bernie is the green line below, and he's catching up on Biden, fast! He reached the same amount as he did in early spring, before Biden announced his candidacy, and doesn't show any signs of slowing down.

Warren is the dark red line. She seems to stay around 15% now since she dropped down from her heights in Fall.

The Yellow line is Buttigieg. He had a little jump in December, but quickly dropped down again.

In violet, we have Bloomberg. You can really see his millions he's pumping into this race, and it allowed him to come to the same level as Buttigieg.

Oh, and for those who wondered why I didn't say anything about the gray line, those are the undecided and other candidates (other excluding Klobuchar (pink) and Yang (light blue); also Harris (orange), Beto (brown) and Booker (olive), who all dropped out already). But one can clearly see that Bernie and Bloomberg are winning the votes of the undecided as of late.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 24 January 2020

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Bernie should really capitalize on this and not change his mind like he did with Cenk. I understand that Joe Rogan has said some offensive things that some people in the progressive moment may dislike but there are few people who could turn Trump voters to Bernie like Rogan can. Just the sheer size of his audience dwarfs most channels in youtube.



I've seen a lot of people (who would never vote Bernie anyway) come out and get outraged at Joe Rogan's endorsement and completely miss the point of touting this. Remember all the talk about Bernie not being able to win over conservative view points and such? This doesn't exactly apply to Rogan as he's said he's never voted republican but more to his huge audience that was exposed to it. Getting this vote is important because Rogan has had on People from all across the political spectrum and this is the conclusion he came to. Yes he's got some bad views on certain topics but it doesn't change the fact that he's had influences from all across the political spectrum and chose Bernie. His audience under the Podcast with Bernie came around to him and his subreddit is literally rallying to get registered to vote for Bernie in the Primary. This is Huge. And this isn't like the Cenk situation because Bernie isn't endorsing Joe, its Joe endorsing Bernie and it proves he can attract more independent minded voters which, mind you, is needed to win the general. Just putting this out there, have a good Saturday guys.

As for the election outlook, its do or die time for Bernie and this would be the case regardless. He has to win Both Iowa and NH or Biden will most likely win the nomination. Its looking good, but if you're volunteering and such don't let up. We need to carry this over the finish line.



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uran10 said:

As for the election outlook, its do or die time for Bernie and this would be the case regardless. He has to win Both Iowa and NH or Biden will most likely win the nomination. Its looking good, but if you're volunteering and such don't let up. We need to carry this over the finish line.

While the two last polls in Iowa have pulled his numbers down (but seriously, Breitbart and Rural America being the sponsors, I don't trust those at all), Bernie is very close to Biden in the polls in Iowa, enough to possibly beat him in the end. He's leading in NH by a fair margin and even catched up to Biden in Nevada now. South Carolina might end up being the first win for Biden as he's leading there by about 20 points, so chances to beat him there are very slim.

However, where I see a major danger for Biden is not just Bernie beating him in Iowa and/or NH, but that there's a risk he's getting beaten there by Buttigieg and possibly (though much more unlikely by now) even Warren. Landing on the third or even fourth spot in any early state would blow the wind right out of his sails, costing him a lot of momentum that will be very difficult to regain.

Of course, the same could happen to Bernie to a degree, but being slightly behind wouldn't kill his bid unlike Biden's who's running on electability... and that myth would be broken the moment he's falling back in elections.



Spike0503 said:



I am not sure why people are surprised Joe Rogan endorsed him. If you listen to Joe regularly, you'd know that he's a principled person and he changes his mind on things regularly once he's exposed to more facts. He didn't gain such a fan base from the left and right by being an obtuse or a dense person. His views on trans people aren't bigotry like the black in the video is suggesting. Jo Ro doesn't hesitate to engage in an uncomfortable to get to the truth. 

Why is it that people on the left are so eager to cancel someone for merely arguing against trans participating in women sports, or giving children puberty blockers is beyond me. As long as their opinion has solid logic behind it so be it. 



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https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2020/01/25/des-moines-register-editorial-board-endorses-elizabeth-warren/4577837002/

Des Moines Register has endorsed Warren. Pretty nice get for her. I thought it would be Biden, but she probably was much better at the interview process.

Now now, if only this were to ensure she remains above 15%, and at the same time she snags some of Pete's voters and it pushes him below 15%...



To think Warren lost so much momentum just because she detailed how her medicare proposal would be paid for. She was even below Mr. Meme with 18-29 year-olds in one of the recent polls (although the Yang Gang have been, by their own admission, manipulating polls using Amazon's MTurk service). And Bloomberg is getting up there too, Steyer as well in some of the early states...

It would seem that even among enlightened Democratic voters, to be relentlessly bombarded by propaganda and empty promises actually is a winning strategy. Trump had it right all along.




 

 

 

 

 

haxxiy said:

To think Warren lost so much momentum just because she detailed how her medicare proposal would be paid for. She was even below Mr. Meme with 18-29 year-olds in one of the recent polls (although the Yang Gang have been, by their own admission, manipulating polls using Amazon's MTurk service). And Bloomberg is getting up there too, Steyer as well in some of the early states...

It would seem that even among enlightened Democratic voters, to be relentlessly bombarded by propaganda and empty promises actually is a winning strategy. Trump had it right all along.


I think you're missing the point with Warren's fall. It was how she detailed her plan, but its because her plan sucks. I'm going to fight like hell for the public option then on year 3 for single payer? On top of that I'll add a regressive head tax into the equation. Sorry but no, you're having the entirely wrong takeaway from Warren's fall. M4A waffling then trying to answer the how do we pay for it with a terrible plan started it, then going after the most trustworthy candidate on a he said she said finished it. Especially since she's a known liar, she dug her own grave and really quickly too.

On the other hand, Bernie's M4A is straight forward, CHEAPER than our current system and he's already told us a million times how he'd pay for it so anyone trying to say "it'll bankrupt the country" either hasn't been listening or is a propagandist for the health industry.

People aren't looking for empty promises. They're looking to change the system that doesn't work for them. Trump ran as a populist and said he would do just that (drain the swamp). He didn't. He's become a swamp monster but if you put him up against another swamp monster, especially one with the record of Joe he'll win, with ease with the exact same strat. He's said it himself numerous times, hell he even admits in a secret recording that he's afraid of Bernie.

Anyway I've drifted off topic a bit. Bloomberg and Steyer are billionaires with essentially unlimited money to sink into ads. People are seeing those ads and are going "maybe one of them". They're essentially trying to buy the elections, that's how they're rising. Either way, empty promises isn't the way and unfortunately for americans, we've got a mainstream(corporate) media that just feeds us propaganda non stop and thankfully people are starting to see through it but not fast enough.



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uran10 said:
haxxiy said:

I think you're missing the point with Warren's fall. It was how she detailed her plan, but its because her plan sucks. I'm going to fight like hell for the public option then on year 3 for single payer? On top of that I'll add a regressive head tax into the equation. Sorry but no, you're having the entirely wrong takeaway from Warren's fall. M4A waffling then trying to answer the how do we pay for it with a terrible plan started it, then going after the most trustworthy candidate on a he said she said finished it. Especially since she's a known liar, she dug her own grave and really quickly too.

On the other hand, Bernie's M4A is straight forward, CHEAPER than our current system and he's already told us a million times how he'd pay for it so anyone trying to say "it'll bankrupt the country" either hasn't been listening or is a propagandist for the health industry.

People aren't looking for empty promises. They're looking to change the system that doesn't work for them. Trump ran as a populist and said he would do just that (drain the swamp). He didn't. He's become a swamp monster but if you put him up against another swamp monster, especially one with the record of Joe he'll win, with ease with the exact same strat. He's said it himself numerous times, hell he even admits in a secret recording that he's afraid of Bernie.

Anyway I've drifted off topic a bit. Bloomberg and Steyer are billionaires with essentially unlimited money to sink into ads. People are seeing those ads and are going "maybe one of them". They're essentially trying to buy the elections, that's how they're rising. Either way, empty promises isn't the way and unfortunately for americans, we've got a mainstream(corporate) media that just feeds us propaganda non stop and thankfully people are starting to see through it but not fast enough.

Politics are the art of compromise. Sanders shows time and time again how fantastically poor his judgement is when it comes to the people around him, and the people he endorses or is endorsed by. He's worse than Trump in this regard, because at least Trump knew how to appease evangelicans and the republican base when it came to choose a vice-president, and I don't see Sanders ever doing the same.

Now combine that lack of goodwill with the political reality of dozens if not hundreds of elected officials in purple or light blue states, including senators like Brown, Manchin, Sinema etc Essentially nothing you believe it's going to happen will ever get through Congress. Warren at least had a plan to present something palatable to most interests involved, perhaps enough to get a vote through.

Of course, feel free to shout then that the estabilishment is keeping Sanders from using his magical wand, or that obscure corporate interests are sabotaging the presidency, all the way through a red wave in 2020 and someone like DeSantis coming for the presidential chair in 2022.



 

 

 

 

 

haxxiy said:

Of course, feel free to shout then that the estabilishment is keeping Sanders from using his magical wand, or that obscure corporate interests are sabotaging the presidency, all the way through a red wave in 2020 and someone like DeSantis coming for the presidential chair in 2022.

Fun fact about DeSantis:

We lost an easy-to-win, historically important (due to voting rights, 2020 redistricting) governor race in a blue wave year because Bernie chose to endorse a far-left candidate in Florida and the moderates split the vote during the primary.