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Official 2020 US Election: Democratic Party Discussion

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HylianSwordsman said:
haxxiy said:

I regard MN, IA, WI, OH, MI and PA to be elastic to semi-elastic swing states. IA and OH being the most elastic, MN, WI, MI and PA being less so. The former group is so elastic it finds itself on either side of the aisle from one election to the next all the time. The latter group is significantly less elastic, and usually follow each other, with MN lagging to the left of the other three, enough that it hasn't voted D since before Reagan. I personally believe we've reached a Republican high water mark for the latter group, and that a trend has started that will send it back the other way. Basing that mostly on polls and 2018 results. I'm also optimistic that Iowa will swing back for us as well, based on 2018 performance. OH is a harder one to read, but I think we've got a chance to flip it too. It usually follows the others a bit to the right. I certainly hope it swings, though, because the last time it voted against the winner was 1960. And even when the other 5 voted together for the Democrat, Ohio went for Bush in 2000 and that...ended very poorly...

That might be so, but only because in past election cycles, Democrats still appealed to non-college educated rural Whites instead of suburbanites. So the coalitions that led Reps or Dems in the past to victory or defeat are different now. And the Midwest has these non-college educated White voters by the bucketload - way above the average for the US and more than even the South. These people can shift quite dramatically from blue to red and stick with it, as West Virginia proves.



 

 

 

 

 

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Seems the media are blacking out Bernie for real, this will just hurt the country in the long run.. damn

  



If you're considering Mayor Pete you might want to check out this thread to see what kind of individual he really is. @cycycychris 

Last edited by uran10 - on 09 December 2019

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In another case of Tulsi being right.



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Gabbard and Yang have 3 more days to get that last qualifying poll. It's starting to look bad for them both. I really expected both of them to get it.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

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uran10 said:

Personally I only see Bernie winning, though I can admit that both Yang and Tulsi's crossover support make it possible for them to beat Trump as well. Everyone else is just setting trump up for re-election sadly.

Talking out of my ass of course - and also looking at tons of info, rhetoric, and opinions from people all over the political spectrum (and probably also personal bias too admittedly). But I pretty much agree, I honestly think Yang and Tulsi have the best chance to beat Trump by far. Why? B/c they have crossover support. That is what you need to win elections.

Sure, you could say the general is a different story but the end game is to beat Trump, right? It's going to be tough to inspire a high voter turnout for Centrist corporatists like Biden, Warren, and Buttigieg b/c many will ask themselves, well, what's the point? You could argue the point is to beat Trump, but what exactly, on a fundamental level, is the drastic alternative these centrists are offering that's so different and improved from Trump in the first place? Especially with a guy like Biden who literally insults his own voters, has a ton of baggage, and is basically a Neocon running as a Dem, or Pete who can't even commit to M4A or loan forgiveness, and claims he won't even meet with our adversaries when even Obama was on record saying he'd be willing to do so.

Bernie definitely has a chance to win - mainly b/c of the Rust Belt/Mid West, which, as a Midwesterner, I can tell you, Bernie was FAR more popular here in 2016 than Hillary, thanks mainly b/c of his opposition to trade deals which have screwed over our economy. Still, I do think Bernie will have a hard time shaking off what many perceive to be a farther left "socialist" angle which many in America seem to fear. I'll admit, he's a bit far left for me, but I'd certainly vote for him and still very much prefer him to both Trump and Neolib corporatist candidates. He'd almost certainly draw more voters than Hillary, and still appeals to some independents, though might turn off some moderates.

Yang and Tulsi are more interesting - as they're both more outside the political establishment, and come off as moderates in some ways that draw crossover support, while at the same time many of their ideas are actually pretty significantly left wing and seem to offer real positive change. They also tend to be more grounded in modern day society and more in tune with the issues facing young people, especially Yang. This is why I think they'd be the best candidates to beat Trump. 

Unfortunately, the media is a powerful mechanism that can easily sway millions of minds. Hell, they've convinced millions upon millions of people that Tulsi, the progressive vegan woman of color from Hawaii, who plays the ukelele, serves her country in the National Guard, and advocates peace, is somehow a "traitor," "dangerous," "supports dictators," a "Russian Asset," or a number of other preposterous fearmongering garbage. She was once the Democrat darling and future prospect but as soon as she supports Bernie and goes against the Clinton machine she's suddenly evil incarnate. This is the power of the MSN to manipulate people's minds. It's not easy to overcome that level of power and influence.

While their influence is declining, I do fear that between their reach, and that of the Dem establishment who clearly does not want these two in their party, that they won't even have a chance to be the nominee in the first place to beat Trump. But I do honestly believe the Dem establishment are ironically a bigger threat to Tulsi and Yang than Trump is.

The only REALISTIC hope to beat Trump at this point is Bernie, which he could definitely do - though we'd have to see it he still has the Rust Belt like in 2016. 



DarthMetalliCube said:
uran10 said:

Personally I only see Bernie winning, though I can admit that both Yang and Tulsi's crossover support make it possible for them to beat Trump as well. Everyone else is just setting trump up for re-election sadly.

Talking out of my ass of course - and also looking at tons of info, rhetoric, and opinions from people all over the political spectrum (and probably also personal bias too admittedly). But I pretty much agree, I honestly think Yang and Tulsi have the best chance to beat Trump by far. Why? B/c they have crossover support. That is what you need to win elections.

Sure, you could say the general is a different story but the end game is to beat Trump, right? It's going to be tough to inspire a high voter turnout for Centrist corporatists like Biden, Warren, and Buttigieg b/c many will ask themselves, well, what's the point? You could argue the point is to beat Trump, but what exactly, on a fundamental level, is the drastic alternative these centrists are offering that's so different and improved from Trump in the first place? Especially with a guy like Biden who literally insults his own voters, has a ton of baggage, and is basically a Neocon running as a Dem, or Pete who can't even commit to M4A or loan forgiveness, and claims he won't even meet with our adversaries when even Obama was on record saying he'd be willing to do so.

Bernie definitely has a chance to win - mainly b/c of the Rust Belt/Mid West, which, as a Midwesterner, I can tell you, Bernie was FAR more popular here in 2016 than Hillary, thanks mainly b/c of his opposition to trade deals which have screwed over our economy. Still, I do think Bernie will have a hard time shaking off what many perceive to be a farther left "socialist" angle which many in America seem to fear. I'll admit, he's a bit far left for me, but I'd certainly vote for him and still very much prefer him to both Trump and Neolib corporatist candidates. He'd almost certainly draw more voters than Hillary, and still appeals to some independents, though might turn off some moderates.

Yang and Tulsi are more interesting - as they're both more outside the political establishment, and come off as moderates in some ways that draw crossover support, while at the same time many of their ideas are actually pretty significantly left wing and seem to offer real positive change. They also tend to be more grounded in modern day society and more in tune with the issues facing young people, especially Yang. This is why I think they'd be the best candidates to beat Trump. 

Unfortunately, the media is a powerful mechanism that can easily sway millions of minds. Hell, they've convinced millions upon millions of people that Tulsi, the progressive vegan woman of color from Hawaii, who plays the ukelele, serves her country in the National Guard, and advocates peace, is somehow a "traitor," "dangerous," "supports dictators," a "Russian Asset," or a number of other preposterous fearmongering garbage. She was once the Democrat darling and future prospect but as soon as she supports Bernie and goes against the Clinton machine she's suddenly evil incarnate. This is the power of the MSN to manipulate people's minds. It's not easy to overcome that level of power and influence.

While their influence is declining, I do fear that between their reach, and that of the Dem establishment who clearly does not want these two in their party, that they won't even have a chance to be the nominee in the first place to beat Trump. But I do honestly believe the Dem establishment are ironically a bigger threat to Tulsi and Yang than Trump is.

The only REALISTIC hope to beat Trump at this point is Bernie, which he could definitely do - though we'd have to see it he still has the Rust Belt like in 2016. 

I'll have to disagree on the socialist stuff and him not being able to appeal to moderates. Moderates in the way the media uses it literally means center right to right wing. Unfortunately for the media, the true nature of the American public is not that. Look up the individual issues that Bernie has been stumping for and you'll find that most of them are overwhelmingly popular with the American people.

The American people unfortunately don't really vote ideologically, but that's also a boost for Bernie. Bernie has 3 major advantages in a race vs Trump and its why he has the overall highest chance to win. 1st He has crossover support. Its Tulsi with the most, followed by Bernie, followed by Yang. He Already eats into trump's base while the other "top candidates" don't. 2nd His record. Bernie's 40 year record of saying the same things leads to polls of him being the most trusted etc. The American people vote more on "trust" and belief than based on the ideas you present and that's why when someone starts to waffle on their ideas they lose support majorly. More of us are now on the policy train which also helps but at the same time, they want to know you're fighting for them and that you will fight for them. Not just talk a big game (thanks Obama). 3rd and Most importantly, He attracts new voters and lapsed voters to come out of the woodwork. This means he increases voter turn out and when do Democrats see sweeping victories? With high voter turn out. In short I think you're underestimating Bernie's outsider status and his appeal. You also underestimate his ground game and the amount of volunteers and such he has (me included). The man has the best infrastructure and over 1 million volunteers, more than anyone else going around knocking doors and that's the real strength he has.

If Bernie is on the ballot in the general the dems will extend their lead in the house, and they have the best shot of actually taking back the senate.

But its Like you said somewhat, the Dem establishment is the bigger threat to Yang, Tulsi and Bernie. The Bernie Black out is part of their doing. The Media is also smearing the hell out of him and doctoring pictures etc. I can say 1 thing tho, as long as Tulsi and Yang don't hit 15% in Iowa Bernie wins Iowa in a Landslide victory. I've stated this before but Yang and Tulsi supporters overlap heavily with Bernie supporters, they will both outperform polls because they both appeal to newer voters, some that Bernie wouldn't reach but still view Bernie favorably. In Iowa with how the caucus works there will be a realignment for those who didn't hit 15% and with over 80% of Tulsi and Yang People on the Bernie 2nd choice train, they'll caucus with his folks and gg.

In Fact Iowa is going to be very interesting, expect Biden to under perform as well and I wouldn't be shocked, and I'm serious here, I wouldn't be shocked if Biden doesn't hit over 15 while Warren and Pete Barely go over 15. This would be an overwhelming blow to the establishment too because Biden supporters 2nd choice if this happens? Also Bernie. Iowa will set the stage for the rest of the primary and Bernie is set up to win it and with how the media keeps downplaying and acting like he has no shot in Iowa or the Primary in General, that one win especially if it goes the way I describe would shock the living hell out of the establishment, cause a freakout and make the impact even bigger.

Anyway I want you to look at Bernie's platform, ignore the labels, ignore the "left or too far left" nonsense and just go down his platform 1 by 1. You'll be surprised to find that most people agree in america agree with everything he's saying. When most people agree with your position, that's not far left, that's the real centrist position of the country.

Last edited by uran10 - on 10 December 2019

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Krystal Ball on how Bernie can break the establishment

@Mnementh @HylianSwordsman @DarthMetalliCube  I think you'd enjoy this one and this is what I've been saying Bernie should do as president and the funniest part is he's already done it back when he was mayor.

Last edited by uran10 - on 10 December 2019

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Uran said he's a volunteer for Bernie and I think it'd be fun to know how many of us here are volunteer/paid campaign staff for our candidate of choice. So are any of you part of your candidates campaign?

I'm also a volunteer for Bernie. I regularly canvass, make calls, and go to and help out with events. I've also tabled a few times. Btw we're seeing incredible enthusiasm y'all and from people who don't normally vote!

Last edited by tsogud - on 10 December 2019

 

Yang is in.

Gabbard is out by choice. She has declined to attend even if she qualified.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."